Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 22 – Rostislav Ishchenko,
a commentator for Russia Today who gained notoriety for arguing that Moscow
should “preventively occupy” the Baltic countries, says that Russia today “is
in a state of war with the United States and that each of its citizens is on the
front lines regardless of whether he is fighting with arms in his or her hands.”
In a speech to a May 17 conference
on “The Ukrainian Crisis and Global Politics” organized by the Russian
Institute for Strategic Studies (RISI) and in an interview given to Prague’s “Parlimentni
Listy” portal yesterday, Ishchenko presents these and other notions which
because of his closeness to the Kremlin deserve attention.
(For his speech to the RISI meeting
in St. Petersburg, see riafan.ru/278739-rossiyanam-pora-ponyat-chto-oni-uzhe-na-voyne-ekspert/
as discussed by Kseniya Kirillova in nr2.com.ua/blogs/Ksenija_Kirillova/Kremlevskiy-analitik-priznal-chto-lidery-LNR-rossiyskie-marionetki-97299.html.For his interview, see parlamentnilisty.cz/arena/rozhovory/Ukrajinsky-politolog-vazne-mluvi-o-veseni-oligarchu-Valka-pry-zaplavi-celou-zemi-a-pricina-je-v-USA-375962 and in Russian topwar.ru/75365-intervyu-rostislava-ischenko-cheshskomu-izdaniyu.html.)
In his speech in St. Petersburg,
Ishchenko, who is also president of the Moscow Center for Systems Analysis and
Prediciton, said that it was already long past time to speak about the
existence of a state of war, about why it had come about, and about how Russia
must prosecute it in order to ensure its national survival.
According to Ishchenko, “the war was
inevitable” because the US needed to expand its markets and could do so only by
turning Ukraine against Russia. Only
Russia could resist the US, he says, because of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal, one “approximately
equivalent” to that of the US, even though Russia’s economy is much smaller.
Indeed, he continued, “GDP and other
economic indicators do not play as important a role” as many imagine. “The barbarians destroyed the Roman Empire
even though their GDPs were microscopic” in comparison with Rome’s. That must
be kept in mind, he said, now when “a war for survival, for determining who
will live in the brave new world,” is taking place.
In this situation, he argued, it is
important to understand that “we are on the frontlines. We have a common enemy
and we have a common victory. Each of us is fighting for his or her future. It
is not important what weapons we are employing, guns, computers, or pieces of
paper. We are fighting for our lives” and for “the survival of our people and
of ourselves.”
“Unfortunately,” Ishchenko said, “the
eney is a very serious one. This is the largest economy in the world. One
cannot defeat it today or tomorrow however much we would like. Yes, we will
take losses, in the Donbas and in other places, not just in Ukraine.” Instead,
Russia is facing as its zone of operations “all of Eastern Europe.”
In his Prague interview, Ishchenko
provides context for these extremely militaristic and aggressive views. He argues that Putin’s “greatest service” to
Russia has been that he has restored the country’s power step by step rather
than by radical measures, so gradually that only now can Russians “see the
gigantic extend of the work he has carried out.”
The war in Ukraine is a result of a
general overreaching by the United States, a trend that reflects the “dizzy
with success” feelings many American officials had after the collapse of the
USSR and their sense that the US could do anything. Now, thanks to Putin’s
rebuilding of Russia, they are learning that they have underrated the power of
those arrayed against them.
“Putin has acted correctly,”
Ishchenko says. “Now his time has come and he can calmly offer the US any
compromise. Washington has gone too far. Compromise for it is defeat and loss
of face.” Because that is the case, the US will increase tensions in what will
prove a failed effort to reverse the situation.
As far as Ukraine is concerned,
Ishchenko argues that “the civil war [there] will not only continue” in the
Donbas “but spread throughout all of Ukraine.” And he adds that those parts of
Ukraine, like those parts of other former Soviet states, will ultimately rejoin
Russia in one form or another.
“There won’t be such small
states around Russia,” he suggests. “Most likely they will become part of
Russia [because] that is what the people populating these regions are seeking.
If there won’t be such a possibility, then they will form under a Russian
protectorate a confederal or federal union (or even two or three of these).”
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