Record-Breaking Melting of Svalbard Glaciers Likely to Have Security Implications

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 25 – A group of Norwegian scholars says that the melting of glaciers on the Svalbard archipelago took place at an unprecedented rate in 2024. In just a few months, the archipelago lost at least one percent of its ice cover; and the melting was responsible for 10 percent of the rise of the world oceans during that year.

            More than 50 percent of Svalbard is still covered by ice, the researchers said; but much of that is likely to melt in the coming years and possibly at an accelerating rate (pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2503806122 reported and discussed in detail at thebarentsobserver.com/news/recordbreaking-glacier-melt-on-svalbard/437798).

            The melting of the glaciers on Svalbard will open the possibility that countries like the Russian Federation will try to expand their coal mining operations there, something the 1920 treaty allows but that Moscow has used in recent times to test the resolve of Norway and NATO (jamestown.org/program/moscow-using-svalbard-to-test-natos-readiness-and-resolve/).

            And such expanded economic activity could easily lead to an increased Russian security interest in the archipelago, including even the possibility of a Russian military move against NATO there (jamestown.org/program/moscows-first-move-against-nato-could-take-place-in-norways-svalbard-archipelago/).