Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 26 – In an address
to the Lennart Meri Conference in Tallinn yesterday, Igor Smeshko pointed to
one of the most dangerous asymmetries of the situation in Ukraine: Vladimir
Putin, he said, cannot occupy Ukraine and subdue a partisan war, but the
Kremlin leader can “provoke a global conflict.”
The former head of the SBU and an
advisor to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, says this is the reason that the
conflict must be of concern to all of Europe and the West more generally (gordonua.com/news/war/Smeshko-Okkupirovat-Ukrainu-i-vyigrat-partizanskuyu-voynu-s-ney-nevozmozhno-no-vpolne-realno-sprovocirovat-konflikt-globalnogo-masshtaba-77653.html).
“The armed conflict in Ukraine is
not simply a local contest between Ukraine and Russia but a clash between two
civilizations, the Euro-Atlantic and the so-called ‘Russian world,’” Smeshko
said. Were Ukraine to lose, this would be “a threat not only for the
post-Soviet space, including the Baltic countries but for all of Europe.”
What is at stake, he argued, is
whether Russia will be able to “stop the processes of European integration,”
acquire a strong voice in European affairs, and set itself up as a global
counterweight to the United States.
Asked why Vladimir Putin decided to
engage in this direct confrontation of the West, Smeshko said that Moscow was
shocked by the two Maidan protests in Ukraine in 2004 and 2014. “Those protests
showed,” he said, “that a developed civil society already exists in Ukraine and
that the ideas of democracy are spreading ever closer to Russian borders.”
“The conversion of Ukraine into a flourishing and strong
democratic country would be a death sentence for the existing authoritarian
regime in Russia and even represent a danger for its disintegration,” the
Ukrainian presidential advisor said. Consequently, Putin felt he had to
suppress Ukraine in order to protect his personal power.
A
second reason Putin has moved in Ukraine, Smeshko says, is that the West has
not pursued a sufficiently well-developed security strategy. Instead, “the
leadership of the US has been concentrated not on the development of
Euro-Atlantic civilization but on the problems of ‘global peace,’ and this
could have played a role.”
Putin
will pursue his plans to restore a post-Soviet empire “just as far as he is
permitted to do so,” the former intelligence agency head said, adding that his
listeners should remember what the ancient Romans said: “”Strength restrains;
weakness provokes.”” That is true “not
only regarding Ukraine,” he argued.
The
current conflict may go on for a long time, given the size of the countries
involved, but Smeshko suggested that it will not be solved by military means
alone. Ukrainians will continue to fight
and consequently, it will be “impossible” for Moscow “to occupy Ukraine and win
a partisan war” there.
Smeshko
said that in addition to the fortitude and bravery of ordinary Ukrainians,
Western sanctions on Russia are “working.” Moscow cannot now “repeat the
Crimean scenario in the east of Ukraine,” and it faces ever more problems at
home. The question now is how long will Russians believe they see on television
over what they don’t see in their refrigerators?
The West must
remain united regarding sanctions because any break in them will be exploited
by Moscow and seen by the Kremlin as an indication that it can win through,
especially given the financial help it is providing to “ultra-right and
ultra-left” groups in the West who are giving it support.
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