Moscow Again Thinking about Diverting Siberian River Water to Central Asia – and Such Talk is Dividing Russians

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 21 – Between 1976 and 1986, a Moscow plan to divert Siberian river water to the growing populations of the Central Asian republics roiled opinion especially in Russian society. Then, the Gorbachev regime killed the project on the basis of economic, ecological and cultural objections.

            But despite that, the idea never really has gone away, and Central Asian scholars and officials have routinely raised the issue, noting that if Moscow doesn’t send water south, their countries will soon send tens of millions of their residents northward into Russia in an uncontrolled wave of migration.

            There has also been some Russian interest given the flooding that has hit areas adjoining these rivers in Siberia; and that has grown into something more because a few Moscow geopoliticians say that Russia must divert water from these rivers in order to build “a Soviet Union 2.0.”

            Nonetheless, until about a month ago, the debate about the diversion of Siberian river water had been relatively quiet, with most Russians assuming that costs and the fact that the project had been rejected earlier and remains so expensive that there is little chance Moscow will agree to it.

            But in early October, a meeting took place in the Siberian Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences about water resources that has caused the debate to become more far heated and involve far more Russian officials and Russian nationalists. That happened after scholars there said they were going to get funds to study the issue.

            For many Russians, this looked like a Moscow concession to Central Asia that they did not want to see extended, and the debate has sharpened (e.g., stoletie.ru/rossiya_i_mir/snova_povorot_rek_725.htm, nakanune.ru/articles/124109/, business-gazeta.ru/article/687836, forbes.ru/society/549884-ucenye-ran-predlozili-izucit-vozmoznost-povorota-sibirskih-rek-v-srednuu-aziu, kedr.media/news/ran-rassmotrit-vozmozhnost-povorota-sibirskih-rek-v-czentralnuyu-aziyu/, regionvoice.ru/yeto-predatelstvo-deputaty-osudil/, apn-spb.ru/opinions/article39414.htm and kedr.media/news/politicheskaya-konyunktura-ekolog-o-planah-perebrasyvat-vodu-iz-obi-v-czentralnuyu-aziyu/).

            Obviously, as long as Putin’s war in Ukraine continues, there is not likely to be much movement toward a project now estimated to cost 110 billion US dollars. But the intensity of debate with supporters and opponents on both sides strongly suggests that this debate is only beginning and is likely to intensify, involving ever more Russians, official and otherwise.