Paul
Goble
Staunton, October 15 – Many Russian
commentators are suggesting that Donald Trump’s refusal to impose Congress-mandated
sanctions on Russian leaders is an act of “sabotage” – see, for example,
Aleksandr Nemets’ essay on Kasparov.ru about recent developments in Washington
(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=59E25FA8BE820).
Despite mounting anger in the US
Congress and the American population, Nemets says, “Trump does not want – or can’t,
as a result of secret ties with Moscow! – to change his previous model of
behavior” of pushing for better relations with Moscow and thus “continues to
sabotage anti-Russian sanctions.”
But another Russian commentator,
Anna Nemtsova, suggests more may be going on, that Moscow even now is working
to frighten Washington into lifting sanctions by having Russians pull more than
one trillion US dollars out of the West or by playing on Western fears that if
sanctions continue, someone even worse than Putin could come to power in Moscow
(thedailybeast.com/moscows-plan-to-beat-sanctions-russia-first).
In a new article
entitled “Moscow’s Plan to Beat Sanctions? ‘Russia First!’” Nemtsova says that
both conservative and liberal factions in the Kremlin elite believe that the
new sanctions have “cornered” Putin and are forcing him to take radical actions
to try to save the situation by convincing Washington it must change course.
She writes: “some Russian VIPs still wake up hoping to make a
deal with the Americans before the Russian presidential election campaign of
2018 is underway—to convince Washington that if the pressure of sanctions grows
worse, a much scarier “enfant terrible” than Vladimir Putin will come
to power in Russia.”
These
people, Nemtsov continues, call themselves “the Jumpstart Party” (ryvok in Russian) and, according to one
of its leader’s, Yury Krupnov, who says he has Putin’s support, are demanding that
Russian elites “either bring all your offshore money back home and invest in
developing the economy or you will have to go.”
The
group estimates that Russian companies now have approximately one trillion US
dollars in banks and brokerage accounts abroad.
Russian businessmen could be threatened with jail or death if they did
not repatriate their funds, Yury Gromyko of Moscow’s Shiffers Institute says.
Such
a sudden and massive withdrawal of funds, of course, would have a significant
impact on Western markets and might lead some in Washington to reconsider their
positions on sanctions. Indeed, it is not impossible that President Trump is
among those who might expect that to happen and who might delay sanctions to
prevent that from taking place
But
in Russia itself, Nemtsova says, few expect this call for repatriation to work
anytime soon. Repressive moves against Russian businesses just now would, as
Moscow economist Yevgeny Gontmakher points out, end any chance that foreigners
would ever invest in “such an isolationist Russia.”
But
the Jumpstart supporters have a fallback position, one that might do even more
to change some minds in the West.
According to Krupnov, “Washington should consider a deal with Russia, a
joint struggle against global challenges.” If it doesn’t, a new leader will
emerge in the Russian capital.
He
won’t be a reformer, the Ryvok advocate says, “but a completely anti-Western,
revenge-thirsty general, who would cause harm to the USA.” For Moscow’s strategy as outlined by Nemtsova
to work, it would not even be necessary for the Russian side to take either
action. Simply threatening the one and raising the prospect of the other might
be enough.
Indeed,
it is not impossible that the comments by Ryvok leaders to Nemtsova and others
are part and parcel of that game. Moscow
may calculate that it need make only a few moves to lend credibility to these
threats to change minds in the West and thus it may believe that Trump’s
foot-dragging will play into its hands.
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