Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 15 – Just as Moscow
opened the way to its annexation of Crimea by undermining Ukrainian positions
in the Donbass, so too, if Vladimir Putin decides to incorporate parts of the
Donbass into the Russian Federation, he would need to launch a major program to
destabilize Ukraine by launching attacks elsewhere, according to Kyiv experts.
Such Russian actions elsewhere,
these defense analysts say, would not only create problems for Kyiv in
maintaining order but also have the effect of forcing the Ukrainian military to
pull out of its currently fortified positions opposite the Russian occupiers
and aggressors to defend the country elsewhere.
These conclusions, which are contained in
a report prepared for the Liga.net portal (liga.net/projects/russian_agression/), are summarized by
Kseniya Kirillova on the Krymr.com site today (ru.krymr.com/a/28488694.html). And the US-based Russian analyst includes the
commentaries of others about the Liga analytic report’s findings.
The report begins, Kirillova says, by
observing that over the last three years, the military capacity of the
Ukrainian military has improved dramatically and that “in the case of a
non-nuclear conflict,” Kyiv’s forces on their own “would be capable of
inflicting enormous damage on Russian ones.”
Both Russian and Ukrainian analysts share
that view. Igor Girkin (Strelkov), head of the “Novorossiya” movement, for
example, has said (youtube.com/watch?v=RQjhqD0fHeo&t=4s)
that “it is already impossible to defeat the Ukrainian army in an open battle.”
Leonid Polyakov, former Ukrainian defense minister, has said the same (ru.krymr.com/a/28477681.html).
Despite this, Kirillova continues, “a
number of experts assert that Ukrainian diplomats have begun to receive signals
from Moscow about preparations for a radical scenario involving a full-scale
intervention of Russian forces in the Donbass and the strengthening of the
Russian army on the line” opposite Ukrainian forces.
The Liga report specifies that officials
near Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko say that “Moscow is considering the option
of the official seizure of Ukrainian territories in the Donbass,” something
that will require the Russians to increase their efforts at destabilizing other
parts of Ukraine.
These sources maintain, the report
continues, that “now, the Russians are actively involved in Mykolaiv and
Kharkiv” and introducing people there to raise tensions in order to show that “the
‘Novorossiya’ project is still alive.”
Aleksandr Turchinkov, secretary of the Ukrainian security council,
suggests that the Kremlin “will try to destabilize” Kyiv itself.
Girkin-Strelkov, Kirillova points out, has
acknowledged that “the integration of the Donbass will be impossible without a
full-scale attack on other regions of Ukraine,” something that will force the
Ukrainian military to shift away from its currently well-prepared posts in order
to respond to attacks elsewhere. That is the only way for Russia to win out.
Ukrainian experts, however, cast doubt on
Moscow’s ability to do this anytime soon. As quoted by the Liga report, they
suggest that the Russian forces won’t be ready for a full-scale invasion of
Ukraine until 2020, some three years from now – although they admit that
smaller attacks are possible before that time.
The report also addresses the threats that
the Russian military now poses to Belarus and the Baltic countries. Many officials and analysts have suggested
that Moscow may not withdraw its forces after the West-2017 exercises in
Belarus and thus effectively occupy that country in a “hybrid” manner.
And it says threats to the Baltic
countries are “no less serious,” although experts there argue Russia is far
less likely to invade them now than it might have been three years ago given
that, in the words of one, “NATO partners understand our situation and are
ready to back us” (ru.krymr.com/a/28327287.html).
Russian destabilization efforts, of course, are another matter.
No comments:
Post a Comment