Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 23 – Few governments
play up anniversaries and especially “round” ones than does Moscow, and that
makes it all the more curious that today, it did remarkably little to mark the
Day of the Defender of the Fatherland on what is the centenary of the creation
of the Red Army.
But despite the fact that in recent
years, Vladimir Putin has transformed Russia into what military observer
Aleksandr Golts calls “the country of victorious militarism” (ej.ru/?a=note&id=32168), the
Kremlin had three compelling reasons for doing so, all connected with the election
campaign and Russia’s current military problems.
First, as Golts himself points out,
the recent deaths of Russian mercenaries at the hands of American forces in
Syria is something that the Putin regime has been working overtime to play down,
lest it spark either questions about the competence of his regime or demands
for a more forceful response than the Kremlin can or at least wants to give.
Nonetheless, he says, “it remains
true: for the first time since the Korean war, Russia and the United States
have begun to fight.” It doesn’t matter much that “the Americans destroyed not
Russian soldiers … but only armed citizens of the Russian Federation.” And that
points to a still more dangerous development.
The Kremlin’s “successes” in its
military actions “are making war more probable.” On the one hand, “its
operations in Ukraine and Syria do not have the slightest connection to the country’s
security. They are directed exclusively at strengthening ‘the pride’ of the Kremlin.
And Russians can see that.
And on the other, they make war more
likely, not only because they have created a domestic constituency within the
military-industrial complex for more spending on military affairs; but they have
increased the chances for the kind of accident that happened in Syria February
7-8 and that could happen again. Russians can see that as well.
Second, while Putin’s regime almost
in every case traces its institutions back to Soviet ones rather than to
earlier tsarist cases – Russia has had defenders far before the Red Army was
created on February 23, 1918 – it also has problems with it selection of such
early Soviet models, perhaps nowhere more than in this case.
Talking about that centenary raises
questions about just what the Soviet government was about, Georgy Oltarzhevsky
writes for Profile (profile.ru/culture/item/124989-strategicheskij-yubilej-s-nedomolvkami), thus calling
into question both Putin’s notion of a common historical stream for all
Russians and the possibility of the peaceful future they want.
And third, in addition to the ebbing
of the “Crimea is Ours” enthusiasm among Russians that boosted Putin earlier,
there are growing indications that Russians are increasingly skeptical about
what the Kremlin leader is doing in Syria in particular. Polls suggest Russians
are less than pleased by events there, and the comments of some are
devastating.
Radio Svoboda’s Siberian Realities
program interviewed people on the street in Vladivostok, Irkutsk,
Blagoveshchensk and Krasnoyarsk about the war in Syria. What is found was
skepticism about Putin’s explanation of both Russian involvement and Russian victories
there (sibreal.org/a/29058628.html).
One resident summed up what many
Russians appear to be thinking: What Russia is doing in Syria, he said, “is not
a duty; it is simply a use of force.” Given
such attitudes, a big celebration of the centenary of the Red Army would likely
be counterproductive as far as the Kremlin is concerned.
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