Paul
Goble
. Staunton, December 11 – Unlike the
five countries of Central Asia proper, China as a major power “is able to
ignore” the wishes of others regarding water, using far more of the flow of the
Ili and Black Irtysh than Kazakhstan and consequently harming the economy of
the latter, according to a new analysis of the struggle over water in the
region.
In an article posted on
Geopolitika.lt, Igor Ivanov, a political scientist from Kazakhstan, says that
Beijing’s approach reflects three facts: most of the flow of these two rivers
is on its territory, Kazakhstan has been less than efficient in its use of
water, and China feels it is forced to do so in order to compete with the United
States (www.geopolitika.lt/?artc=5736).
But however that
may be, Ivanov continues, “it is perfectly clear that the water levels in the
Ili and Black Irtysh will fall and that in turn will exert a negative influence
on relations” between Astana and Beijing just as the struggle over water among
the Central Asian countries has sparked political and even military conflicts
among them.
While China can “permit itself to
ignore the interests of its neighbors,” the Kazakhstan scholar says, the
water-short countries of the region itself, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and to a
lesser extent Turkmenistan, are forced to contend with the consequences of the
policies of the water-surplus ones, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Along with the collapse of the
Soviet Union came the collapse of the system of distributing water among the
new countries of Central Asia. As a result, there have been many disputes among
these states, disputes that have depended to a large degree on agricultural
efficiency and regional stability, Ivanov says.
“With the development of national
economies,” he continues, “water use has only increased, and that cannot fail
to be reflected in the context potential of the region, because water shortages
to a great extent limit the possibilities for the economic development of the countries
of Central Asia.”
Besides
the obvious geographic differences among these states – rivers rise in some
places and flow to others – “the chief problem of the use of water resources”
by Central Asian countries involves “domestic management, the effectiveness of
which leaves much to be desired.”Moreover, “the inability of the countries of the region to develop an infrastructure for irrigation and provision of water to population centers contributes to the growth of inter-stte tensions because it is always simpler to blame one’s neighbor than to put things in one’s own house in order.”
On the one hand, Ivanov argues, these countries have everything they need to address the problem: specialists, experience and “an understanding of the need to improve irrigation channels.” But on the other, cooperation among the countries has not happened because there is no consensus on how water, now very much viewed as a commodity or weapon, should be priced or shared.
Agricultural outcomes in the region “to a large extent depend” on water levels and sharing. Unfortunately, Ivanov points out, the efforts of some of the states in the region to advance themselves at the expense of others has “interfered with constructive dialogue” and prevented all from reaching an agreement.
“Because they control the sources of rivers that flow across borders, these countries try to use them to their maximum potential by promoting the development of hydro-electric power,” Ivanov says. That requires the construction of dams and reservoirs, but “water in reservoirs as a rule is built up in the summer and actively used in the cooler times of the year,” exactly the reverse of what is true in agriculture.
And as a result of hydro projects like the planned Rogunsky hydro station in Tajikistan, downstream states like Uzbekistan may see agricultural yields fall and the needs of the population for fresh water unmet and sanitation suffer with the result that there is a chance for epidemics.
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