Russian Majority will Support War in Ukraine as Long as They Don’t have to Fight, Shelin Says, and There is a Minority Quite Willing to Do So

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 21 – A recent VTsIOM poll shows that a new “Russian contract” between Putin and the population has emerged, Sergey Shelin says. Russians overwhelmingly will continue to support the war in Ukraine as long as the Kremlin doesn’t ask them to take part in the fighting.

            This reflects what is a growing “social divide” between “a complacent majority that supports the war from a distance and a highly belligerent minority willing to fight it, the Russian commentator says (themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/21/most-russians-dont-want-to-be-soldiers-that-doesnt-mean-they-oppose-the-war-a89714).

            Unless the Russian military were to suffer significantly more losses, a development that might force Putin into seeking to recruit many who don’t want to fight, Shelin continues, it is likely that Moscow will be able to field an army in Ukraine at its current size not just this year but into next as well.

            In any case, he says, “there are no signs that the regime is panicking about recruitment” and there are even indications that if feels confident it can continue to fill the gaps left by irretrievable losses in Ukraine to tht point that it is now cutting recruitment bonuses in some places (thebell.io/snizhenie-vyplat-sovershenno-tochno-soglasovano-s-kremlem-pochemu-rossiyskie-regiony-urezayut-vyplaty-kontraktnikam).