Even Traditionally Pro-Russian Kyrgyzstan May Turn Away from Moscow, Dubnov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 1 – Moscow is rapidly losing influence among the countries of the former Soviet space to the point that even those countries like Kyrgyzstan which traditionally have been among the most pro-Russian may turn against Moscow in the future given its increasingly nationalistic course and ability to find support from other outside powers.

            That is the conclusion of Arady Dubnov, a Russian commentator who specializes on Central Asia, and who implies in a new article that the time when that will happen in Bishkek may be sooner than anyone now suspects (novgaz.com/index.php/2-news/4072-аркадий-дубнов,-политолог,-эксперт-по-центральной-азии).

            He notes that in the newly elected parliament, there will not be any ethnic Russians, something that is “completely logical given that the Russian community [in Kyrgyzstan now] does not exceed three percent of the total population.” Moreover, deputies are required to know Kyrgyz, a rarity among even that three percent.

            At present, Dubnov continues, “a significant number of the urban population of Kyrgyzstan, especially among those who are older, knows Russian well.” And for that reason among others, Bishkek has “traditionally been the most, if you like, ‘Russia-centric’ in Central Asia.”

But, he says pointedly in conclusion, that is “for the time being” and not something Moscow can count on as something that will always be the case.