Paul
Goble
Staunton, March 13 – No one doubts
that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected with a massive majority or that he
enjoys widespread support, Yevgeny Gontmakher says. Nor do many think that his
authoritarianism will do anything but continue and even strengthen. But that is “an illusion” because “Russia is
pregnant with radical changes.”
What is unclear, the Moscow commentator
says in a comment on the Ekho Moskvy
portal, is which changes will emerge – “reforms which will return the country to a European path or a
catastrophe threatening not only Russia itself but the entire international
community” (echo.msk.ru/blog/gontmaher/2164104-echo/).
In
Gontmakher’s telling, “Russia society is based on the imitation of the
principles of democracy, a market economy and human rights,” something that
worked as long as oil revenues were high.
But “in reality, all of these things function around one real
functioning institution – the irreplaceable power and its chief person,
Vladimir Putin.”
“In order to
conceal this fact, the most powerful propaganda machine works, which controls
all the main means of mass information and marginalizes any real political
opposition,” the commentator says. But
at the same time, the economic model based on high oil prices is increasingly
fragile and the country’s prospects uncertain.
And that means that “the still high
rating of trust in Vladimir Putin is now combined with the concerns of citizens
regarding their own social future and a consensus of experts that Russia needs
reforms.”
Three major approaches to resolving
Russia’s problems are on the table, Gontmakher continues. According to the
first, nothing needs to be changed in the political system and that economic growth
can take off by providing cheap loans to businesses and only “cosmetic” adjustments.
According
to the second, which is often associated with former finance minister Aleksey
Kudrin, the first will only lead to an outburst of inflation and a worsening of
the investment climate. What is needed,
Kudrin and those who think like him is an opening of the economy and society to
“a Big Europe.”
Such
a change would be impossible with real democracy and thus “the replacement of
the political regime in Russia,” Gontmakher says. And in addition, it would require a shift in
Russian foreign policy from its current aggressiveness to a search for
partnership with the West, “based on common fundamental principles.”
And
according to the third approach, Russia can succeed by pursuing “a special,
non-European type of civilization constructed on the basis of so-called
traditional values,” the chief feature of which is the centrality of the state
as a sacred thing that must not be criticized by anyone.
That
is what Putin has partially put in place already, but such an approach will
lead to an economic crisis and even worse relations with the West.
In
principle, Putin could choose any one of these three ideas, although there is
little indication that he wants to select the second of them. Instead,
Gontmakher suggests, the Kremlin leader will try to combine cosmetic changes
with the notion of a special path. But
despite that, the pressures to move toward a Big Europe approach are growing.
“The
problem of Russia,” he continues, “is not only that it simply doesn’t have
enough money for both an arms race and for social programs.” Instead, it is
this: “innovative development including in the military sphere in the 21st
century is secured only by free individuals living in a democratic society.”
“The
conception of ‘a state civilization’ which Vladimir Putin likes is not
compatible with this at all.” That means
the next six years are going to be difficult for him and for Russia because his
“desire to change something without changing anything significant sooner or
later will push the situation in the country toward an open crisis.”
The
only question, Gontmakher says, is what price society will have to pay for
this.
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