Moscow Pioneered Use of Migration Directed Against Finland and Norway a Decade Ago and May Do So Again, Scandinavian Scholars Warn

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 21 – Moscow pioneered state-organized migration flows against neighboring states far earlier than many now think and in a place, Norway and Finland, that at the time attracted far less attention that its later moves did , according to Jyri Lavikainen and Karen-Anna Eggen.

            The two scholars, at the Finish Institute of International Affairs and the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies respectively, write in The European Journal of International Security what the Kremlin did then, it may do again (cambridge.org/core/journals/european-journal-of-international-security/article/implementing-a-new-tool-russias-strategic-use-of-migrants-towards-norway-and-finland-201516/A6EA1B686C7C3EDA3B4DB6F15F71DB0E and themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/21/russia-wielded-migration-against-europe-earlier-than-you-think-a91202).

            “Since 2020,” they write, “stores about the instrumentalized use of migrants have regularly appeared in the news … However, out research shows that Russia’s first test run with migrants took place years earlier, high above the Arctic Circle” when in 2015-2016, “Russia abruptly relaxed its own border contros and allowed more than 7,000 migrants” to go into Norway and Finland.”

            That this was a political decision rather than the result of migration pressures triggered by wars in the Middle East is clear because “access to the border zone in Murmansk is tightly regulated” and potential migrants couldn’t even reach the border unless Russian officials agreed to allow them to do so, something it had not done in the past.

            A tough response by Finland and Norway led Moscow to back down and to end this flow in a few days, stopping it “s suddenly as it had started.” But it is also clear, the two scholars say, that this Arctic operation “was less about winning clear concessions than about establishing coercive potential: increase the sense that Russia always has another lever it can pull.”

            And they argue that because this threat has not disappeared, “understanding how this tool emerged in the Arctic a decade ago is a first step towards understanding how Russia leverages laws and human beings to serve strategic goals; goals that may change over time as Russia tailors its approaches and evaluates the risk involved.”