Paul Goble
Staunton, July 16 – Suggestions that Armenia might be open to having a US company help regulate transit between Azerbaijan proper and the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchevan or even that the US might play an even larger role and run that corridor through Armenian territory for a century are beginning to spark discussions among Russian analysts.
The Kavkaz-Uzel portal has surveyed several of them, and its findings are instructive. While no Russian analyst would be happy about either of these developments, all of them appear to believe they would be far less immediately apocalyptic than many Western observers might assume (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/398623).
Such attitudes may mean that Moscow won’t actively oppose -- or has concluded it lacks the leverage to prevent -- one or the other of these arrangements and instead plan for ways to live with them, an attitude that could make it possible that one or the other could become a major step toward the achievement of a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Sergey Boyko, a Russian analyst at London’s Adam Smith Research Center, says that many had assumed in the past had assumed that Russia would play a role in any arrangements concerning transit in the Zengezur corridor but that worsening relations between Moscow and the regional governments mean that they are looking elsewhere and to the US in particular.
“The achievement of an agreement on the corridor without involving the Russian Federation,” he continues, “marks an essential weakening of its position in the region and testified to its gradual squeezing out from the South Caucasus.” But keeping Russia out of any deal “significantly increases the chances” that a deal can be made.
Aleksandr Karavayev of Moscow’s Caspian Institute of Strategic Research (KISI), suggests that “the Zengezur corridor is for Russia a peripheral subject.” Moscow certainly won’t welcome any American participation, but it recognizes that even an agreement on that point won’t lead to any actions on the ground anytime soon.
Too many rail and highway links will have to be built for the US to play a role that will affect Russia’s desire to have a north-south route through Syunik-Zengezur, he continues. Building them will take money and time and likely involve Russian contractors by means of which Russia can ensure that its interests are respected.
Aleksey Gunya, a senior scholar at the Moscow Institute of Geography, suggests that Armenia will proceed cautiously about involving the Americans because any surrender of control over the corridor will represent a further retreat of Armenia “after the loss of Karabakh” and thus will meet with resistance in Armenia proper.
At the same time, Gunya “does not exclude” that Moscow may seek to use is “levers” in the region, “including its military base in Gyumri,” its trade relations with Armenia, and its influence in the Armenian diaspora. If Yerevan goes ahead anyway, Russia may change the rules governing Armenian travel to and work in the Russian Federation.
And finally, a Russian political observer speaking on conditions of anonymity says that even if the Americans are involved in an east-west corridor in Zengezur, they won’t be in a position to block Russia’s involvement in a north-south corridor with Iran, something far more important to Moscow.
In his view, “the Russian military base in Gyumri is of very small size even relative to the armed forces of Azerbaijan. That is especially the case if Turkey interferes in the situation. Moscow won’t like Americans in the corridor, but it may not be able to stop Armenia agreeing to it because any reduction in tensions there is “a plus” for the current leadership.
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