Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 24 – Beginning in
November, the Eurasian States in Transition (EAST) Center in Warsaw says,
Moscow media sharply increased the number of stories in which treat Belarus negatively,
question its independence, and suggest that it is moving along the Ukrainian
path.
The center draws its conclusions on the
basis of a fourth-month-long study (available at
east-center.org/media-analysis/)
that has been summarized by two of its authors, sociologist Veronika Laputko
and political scientist Andrey Yeliseyev, in comments for Polish Radio (radyjo.net/4/28/Artykul/285930 and belaruspartisan.org/politic/365574/).
According to Yeliseyev, there are
two basic trends involved. On the one hand, “the central Russian TV channels
for the first time have begun to put out materials which say that ‘Belarus is
going along the Ukrainian path.’” Indeed, this has become “a cliché” in the
Russian media and is worrisome.
That is because, he continues, such
language means that the Russian powers that be want their population to believe
that “’in Belarus, with the support of the West, fascism and russophobia have raised
their heads and soon the overthrow of the government may occur,’” a message
that could be used to justify Russian intervention.
And on the other hand, Yeliseyev
says, “’analytic’” materials on portals like Regnum.ru have not only increased
in number – from five to seven in August to 16 last month – but they have become
more virulently “chauvinist” in tone.
What we are seeing, the Warsaw-based
analyst says,, is “an obvious anti-Belarusian campaign. The material are
appearing not episodically but one after another.” And increasingly, they “cast
doubt on Belarusian sovereignty and the integrity of Belarus” and on the independent
status of the Belarusian language, Belarusian culture, and the Belarusian
nation.
Such “theses” are no new, Laputko
says. But “for the first time, Russian propagandists have begun to declare that
Belarus intends to seize lands of neighboring countries and take part in ‘the future
division’ of Lithuania, Latvia and Ukraine.” That feeds into another Moscow
meme that the EU will disintegrate and the borders of its former members will
be changed.
Official Minsk has responded sharply
to many of these articles, and now some Russian media outlets are complaining
that Moscow has not responded to these complaints and taken more direct
measures, yet another indication of the deteriorating situation between the two
countries
The EAST analysts say they are
especially concerned about this rise of anti-Belarusian articles in the Russian
media because polls show that “Belarusian citizens trust Russian media more
than they do Belarusian government and non-governmental media” and thus are
likely to be swayed by it in ways inimical to the future of Belarus.
Yeliseyev says that one of the reasons
for the worsening of Moscow’s treatment of Belarus is the deterioration of
economic relations between Moscow and Minsk. Indeed, he says, it cannot be
excluded that Russian officials have given an unpublished directive to media
outlets to attack Belarus.
The appearance of the EAST report
has done nothing to slow the increase in anti-Belarusian articles and
commentaries in Moscow in the last few days. Since the report was issued
earlier in the week, Leonid Reshetnikov, the head of the influential Russian
Institute for Strategic and International Studies, took things to a new low.
He declared that “the Belarusian
language was created by a decree of the Orgburo of the Central Committee of the
All-Russian Communist Party (of Bolsheviks) in 1926” and that Belarus is “an
historic part of Russia, a small country which cannot live independently” (belpartisan.org/politic/365437/).
The Belarusian foreign ministry
officially protested this but to no avail.
And according to Minsk political analyst Arseniy Sivitsky, Russia is “intentionally
preparing its citizens for a possible conflict with Belarus” possibly one
involving military action by the Russian side (belpartisan.org/politic/365494/).
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