Paul
Goble
Staunton, March 25 – At present,
Russians who reach age 27 without having served in the military are no longer
subject to the draft; and those who do successfully avoid such service pay few
penalties in civilian life. But the combination of the decline of the size of
this age cohort and Vladimir Putin’s military agenda, both those things may
change.
Leaders of the Duma defense
committee say that before the end of this year, they will consider legislation
to make Russian subject to the draft until the age of 30 and to deny government
employment to those who do not serve either because of deferments or other
exemptions (gazeta.ru/army/2017/03/23/10590953.shtml#page3).
Such changes would simultaneous hurt
the Russian economy by removing from economic and reproductive activity more
young people and infuriate many who believe that they are serving their country
in other capacities. Indeed, these changes would likely cost the Russian
military some of the nearly universal respect it now has.
Demography almost certainly is the
primary driver behind these plans: the size of the draft-age cohort is falling
and is slated to fall further in the years ahead. But perhaps almost as
important is Putin’s military program, one that requires a larger military than
a more pacific policy would have.
What remains to be seen is whether
this proposal, coming just before the scheduled presidential elections, will
spark dissent from those who think the military casts too large a shadow on the
lives of Russians already and who will thus argue for a less aggressive stance
in international affairs.
No comments:
Post a Comment