Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 9 -- Initial
reaction in the former Soviet space to the victory of Donald Trump in the US
presidential elections ranges from apocalyptic fears that Washington will sell
them out to Moscow to the belief that US policy with regard to these countries
will remain largely unchanged and that Trump in any case will not be “Putin’s
puppet.”
In the run-up to yesterday’s voting
in the United States, many commentators in the post-Soviet states, especially
in Ukraine and the Baltic countries, expressed their clear preference for
Hillary Clinton, convinced that she would stand up to Moscow on their behalf
more readily and consistently than Trump.
But now that she has lost and Trump
has won, commentators are beginning to talk more specifically about what his
election will mean for them. In many
places, there is a sense that there may be some confusion during the transition
and that Moscow may try to exploit it by acting against them (dsnews.ua/world/esli-zavtra-tramp--09112016110000).
In
most of these countries, analysts are suggesting that they do not believe US
policy will change very much even after that time either because these countries
are not a focus for Trump or because existing American policy will work as well
for his goals as they have for his predecessors (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/292314/).
That
is the predominant view among Belarusians who have expressed a view this
morning, for example; and they at least are encouraged by that such
steady-as-you-go predictions about Washington’s approach (charter97.org/ru/news/2016/11/9/230480/,
charter97.org/ru/news/2016/11/9/230477/
and belaruspartisan.org/politic/361491/).
The
situation is somewhat different in Ukraine with some commentators and
politicians warning that Trump’s election is “a disaster” or “a catastrophe” for
their country because they believe he will make a deal with Putin at their
expense (gordonua.com/publications/goldfarb-chto-teper-vstrecha-trampa-s-putinym-priznanie-anneksii-kryma-otmena-sankciy-razdel-ukrainy-158183.html,
svpressa.ru/world/news/160242/ and nv.ua/opinion/oleschuk/ljubov-trampa-i-putina-chego-stoit-opasatsja-264611.html).
But perhaps the
most thoughtful Ukrainian commentary so far is offered by Vasil Filipchuk, a diplomat
and head of the Kyiv International Center for Prognosis Research, who argues
that Trump’s election need not be a disaster for Ukraine if Ukraine understands
what has happened and reacts in an appropriate way (apostrophe.ua/article/world/america/2016-11-09/ne-kukla-putina-chto-oznachaet-dlya-ukrainyi-pobeda-trampa/8230).
He begins by arguing that “the
results of the US elections yet again confirm we have new geopolitical realities
in which we must life. And woe to those who do not accept them and do not adapt
to the new rules of the game … [or] who say that the main thing for Ukrainians
is to be with the Americans against the Russians and that the boys from Langley
will do everything for us.”
The United States has changed: the
result of the election are “a raised middle finger somewhere from the depths of
the state of Colorado at the old American elite which sought to maintain its
monopoly on power in the most powerful country in the world.” Yesterday, he
says, Americans voted not “’for’” something but rather “’against.’”
Moreover, the election shows that the
US has changed as far as its involvement with the rest of the world. Its people
no longer want it to be the world’s policemen and don’t understand why they
should fight to support some dictators and to oppose others. No one has been
able to explain to them why they should sacrifice in this way.
“I do not think,” Filipchuk says, “that
the new leader of the White House will make any rapid and radical changes in
foreign policy” because “the system of decision making there is so complex” but
clearly over time, the US will work to change the architecture of international
relations in order to give Washington “more room for maneuver.”
Ukrainians need to remember that “for
the new president, domestic issues are the main thing,” he says. “Ukraine and
even Russia for him are not to be found in the top ten or even top 20 of his
priorities.” Given America’s domestic problems, the Congress won’t oppose his
shift of attention to affairs at home.
Filipchuk continues by suggesting
that “if anyone thinks that Trump will become a puppet in the hands of Putin,
he needs to stop reading Soviet newspapers.” Trump is clearly “not so stupid”
and he will defend his and America’s interests against those of others,
including those of the Russian leader.
And that points up “the main task
for Ukraine” now: to immediately try to become for Trump a positive and not a
negative issue, which we are now as a result of the short-sighted advice,
actions and positions of some in the leadership of the country.”
He says that he very much doubts
Hillary Clinton was all that grateful for the expressions of Ukrainian support.
But the Trump entourage won’t forget them. Nonetheless, “the situation is not
hopeless” because for both American candidates, Ukraine was a marginal factor
in the voting.
Clearly, the diplomat continues, “the
Ukrainian leadership must immediately make several serious changes and
establish communications with the office of the new president. For this, there
is every possibility; what is needed is only wisdom and political will.”
And that in turn points to the main
thing right now, Filipchuk says. “We can be partners with the US regardless of
who is president there only if we will be an attractive country … [Kyiv] has a
month or two to carry out real reforms.” And Ukrainian officials need to
remember this: “Everything is not in the hands of the US or Russia.”
“A very great deal is in our own,”
he says. “Therefore, there is nothing to wait for: it is time to get to work.
There is almost no time left for that.”
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