Coronavirus Pandemic Undercutting Chief Kremlin Meme, Fear of Post-Putin Future, Kirillova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, March 31 – For the last decade and more, Vladimir Putin and his regime have insisted that without him, Russia would land in chaos, as the basis for maintaining popular support for the Kremlin. That had been quite successful, but it has been called into question by recent developments and especially the coronavirus pandemic, Kseniya Kirillova says.

            Surveys of Russian fears over the past several years have shown, the US-based Russian journalist says, that “the main fear of people is shifting from a fear of change and revolution to a fear of illness, arbitrary behavior of the authorities and a possible world war” (forumfreerussia.org/articles/opinions/2020-03-31/stolknovenie-strahov/).

            That is, she continues, Russians are now more afraid of “the consequences of Putin’s rule” than they are of “the mythical consequences of his departure” that the state-controlled media has done so much to promote. And even the cult of the Soviet past has been affected by this shift.

            But it was thrown into high relief by Putin’s decision to delay the vote on his constitutional amendments that will allow him to remain in power for life.  As commentator Viktor Shenderovich notes, it is “impossible” to think that Putin did this out of a concern for the welfare of the people (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5E7C4A24DC693).

            Instead, Shenderovich and Kirillova say, the Kremlin leader did so because his own polls show he might not have gotten the participation rate required for approval and because he recognizes that forcing people to vote at a time when such public action carries with it the risk of illness and death would only further undermine his standing with the population.

            A recent Levada Center poll found, Kirillova says, that only a third of Russians were certain they would take part in the referendum, far fewer than the 50 percent needed for it to be valid, and that Russians are equally divided in whether to back a key part of the amendments, the one extending Putin’s right to run for office again and again (bbc.com/russian/news-52052108).

            That too suggests Russians are more concerned about what the Putin regime is doing to them now than they are about some future possibility of his departure. For polling data confirming that observation, the journalist suggests, see the survey results reported at rbc.ru/politics/21/02/2020/5e4e8a1a9a7947510ec14532.

            This shift among Russians from fears about an illusory post-Putin future to fears about what is happening to them now has been intensified by the coronavirus pandemic; and it is now affecting the attitudes Russians have about the Soviet past. Yes, they are more inclined to have a positive view, but for most, it is Soviet social services not military prowess that is the reason.

            And as people have shifted their views, the state’s primary vehicle for forming them is losing its former dominance, Kirillova points out. Another Levada Center poll shows that the share of Russians who trust state television has fallen from 79 percent to a bare majority of 52 percent (levada.ru/2020/02/27/istochniki-novostej-i-doverie-smi/).

            In this situation and feeling the change in public attitudes, the Kremlin is placing its bets on repressive methods … but practice ever more shows that the population is ceasing to believe illusory constructions [about a post-Putin future] and its fears are shifting from the realm of myths to unpleasant reality.” Using the siloviki against them will only intensify that.