Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 21 – Daghestani
are frightened that the transfer of additional troops into their republic from
Chechnya and other parts of the North Caucasus Federal District will not end the
violence they now face but instead exacerbate tensions to the point that they
may face a full-scale war in the near future.
In a post on the Kavpolit.com
portal, Makhachkala journalist Akhmednabi Akhmednabiyev says that such worries
have grown in recent days following the announcement of Chechen officials that
the troops that had been maintaining roadblocks there will be sent to Daghestan
where new roadblocks will be set up (kavpolit.com/zavtra-budet-vojna/).
Moreover, there
are reports in the republic media that an extra 600 to 700 uniformed personnel
from Russian internal troops and military units are to be sent to Daghestan as
well, although local officials say that they have not yet received written confirmation
of those Russian plans.
But residents of
Daghestan have no doubts, Akhmednabiyev says, “do not believe the assurances of
the local authorities and are certain that the situation in the region as a
result of the redisposition of additional forces will become still worse.” They
believe, he continues, that only the “naïve” would say that roadblocks will
improve matters.
Chechen leader
Ramzan Kadyrov insisted on having the roadblocks in his republic removed
because they made outside investors less willing to put money into projects
there, and it is “sad that Makhachkala is not concerned about its image” in the
same way, people in Makhachkala say.
Daghestani
lawyer Gazimagomed Khiriyev points that that “the leadership of Daghestan will
not control such force structure personnel” and that the latter will act badly,
“kidnapping, torturing and killing citizens” without any reaction from republic
officials. Instead, the latter will
blame Moscow but do nothing.
Another
republic lawyer, Ziyavdin Uvaysov, suggests that the influx of troops will
cause particular problems for Muslims, “especially those who follow all the
provisions of the religion” and thus stand apart in ways that make them targets
for troops “coming from other regions and not knowing the traditions of
Daghestan” and hence inclined to treat them as “enemies.”
Denga
Khalidov, a local political analyst, agrees, saying that with force alone will “only
make the situation worse.” Moscow needs
a new and well-thought-out policy, one that focuses on the struggle with “corruption,
clan arrangements and the unprofessionalism of the republic authorities.”
It
is particularly important, he adds, that “the federal information resources
stop making Daghestanis into monsters.” In short, what is needed is “good sense
rather than fists,” but it appears that “’the hawks’ are winning in Moscow now
and that they want to provoke a war in the region.”
But
another local political scientist, Magomed Magomedov, says that he understands
Moscow’s concerns. “Daghestan is a strategically important region bordering a
number of foreign countries. “The ‘Arab spring,’ tensions around Iran, the situation
in Georgia, Azerbaijan, make it necessary to react adequately and therefore
increase the presence of forces in Daghestan,” adding that “we should not
forget either about the Winter Olympics in Sochi.”
Daghestanis
are acting on their concerns, the Kavpolit.com journalist says. Those who can
afford to do so are buying houses in Western Europe, Arab countries or even
Russia, and those without such means are building housing in rural parts of the
republic and planning to move there in the near future.
There
are already a large number of Russian military personnel in Daghestan. Republic
Interior Ministry Abdurashid Magomedov said last week that there are about
20,000 under his ministry alone. In addition there are 10,000 troops in three Russian
Internal Troops units, 1500 FSB personnel, as well as 25,000 army troops for a
total of “about 57,000” under arms.
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