Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 24 – In his Victory
Day speech, Vladimir Putin claimed victory not only over Hitler’s Germany,
something that really happened, but also over the coronavirus pandemic,
something that has not happened. But he clearly hopes that Russians will accept
his rosy view at least through July 1 when the referendum occurs on his
constitutional amendments.
Many are skeptical about Putin’s second
claim and his expectations that Russians will accept his words as true. Anatoly
Baranov says that at best, “Putin ‘has defeated’ for a minimum of a week,” but
quite likely not for longer than that given the continuing growth in the number
of infections and deaths in Russia (forum-msk.org/material/news/16534051.html).
The parade in Moscow was subdued
with far fewer and much lower status leaders in attendance than Putin had hoped
for, a smaller crowd because of fears about the virus he says has been defeated,
and the fact that many Muscovites, on the advice of their own officials,
continue to wear masks to protect themselves (dailystorm.ru/obschestvo/s-maskoy-napereves-kak-v-moskve-vstretili-parad-pobedy-24-iyunya).
At least the Moscow parade took
place. In all but 25 other cases in the Russian Federation (plus three in
Russian-occupied Crimea), parades either were never scheduled, were cancelled
or were organized to occur without any spectators (znak.com/2020-06-24/parady_pobedy_iz_za_covid_19_otmeneny_ili_proydut_bez_zriteley_v_35_regionah_rossii and kavkazr.com/a/30688521.html).
The government’s own figures about
new cases and deaths from the coronavirus over the last 24 hours belied Putin’s
words too. There were 7176 new cases of infection, pushing the cumulative total
over 600,000 to 606,881; and the new of deaths was 154, raising that total to
8513 (t.me/COVID2019_official/874).
Many people are convinced that these
figures in fact continue to understate Russia’s losses. In addition to
scholarly studies, groups like Patient Monitor in Ingushetia are conducting online
surveys asking people to report the details of cases they know about (fortanga.org/2020/06/opros-skolko-lyudej-na-samom-dele-umerlo-ot-koronavirusa/).
As the pandemic continued, there
were both new spikes and new moves to open up the economy. Outbreaks were
reported in Khantty-Mansiisk courts (znak.com/2020-06-24/v_yugre_srazu_neskolko_sudey_zarazilis_koronavirusom_odnogo_podklyuchili_k_apparatu_ivl
and in hospitals in the Altay Kray (tass.ru/sibir-news/8804613).
Moscow, however, continues to open
up (https://meduza.io/feature/2020/06/24/vo-vsem-vinovat-sobyanin); and Putin is counting on the fact that most
foreign journalists and diplomats are located there rather than anywhere else
in Russia to ensure that what happens in Moscow will shape their image and that
of their readers and viewers as to what is happening in Russia.
Economic
news was almost uniformly bad despite the holiday. The IMF increased its projection
of the likely decline of Russia’s GDP for the year to minus-6.6 percent (vedomosti.ru/economics/articles/2020/06/24/833285-mvf).
Russian economists said that a second wave may lead to devaluation and restrict
recovery (krizis-kopilka.ru/archives/77574
and
But perhaps the most disturbing
conclusion was offered by Moscow economist Igor Nikolayev who says that the
latest data show that with the lifting of the quarantine in Russian cities, the
decline of the Russian economy has not eased but accelerated (echo.msk.ru/blog/nikolaev_i/2664791-echo/).
The pandemic is beginning to have
some political consequences. Moscow May Sergey Sobyanin is said to be in
trouble because of the unpopularity of his restrictions (meduza.io/feature/2020/06/24/vo-vsem-vinovat-sobyanin).
Officials are saying that referendum
voting next week will be safe and appear to be taking some measures that could
lead to falsifications
(znak.com/2020-06-24/letuchaya_snyala_agitacionnyy_rolik_s_pamfilovoy_i_popovoy_o_bezopasnosti_golosovaniya
and znak.com/2020-06-24/ekspert_v_moskve_na_onlayn_golosovanie_po_konstitucii_zapisalos_anomalnoe_chislo_grazhdan).
Meanwhile,
in other pandemic-related news from Russia today,
·
The authorities have made it “practically
impossible” for anyone to visit the Solovki monastery, arguing that they have
had to do so to prevent the spread of the coronavirus (thebarentsobserver.com/en/travel/2020/06/solovki-closed-visitors).
·
Scholars
are warning that any vaccine that is developed may be dangerous for elderly
people who will be advised or prohibited from getting it and thus will remain
at risk of infection (newizv.ru/news/science/24-06-2020/uchenye-vaktsina-ot-kovida-mozhet-byt-opasna-dlya-pozhilyh-lyudey).
·
A
new survey shows that isolation measures the Russian government imposed to try
to slow the spread of the coronavirus did not lead to a spark in pregnancies but
rather to decisions by potential parents that now is not the time to bring new children
into the world (facebook.com/ppryanikov/posts/3288170221228014).
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