Paul Goble
Staunton, Aug. 27 – Moscow experts
have reacted with outrage to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s interview
with the Al-Arabiya television channel, declaring that it contains “not
one good word” about Russia, presages a further deterioration of relations
between Baku and Moscow and could even lead to a military clash.
(For the text of Aliyev’s 7000-word interview,
see president.az/ru/articles/view/69968. For a survey of initial reaction
by Russian experts and political figures on the Caucasus and the Middle East,
see vpoanalytics.com/sobytiya-i-kommentarii/ilkham-aliev-o-rossii-ni-odnogo-dobrogo-slova/.)
In his interview, the Azerbaijani
president blamed Moscow not only for the recent cooling of relations following the
downing of an Azerbaijani plane and the deaths of Azerbaijani activists in the
Russian Federation but also for his country’s problems dating back to the 1920s
when the Soviet Red Army occupied Azerbaijan and made it part of the Soviet
state.
In words that recall those of the
Azerbaijani democratic opposition far more than those of his father, Haidar
Aliyev, Ilham Aliyev blamed Moscow for suppressing Azerbaijani democracy and
redrawing the borders to separate Azerbaijan proper from its exclave
Nakhichevan, thereby creating a problem for Baku ever since.
Almost equally horrific for Russian
commentators were Aliyev’s warm words for US President Donald Trump, including
the Azerbaijani president’s belief that Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, would
have remained in office after 2020 had “the deep state” not stolen the election,
and is a model for how other countries should deal with Azerbaijan.
Such language is not only obviously
music to the ears of the American leader but represents the sharpest turn yet
by Azerbaijan away from Russia toward the West, something that Moscow
commentators are alarmed by but have not yet figured out a way to reverse given
Baku’s support for Ukraine and its growing ties with the West in general and
the US in particular.
In the course of his interview,
Aliyev made two other points to which Russian writers have paid less attention
to but that may prove equally important in the future. He said that he had good
relations with the current Iranian president, an ethnic Azerbaijani, and would
deal with him rather than with Iran’s religious hierarchy given that the Tehran
leader was elected by the people.
And in addition, he reaffirmed
Azerbaijan’s close ties with Turkey, arguing that those relations were creating
a new power center to the south of Russia, one that would include all the
Turkic countries of the region and put it rather than anyone else at the center
of discussions about the future of that region and the Middle East.
For all of these reason, Aliyev’s Al-Arabiya
interview represents a major turning point in relations not only between
Azerbaijan and Moscow but among the other non-Russian countries which emerged when
the Soviet system collapsed and between them and the Russian Federation as
well.
As such, it deserves far more
attention than the shooting down of the aircraft or the killing of activists
which many have focused far more on that this programmatic outline of where Aliyev
sees his country heading.