Some in Both Russia and China Fear Falling Too Far Under the Influence of the Other, Zuyenko Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Nov. 5 – The rapprochement of Russia and China over the last two years is especially remarkable, Ivan Zuyenko says, because some in each country fear that there is a serious risk that they might fall too far under the influence of their opposite numbers, a fear that limits just how far this coming together will go.
    The senior researcher at the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) says that Russian fears in this regard are well-known but that it is important to keep in mind that “symmetrical” fears exist in China, although he says neither should be overemphasized (profile.ru/columnist/simmetrichnye-strahi-1615652/).
    According to Zuyenko, “perhaps no other relationships with a partner country are criticized as often in Russia as those with Beijing,” criticism rooted in the “disproportions of the size of the economy and population” between Russia and China and the view that “the only possible outcome is that Russia will become dependent on China.”
    But those Russian concerns, although much noted, are less interesting than the fact that Moscow has failed to notice “similar sentiments” in Beijing about the risk that China will inevitably fall too far under Russian influence and that Chinese interests and China as a whole will suffer as a result.
    Such Chinese concerns exist and must be noted, Zuyenko says; but they shouldn’t be overestimated. They don’t reflect the views of China’s top leadership but rather the willingness of that top leadership to allow “a hundred flowers to bloom” in order to suggest that China is “a free country.”
    China will continue to pursue close ties with Russia because the leaders of the two countries are “like-minded people on the world stage and economically complement one another perfectly,” the MGIMO analyst says. At least for the time being, Beijing critics of ties with Russia should be ignored just as Moscow critics of ties with China are.
    At the same time, however, the appearance of an article like Zuyenko’s suggests that some in Moscow are concerned that what are today marginal voices in Beijing could grow in number and volume and want the Russian leadership to be aware of this danger as it navigates the development of this relationship.