Because Pandemic has Depressed Birthrate, Russian Population May Decline Yet More Rapidly, Demographers Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 30 – The more significant population losses caused by the pandemic may come only after it ends, the result of Russians deciding in large numbers not to have children and of men who have been infected with the coronavirus becoming in some cases infertile (ng.ru/economics/2020-06-30/1_7898_demographics.html and ura.news/news/1052438712).

            Despite these projections, budgetary stringencies have prompted the Russian authorities to cut 140 billion rubles (two billion US dollars) from its planned spending over the next two years on the national project for demography, the finance ministry says. Other national projects have been reduced but by smaller amounts (svpressa.ru/economy/article/269553/).

            New cases of infection officially reported continued to fall, to 6556 over the last 24 hours, bringing the cumulative total to 655,000; but the number of deaths increased significantly to 216 during that period, bringing the total mortality figures for the pandemic in Russia to 9536 (mbk-news.appspot.com/suzhet/koronavirus-v-rossii-xronika/).

            And the day before the referendum reports keep coming in that election officials have come down with the infection, reports that may or may not cause Russians to think twice about going to the polls. The latest such report is from the Altay Kray (znak.com/2020-06-30/ne_menee_30_chlenov_uik_zaboleli_koronavirusom_v_omskoy_oblasti_i_altayskom_krae).

            Because Vladimir Putin and other officials are saying the pandemic is ebbing in Russia and that a vaccine will soon be available, Russians are looking to the future. Many fear a second wave, and experts indicate that there are compelling reasons to believe that Russia won’t escape one (ura.news/articles/1036280525).

            But of particular concern are the results of a new Higher School of Economics poll which shows that a majority of Russians do not intend to get a vaccine if one becomes available because none of the people they know have come down with the coronavirus (ng.ru/health/2020-06-30/8_7898_covid19.html).

            In a related development, some Russians are calling for people to get more exercise and eat better in order to be better able to resist or withstand any such infection in the future (svpressa.ru/health/article/269630/).

            Despite the continuing spread of infections, Putin has issued the order for the summer exercises of reservists, exercises that will bring thousands of men into close contact and may lead to a new spread of the pandemic (ura.news/articles/1036280541).

            And openings and closings continued, emphasizing the diversity of the situation across Russia and the problems which arise from predicting the course of infection in that country on the basis of Moscow alone. The self-isolation regime has continued or been extended in many regions (regnum.ru/news/society/2997964.html).

            Russian officials are trying to figure out how to cope with the sudden appearance of a single infection in isolated villages (ura.news/news/1052438623) or to cope with a situation in which local hospitals no longer have space for those who need treatment and are turning people away (ura.news/news/1052438645).

            And while fitness clubs are opening in some big cities (znak.com/2020-06-30/v_peterburge_zarabotayut_fitnes_kluby_basseyny_i_muzei), the epidemiological situation in some parts of the country is so dire that officials in at least one case are digging trenches around a village to prevent people from entering or leaving (nazaccent.ru/content/33497-vokrug-zakrytogo-na-karantin-sela-v.html).

            But perhaps the most important “closing” as far as the Russian media were concerned involved the EU’s decision not to open its borders to Russian travelers, a decision that was more palatable because as Russian outlets invariably noted because it excludes people from the US as well (sobkorr.org/news/5EFB51A8B2386.html).

            Economic news continues to be uniformly bad. Fifteen million Russians are not at their jobs and at least 680,000 of them have lost their positions since the pandemic began, according to economics ministry (tass.ru/ekonomika/8844553). And the Fitch rating agency increased its projection of how much the Russian economy will decline this year to 8.6 percent (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/77772).

            New surveys showed that Russians are running out of savings if they had any at all (finanz.ru/novosti/lichnyye-finansy/zapasy-svobodnykh-deneg-u-rossiyan-rukhnuli-do-istoricheskogo-minimuma-1029350445 and romir.ru/studies/obem-svobodnyh-deneg-v-mae-prodoljil-padat-k-proshlomu-godu).

            And Russian economists and other experts are debating not when that country’s economy will recover but how deep the depression will be and how it will hit most Russians (rosbalt.ru/russia/2020/06/30/1851545.html).

            Meanwhile, in other pandemic-related news from Russia today,

·         A poll finds that most Russians believe students should receive diplomas without taking the government’s test unless they are planning to attend higher educational institutions (wciom.ru/index.php?id=236&uid=10353).

·         Because many teachers are older, the pandemic may make it hard to reopen schools in the fall without putting their lives at risk, educational experts say (ura.news/news/1052438718).

·         And activists for the handicapped say that they hope the recent experience most Russians have had with self-isolation will make them more supportive of those whose disabilities leave them “self-isolated” permanently (rosbalt.ru/piter/2020/06/30/1851533.html).