Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 19 –The world is only
at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, Vyacheslav Nikonov says, but “one
thing is already obvious: the pandemic is not going to make the world better and
therefore it is necessary to prepare for things to get worse because it is the
future that the rest of our lives will be spent in.
No one can predict the future with
certainty, the Moscow State University dean and Duma deputy says; but “many
changes have already taken place or are taking place now.” As Anna Akhmatova
put it, “the future casts its shadow on us long before we enter it” (ng.ru/ideas/2020-05-18/7_7863_geopolitics.html).
To help everyone think about what is
ahead, Nikonov offers a checklist of 25 geopolitical changes he sees ahead:
1.
“The
pandemic will not destroy the old world or even the agenda of the old world,
but it will act as a catalyst of those processes which were already taking place,
accelerate them, and make them more prominent.”
2.
“The
world system will become more fragmented.”
3.
De-globalization
will continue with more “protectionism, sanctions, currency manipulations,
restrictions on migration, and support for domestic producers.”
4.
Super-national
structures will become less important” as they have shown their “complete
incapacity to act in a critical situation.
5.
The
reduction in the relative super-power status of the United States will
continue.
6.
The
European Union will become increasingly fractious. “Shengen already isn’t
functioning and many borders are closed.”
7.
The
West will decline relative to the rest of the world in large part because their
leaders have taken “ineffective measures” to protect against economic shocks.
8.
“The
century of Asia will arrive earlier than many had thought if indeed it has not
already arrived.”
9.
“There
is no chance that the US will go quietly from its heights. American faith in
its own exceptionalism has not gone anywhere.”
10.
“The
main conflict of the current period is already obvious – the clash between America
and China.”
11.
“China
will not be able to avoid a confrontation if the Americans impose it on it.”
And they will pursue their own goals, not necessarily global hegemony but their
own expansive goals.
12.
“Trans-Atlantic
solidarity has come under question. It is not guaranteed that the US in its
struggle to preserve its hegemony will be able to count on the support of all
its allies.”
13.
“The
pandemic will relatively weaken the position of Russia.” It likely faces a serious
economic recession. There will be pressure to move in the European direction
rather than in the current Asiatic one.
14.
“Russian-American
relations will only deteriorate.”
15.
“Arms
control, which at one time was the basis of strategic stability, will pass into
history.”
16.
The
risks of biological and bacteriological war will become more serious.
17.
Ukraine’s
economy will weaken but the costs to others of supporting it will decline. EU
countries may do less, but the US may do more, especially if Joe Biden wins the
presidency in November.
18.
“Russian-Chinese
relations are more likely to strengthen. The American strategy of dual
containment, of Russia and China, won’t disappear” but “America itself will not
support dual containment” for long.
19.
“Increased
activity by the US will be felt in all regions which represent for it primary
strategic interests,” including beyond doubt, the Middle East.
20.
Many
will be exploring why South Asia and Africa suffered less from this pandemic
than the global North, a sharp contrast from earlier pandemics.
21.
There
will be “a strengthening of states and statehood.”
22.
“Diplomacy
has already gone online and in part will remain there.”
23.
International
law as currently understood will become of historical interest.
24.
The
post-truth world will continue to expand, with information wars only
intensifying.”
25.
“The
pandemic will spark discussions about the system of human values,” but it may
take different directions than in the past when most talked about democracy and
human rights.
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