Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 24 – Each of
Vladimir Putin’s actions in Europe looks to some observers as offensive moves,
Dmitry Oreshkin says; but if one puts them in context and considers how
marginal some of them are, it is increasingly clear that he is playing defense
there, having “suffered defeat after defeat.”
According to the Russian
commentator, two things are now clear in Moscow. First, Russian elites are
feeling “a sense of defeat on the European front” and thus are searching for “any
allies or even the appearance of allies to concentrate their essentially
defensive efforts” (apostrophe.com.ua/article/world/2016-02-23/rossiyu-v-evrope-izoliruyut-a-putin-terpit-porajenie-za-porajeniem/3393).
“Hungary is hardly the most powerful
member of the European Union, the party of Marin Le Pen is hardly the most
influential political force in France, and Giulietto Chiesa is hardly the most
respected journalist and politician in Italy,” Oreshkin writes. But Moscow now “doesn’t
have any other” allies.
And second, there is a sense that
even reaching out to these people is “not a counterattack but a purely
defensive” move. It is clearly “an effort to disrupt the unity of the European
Union from within, to find some weak link.”
But the best Putin can hope for is to “slow the formation” of an
anti-Moscow “political front.” He is not in a position to reverse it.
“This is a defensive strategy which
to a significant degree is asymmetrical,” Oreshkin continues. Western
governments understand that Moscow can always find useful idiots to push its
line in second-tier media outlets or second-tier states and thus dismiss them
as unimportant. Putin consequently is taking these measures primarily for
domestic consumption.
If you are a reader of only the
Russian press, he continues, “you see [as a result of such campaigns] that the
Dutch are unhappy with Ukraine, that Urban supports and approves of Russia …
and that the entire European Union is collapsing because it cannot withstand
the influx of migrants.”
The message this sends to Russians
is this: “’we are having difficult times, but we are going from victory to
victory” abroad.
In reality, Oreshkin says, “the
Putin vertical is going from defeat to defeat.” It is losing its ties abroad
and respect there as well. And “the country is becoming ever more predictable”
as Russia is “isolated to the maximum extent possible.” Russians can see this
because the Kremlin’s propaganda line has shifted.
A year ago, they were told that
Western sanctions were in fact making Russia stronger and that expanded demand
for Russian products would allow the country to stand up. But now “all have forgotten about that.” That will have consequences because Russians “are
not idiots” in the way that the powers that be think they are.
Instead, what is growing is a
cognitive dissonance in their minds between what they are told on government
television and what they see in their daily lives. So far, this trend is only beginning but it
will grow ever stronger, Oreshkin says.
As for the West, governments there
now know “with whom they are dealing.” They have to continue to talk because
Russia is “a major political animal” regardless of who it is acting. Most understand they need to stand up to
Moscow, but some think as they did in Soviet times that “the Russian bear will
love them if they give it a lump of sugar.
The overall trend is clear: “There
will not be a total ignoring of Moscow, but the dominating trend will be its
isolation.”
Because the EU operates on the basis
of consensus, any one country can block the will of the majority, “but this is a
game for marginal. The key players like Germany are hardly likely to go along.”
And the Kremlin understands that it can’t buy countries like Germany, Great
Britain of France “for Russian money.”
“In the best case, it is possible to
buy Marin Le Pen, because she costs nine million euros, which Moscow has given
her party as a loan.”
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