Paul Goble
Staunton,
January 12 – As many as nine out of ten officers in Russia’s force structures are
“dissatisfied” with the decisions of the president and prime minister,
according to a poll conducted by the country’s Security Council on the eve of
the upcoming presidential elections and despite being marked “for official use
only” published by “Argumenty i fakty” today.
That
figure would not be significantly lowered, the Moscow weekly reported, even if
the government were to boost the pay and benefits of these officers as some
have proposed, and this pattern, the publication suggested, justifies asking
the question whether “the siloviki are ready for an ‘orange’ revolution” in
Russia (www.argumenti.ru/politics/n322/149104).
This
survey, “Argumenty i fakty” continued, was conducted in almost all branches of
the Russian force structures, and the publication suggested that there was
little good news for the regime in any of them, although the findings clearly
do not necessarily mean that the Kremlin could not on these structures in the
event of serious social and political unrest.
The
weekly reported that employees of the newly formed “police,” despite having had
their pay boosted, don’t like the new name.
It cited the report as saying that “a general lowering of the moral
basis for service” had been noted and that “no one of the officers queried
support the new name.” Instead, they say “it is shameful to serve in the
police.”
Moreover,
the report noted that the process of re-testing employees of the former militia
was being used by “leading cadres to settle accounts with their subordinates”
and that much of the intelligence capacity of the Interior Ministry had been
lost following this change given “the departure of experienced specialists.”
Officers
surveyed and the SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence arm, said they were “concerned”
by the reduction in the status of their service “and the constant reduction in
the number of operations carried out.”
Some officers said that “highly placed officials in private conversation
say that our leadership is not interested in our work.”
Officers
at the FSB, the successor to the KGB from which Prime Minister Vladimir Putin
and many of his associates sprang, were equally upset. According to “Argumenty i
fakty,” the survey found that “senior officers” are upset by “the economic
involvement of certain leaders” in what are at least nominally “private
commercial structures.”
As far
as officers in the Russian armed services are concerned, the poll found that “the
overwhelming majority of officers, despite an increase in their pay, are upset
by the situation with respect to the distribution of housing” and also by “the
lack of thought and consistency in the carrying out of reforms” in the armed
services which they say have “weakened” the military.
The news
weekly concluded its report by saying that “it is still unknown whether the
[Russian] president and prime minister had yet become acquainted with this
sensational document,” one that “Argumenty i fakty” implied should be the cause
of serious concern for the regime if the protest movement grows.
If
indeed the commanders of the Russian force structures are as unhappy with the
regime as this report suggests, then that is a reasonable implication. But
there are at least two reasons why such a reading may be overstated.
On the
one hand, the complaints of the officers are not yet about general policies but
rather about the Kremlin’s decisions directly concerning them. Consequently, even if the officers are upset
with those, most of them are probably prepared to follow orders even if push
comes to shove in clashes between the regime and the Russian population.
And on
the other, the unhappiness the officers exhibit may reflect nothing more than a
corporate attempt to extract more resources or a freer hand from the regime in
the run-up to the presidential election, given that Putin is clearly counting
on overwhelming support from those in uniform at the time of the vote.
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