Paul Goble
Staunton, Sept. 18 – If Russia admits and retains as many immigrants as it currently does for the rest of this century, its population will decline by 44 percent to 81 million people; but if it blocks immigration, then the Russian population will decline by 54 percent to 68 million, according to the calculations of the To Be Precise portal.
The growth or decline of a country’s population depends on three factors: the birthrate, the deathrate reflecting both public health and the aging of the population, and migration as people enter or leave the country, the portal’s Slava Matveyev says (tochno.st/materials/esli-demograficeskaia-situaciia-ne-izmenitsia-k-2100-godu-naselenie-rossii-sokratitsia-do-81-milliona-celovek).
The Putin regime has tried to boost the birthrate so far without much success, thus making the other two factors more significant in terms of outcomes. It has also cut back on public health, something that means deathrates if current trends continue will continue to rise, pressing down population growth more dramatically.
That leaves migration flows as the key factor; and To Be Precise decided to compare expert projections of how large the population of the Russian Federation in its current borders will be if immigration continues or if the government seeks to block new immigrants and even expel those already there.
Unless immigration continues or even expands, predominantly ethnic Russians will suffer far greater declines than the all-country trend than will the predominantly Muslim areas of the North Caucasus where birthrates while falling from what they were earlier are still much higher than in ethnic Russian ones.
Thus, the choice about how many immigrants should be allowed in will affect not only how large the population of the country will be in 2100 but also what the ethnic and religious mix of that population will be. In the increasingly nationalistic atmosphere of Russia today, that will not be welcome news.
No comments:
Post a Comment