Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 19 – Vladimir Putin
is acting in Syria as he has in Ukraine on the basis of his conviction that no
matter what Russia does, Barack Obama will not respond militarily and that as a
result, Moscow has every incentive to raise the stakes in order to force
negotiations and gain even more concessions from the West, according to
Konstantin Borovoy.
Arguing that “a war between the US
and Russia has begun” but that Putin believes he can win it without a direct
military confrontation with the US, the head of the Western Choice Party says
that the Kremlin leader has concluded “there is now no president in the US but instead
a Nobel Peace Prize laureate” (newsader.com/mention/voyna-mezhdu-ssha-i-rossiey-nachalas/).
According to
Borovoy, Putin has sent troops into Syria just as he has in Ukraine “not for the
conduct of war but for its declaration, as a provocation and showing of the
flag. Putin needs a casus belli but
not a war” as such. And he believes that will work on the basis of his
conclusion that the US is weak, something Russian intelligence agencies and
lobbyists assure him is true.
The latest indication of what Putin
is successfully trying to achieve, the Russian commentator continues, are the
talks between the defense ministers of the US and Russia, a “pathetic” effort by
the US to avoid having to acknowledge that Russia has entered the Syrian
conflict against the US and the West.
“To conclude ‘agreements’ at the level
of defense ministers with someone who does not observe internationally signed
and ratified agreements shows naivete,” he says, because Putin will violate
this “at the first opportunity” and then blame the US for the violations. And
he will sacrifice Russian lives to that end as he has in the past.
“Putin’s real goal is not war but
the creation of such pre-war tension that he US will be forced to enter into
broadscale negotiations. The current [US] president will do everything possible
in this situation not to begin military actions” and thus “will agree to talks
in any format” and will be ready “in advance” to make concessions to Putin.
Putin’s demands in this situation
are obvious, Borovoy says. They are “Crimea is ours, Syria is ours, Iran is
ours, end all sanctions, provide financial assistance to Russia and respect the
interests of Russia in the world.” And the Kremlin leader wants to be able to
make those at a meeting with Obama and other world leaders.
In this situation, the West doesn’t
have a large number of options, the Russian commentator says. It can face a
long period of Russian provocations and apparent pullbacks, but it will not do
anything but lose slowly because Putin believes he can act with impunity and so
will continue to do so.
That will be a black day for the
West, but on the other hand, Borovoy says, it will “justify” Obama’s receipt of
the Nobel Peace Prize.
Meanwhile, Putin will force Russians
to tighten their belts, but he will succeed in convincing them that their
problems have not been caused by him but by “the military provocateur Obama”
and thus they will not only accept the situation but support Putin in his
further aggression.
In reality, he continues, Obama has
only “a single way out – supplying arms to Ukraine, and not just defensive ones
but those that will allow Ukraine to attack. Russia’s armed forces in fact are
not prepared for a real military conflict.” At present, however, Putin is
certain that Obama won’t do that.
There remains “only one question:
what in fact ought the American president to do in this situation?” Borovoy
suggests two steps: “giving a military response to Putin in Syria and Ukraine,
immediately, rapidly and very effectively,” and “taking up the problems of the c
special services having freed them from the influence of the network of Putin’s
agents.”
Unfortunately, the Russian
commentator implies, there does not seem to be much chance of either.
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