Patrushev Denounces Western Moves on World’s Oceans, Europe’s Internal Waterways, and the Montreux Convention

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Nov. 1 – Nikolay Patrushev, former secretary of the Russian Security Council who now heads the Naval Collegium, has denounced Western moves on the world’s oceans and Europe’s internal waterways and regarding the Montreux Convention governing the Turkish straits as anti-Russian and says Moscow will respond (fedpress.ru/news/77/policy/3346147).
    On the one hand, his comments fall within the remit of his new position; but on the other, they are a sign that he continues to play a key role in the formation of Moscow’s foreign policy as Russia’s leading hawk and in many ways may have increased that role since his widely supposed “demotion” to the Naval Collegium.
    Three of Patrushev’s comments are particularly noteworthy. First, he is especially concerned with the use of rivers by the West having overseen the conduct of the Oceans 2024 exercise which despite its name focused on the use of the internal waterways of the Russian Federation.
    A major reason for that focus may be that Russia can put pressure on other countries regarding the military use of transborder rivers like the Danube in particular without having to wait until Moscow can overcome its problems with its blue water navy.
    Second, Patrushev is focused above all on the balance of power in the Black Sea. While that may be little more than a reflection of the fact that he made these remarks at a meeting devoted to that sea, his words suggest that Moscow will now seek to build up its presence there even before it expands elsewhere, to challenge both Ukraine and its Western supporters.
    Such a focus could presage a much more aggressive response to Ukraine’s victories over the Russian navy there than anyone has seen in recent months. If so, naval activity even more than land force movements may define Moscow’s approach in the coming months.
    And third, his reference to the Montreux Convention which governs the use of the Turkish straits speaks to a Russian obsession going back more than a century, one based on fears that the West will advance against Russia via the straits into the Black Sea, something the convention, in force since 1936, makes far less possible.
    Patrushev’s suggestions that the West wants to change Montreux, a kind of code word for the development of a canal that bypasses the Turkish straits, makes it likely that Moscow will step up its pressure on Turkey not to agree to any change in the convention’s limits.