Paul Goble
Staunton, July 10 – The new generation of North Caucasians, who grew up within Islam and view it as a key component of their identity, are radicalizing along Islamic lines because they do not like what Moscow is doing in their region and view Islam rather than a particular nation as the primary vehicle for protest, Denis Sokolov says.
There are some exceptions to that pattern, the Russian specialist on the region says, Chechnya being the most obvious; but in general, what is happening in Dagestan now is likely to happen across the region and threaten Moscow’s ability to maintain control (svoboda.org/a/dagestan-kak-vtoraya-chechnya-/33028477.html).
In fact, Sokolov says, in Dagestan, “we are seeing sings that radical separatist protest could ultimately topple the machine that Putin has built, signs that are already visible in all regions and in all industries.” In the North Caucasus, this radicalization is based on Islam; elsewhere, it is based on other things.
In Dagestan and its neighbors, he continues, “Islam is becoming a ideology of separatism and a radical one at that,” a set of attitudes based on political and social protest that provides a framework for protest against Moscow and its rule, especially in places like multi-national Dagestan where there is no obvious “national” basis for such radicalization.
Putin and his policies are in large measure to blame for three reasons. First, they are focusing on Ukraine to the exclusion of other threats. Second, their repressive measures are hitting young people first and infuriating them. And third, the Kremlin believes that playing up Islamism is useful to it because many in the West see it as a greater threat than Putin is.
Such people are wrong, Sokolov says; because Putin is far more dangerous to the world than Islamists in Dagestan. But the fact that they believe otherwise means that the future of the North Caucasus is likely to be more complicated and more violent than would otherwise be the case.
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