Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 30 – The Ingush
opposition has been very consistent in declaring that its most important issues
are the freeing of political prisoners, the reversal of the border agreement
with Chechnya that cost Ingushetia 26,000 hectares of land, and the restoration
of direct elections for the head of the republic.
But incoming republic head
Makhmud-Ali Kalimatov in an interview with the Russian news agency TASS says
his priorities are health care, agriculture and ecology, issues that are
totally acceptable from Moscow’s point of view affect many Ingush but that do
not indicate that he is ready to meet the Ingush opposition part way (tass.ru/politika/6612012).
Ingush opposition leaders continue
to say that they hope for dialogue with the new man (e.g., zamanho.com/?p=9955), but Kalimatov’s
first programmatic statement suggests that is going to be more difficult to
achieve than many had expected. And that
in turn has three major consequences, none of them good.
First, it suggests that Kalimatov’s
idea of beginning anew with a clean slate means accepting the border deal with
Chechnya, likely what Moscow wants and certainly what Chechen leader Ramzan
Kadyrov does, but something that will spark new protests in the coming weeks
and months.
Second, it makes it less likely that
the new man will move quickly to release the political prisoners in Ingushetia
lest those who have been behind bars move to organize protests on that issue
and others. That could slow the revival of protests but it also could mean that
new ones will be led by more radical people than before.
And third, it indicates that
Kalimatov’s honeymoon with the Ingush population will likely be shorter than
many had expected. Neither Magas nor Moscow has the funds to make a big
difference in the areas he has identified as priorities, and so the departure
of Yunus-Bek Yevkurov is unlikely to be the turning point some had thought it
would be.
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