Paul
Goble
Staunton, October 14 – “Anti-Americanism,”
Vladimir Pastukhov says, “is the Marxism of ‘the Russian spring’ and the
religion of the ‘post-modern’ post-communist rebirth. It is the guide to any
action and at the same time a universal indulgence” and explanation of all
problems Moscow faces.
It is in short, the Russian historian at
the London School of Economics says, “the new cult of Putin’s Russia,” reflecting
the fact that “Russia no longer loves America but as before cannot live without
her. If the Americans did not exist, it would be necessary to invent them” (slon.ru/posts/74808).
This cult is “not simply a continuation of
an old trend,” he suggests, but rather “a transition to some completely new
quality,” containing as it does “something neurotic” and in some cases as “poorly
concealed hysteria.” And like any other hysteria, it has “earthly and rational”
roots in three things: folly, rage and jitters.
The Kremlin wants to replay “the Soviet
spectacle ‘We will bury you,’” Pastukhov says, and it is prepared to engage in “a
fantastic bluff” to force the West to back down and “’leave us in peace, don’t
interfere with our affairs, and yield to us as a protectorate the territory of
the former Empire.’”
These demands seem to the Kremlin “so
simple, clear and in its understanding just that the failure of the West to
agree is literally driving the leadership of Russia mad.” But Russia is divided between those who are
prepared to become like North Korea and those who want to be like South Korea,
and both groups suffer from Russia’s diminished status in the world.
Putin doesn’t want to give either the
chance to succeed, but the Kremlin by its approach may end by being like North
Korea and not the South.
“One of the most surprising aspects of
Russian political culture,” Pastukhov says, “is the ability of the elites to
push themselves into a state of self-hypnosis,” starting by trying to deceive
others and ending by deceiving themselves.
“Anti-Americanism was developed as a political tool, but literally before
our eyes, it was transformed into an end in itself.”
In part, this reflects a revival of “good
old Soviet anti-Americanism,” and in part, it reflects the impact of “‘the Versailles
syndrome’” and imperial nostalgia. And that has led to a fundamental
contradiction within this new mix because the US “at one and the same time is
dying and enslaving others, the only super power and a geopolitical lame duck.”
That combination has been informing
Russian elite thinking for some time, but in the last month, the level of
hysteria has reached unprecedented levels and produced jitteriness among the
elites, something hitherto absent, the historian says. This is because the elites
fear the economic crisis may be a more serious test than they admit and
sanctions more serious in their impact.
In this situation, Pastukhov says, “the
times when the foreign policy of Russia was a continuation of its domestic
policy have passed. Now everything is just the opposite: all the life of Rsusia
is subordinate to the realization of its new global foreign policy goal: to
frighten the West and force it to retreat, lift sanctions, and open the capital
market for the regime.
The Kremlin faces no domestic threats, but
its survival depends on a status quo which in turn depends on the West – “and
above all the US” – and the sanctions regime is maintained or expanded there is
the risk that “Russia will inevitably follow the path of the USSR,” collapse
and disintegrate.
It is thus “no surprise,” Pastukhov says,
that the Kremlin is following the US election campaign so closely given that
the next president will “hold in his hands” the power to affect Russia. But
given that, the Kremlin’s obvious preference for Donald Trump over Hillary
Clinton “seems insane” given that the latter is likely to be more gentle and
predictable than the former.
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