Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 18 – The
Kremlin-controlled media and often echoing it Western outlets paint a picture
of Russia as a burgeoning military power, with its forces totally prepared to carry
out any order the Putin regime gives them. But three stories this week suggest
not only that this picture is incomplete but that it may be dangerously false.
The first of these is perhaps the
most serious. As all political
philosophers from Machiavelli on have pointed out, one of the first tasks of a
ruler is to ensure that his forces are well-paid not only so that they will not
be tempted to revolt against him but also so they will be ready to do his
bidding in the future.
Over the past several years, there
has been a drumbeat of stories about military bases where the power was shut
off because Moscow hadn’t paid the bill and about soldiers not getting adequate
food or even being paid on time because the center hadn’t managed to perform
that most basic of functions.
But now Moscow, at a time of budget
stringency, has taken a step that could lead to real problems. It is demanding
that officers and soldiers who served in “hot spots” like Abkhazia in the 1990s
return the supplemental combat pay they received for their service (mk.ru/social/2017/01/16/rossiyskikh-voennykh-obyazali-vernut-milliony-za-sluzhbu-v-goryachey-tochke.html).
The
roughly 3,000 military personnel involved are “in shock” about this decision, “Moskovsky
komsomolets” reports. They’ve long ago spent the money they were paid, believe
that they earned it, and have filed an appeal with the Russian Supreme Court to
try to force the Russian government to reverse its order.
Obviously,
the soldiers long ago spent the money they were given and don’t have it to give
back to the state. But their plight, serious as it is, pales to that of a
government which makes promises to its soldiers and then reneges, something
other military personnel who may be asked to do other things will certainly be
taking note of.
The
second of these stories is potentially just as serious. In order to boost its
military presence in the Black Sea, Moscow has forced commanders there to
accept and commission ships that have not gone through the normal trials that
could have been expected to identify and lead to the correction of problems (svpressa.ru/war21/article/164455/).
That doesn’t mean that
these ships are not capable of performing most of their tasks, but it does mean
that they are far more likely to suffer breakdowns and be able to fulfill any
orders they are given. And it means that these untested vessels should not be
counted as part of some new “super” Russian fleet as Moscow and some in the
West routinely do.
And the
third of these stories, a more humorous one, is noteworthy primarily because it
comes on the heels of what the Kremlin-controlled media has been celebrating as
a great breakthrough for its fleet and for the prospects of the Northern Sea
Route, the successful transit over that route of ships at the end of December.
After
making what everyone calls “an historic Arctic voyage,” Russia’s icebreakers
have gotten stuck in the ice in the East Siberian Sea. They are being supplied
by helicopter, and officials say that the situation “is not critical” (siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0847-icebreakers-make-historic-arctic-voyage-then-get-stuck-in-frozen-sea-on-return-journey/).
But
this event too like the others is a reminder that what looks strong in the Russian
case as a result of Potemkin Village-style operations may not be as powerful as
the Kremlin needs them to be to achieve its ends or as many, as a result of its
propaganda effort, in fact believe them to be.
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