Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 21 – Vladimir Putin’s
installation of technocrats as governors in place of politicians is likely to
have an impact on the country’s systemic parties, leading to their
de-politicization as well by means of the replacement of the aging politicians
who head them now by younger pragmatic functionaries, according to Tatyana
Stanovaya.
The Carnegie Moscow Center expert
says that these parties are already integrated into Putin’s power vertical and
so in the near future, they too are likely to be subject to the same shifts
that are already occurring among the governors. Indeed, she says, the behavior
of the parties in the Duma already points in that direction (carnegie.ru/commentary/?fa=68067).
The Duma today already functions
like “one large United Russia fraction,” with the KPRF being the left wing, the
LDPR being the national patriotic one, and Just Russia being a reflection of the
past. Such an arrangement thus
corresponds in the parliament to the idea of the irreplaceability of Putin
himself.
What it means for the 2018 election,
Stanovaya says is that there will appear four and possibly even five “Putins” –
“the main Putin,” “the Putin communist,” “the Putin nationalist,” and “the
Putin socialist.” And for good measure and to appeal to one sliver of the
electorate, “a market oriented Putin.”
If that is how “political” life is
going to be arranged, the scholar says, it doesn’t really matter whether one
has a real politician at the head of any party. Indeed, a younger and more
pragmatic functionary will do just fine – and perhaps even better when they
attend meetings in the Presidential Administration.
If the system has enough resources,
it may be able to last for years, being a simulacrum of real politics without
any political competition. The only real
problem is that the citizenry will see no reason to take part in this charade
and there may emerge an insurgency from outside seeking the changes this
unpolitical arrangement would seem to preclude.
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