Paul Goble
Staunton, July 27 –Moscow is strengthening its military base in Armenia both by adding advanced weapons and more personnel in order to counter Yerevan’s drift to the West and expects to win Armenia back into the Russian fold, according to Aleksandr Perendzhiyev, a political analyst at Moscow’s Russian Economics University.
He argues that if Moscow does not take such steps, there is the possibility that “a battle between the US and China will take place on the territory of Armenia,” although Perendzhiyev insists that Armenia’s drift away from Russia can be reversed once Yerevan recognizes the dangers ahead (svpressa.ru/politic/article/474472/).
And consequently, despite the fears of some in Moscow, “we have still Armenia although [the country’s leader] Pashinyan at times in his actions reminds one of [former Ukrainian leader] Yanukovich by trying to sit on two stools in order to conduct a so-called multi-vector policy,” Perendzhiyev says.
The Russian analyst says that “the strengthening of the base” is only the most visible part of a much larger Russian effort to ensure that there won’t be NATO bases in Armenia and that “the health forces” in Armenia will be able to work wit Russia so that there couldn’t “won’t be swallowed up by someone.”
One of the encouraging signs that Armenia will soon turn back to Moscow is that Russia’s relations will Azerbaijan have cooled, a trend that is usually accompanied by a warming of relations between Moscow and Yerevan. And another is that Baku is working with the US to dominate the Zengezur corridor, something that is already being called “the Trump bridge.”
This worries China and puts it at odds with the US in the South Caucasus, Perendzhiyev continues; and Armenia won’t want to be driven into any regional arrangement that puts it at odds not only with Moscow but with China. If it doesn’t avoid that, Armenia will face a difficult future.
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