Fertility Rates in Central Asian Countries Declining but All Remain Well Above Replacement Levels

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 11 – Fertility rates in all five Central Asian countries are falling but remain well above replacement levels, a UN study says. As a result and despite significant outmigration, all face problems of coping with growing populations. The country most affected in this way is Tajikistan.

            According to a new UN study, the fertility rate in Kazakhstan is 3.0, that in Kyrgyzstan, 2.9, that in Tajikistan, 3.3, that in Turkmenistan, 2.6, and that in Uzbekistan, 2.7. All are thus above the 2.2 children per woman per lifetime that keeps the population at its current level (asiaplustj.info/ru/news/tajikistan/society/20250711/visokaya-rozhdaemost-kak-vizov-naselenie-tadzhikistana-prodolzhaet-rasti-nesmotrya-na-visokii-uroven-migratsii-oon).

            Tajikistan, which has the highest fertility rate in the region and one of the highest in the world, faces particular challenges, the UN study continues. More than 30 percent of its population are children younger than 15, something that requires the construction of more schools and housing now and the provision of more jobs in the future.

            Even with significant outmigration – and Tajikistan has one of the highest rates of such departures – the population continues to surge, putting pressure on the government to come up with such investments or face the risk of a social explosion triggered not by Islam but by population pressures alone.