Paul
Goble
Staunton, July 28 – For a
revolutionary situation to occur, Aleksandr Khots says, three conditions must
be met: relations between the authorities and the population must have
deteriorated to the breaking point, popular anger must be exacerbated by
cynical actions of the powers that be, and the people must go into the streets
having lost their fear of the authorities.
All three of these necessary but
obviously not yet sufficient characteristics were true in Moscow yesterday, the
Russian commentator says, adding that the loss of fear among the population
will prove “contagious” and this will in time be a mortal blow to the regime (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5D3DE8C9D1466).
Many observers said that this loss
of fear is “bad news for the city government,” but, Khots suggests, it is so “not
only for it but also for the regime as a whole.” Russians no longer fear
standing up to the police and the police in turn seem incapable of localizing
protests or intimidating more people from joining them.
Moreover, the ongoing radicalization
of “’systemic’ politicians and their alliance with ‘the irreconcilables,’ a
union that may become long-lasting” is also a threat to the stability the
regime promises and seeks. These are major changes from the situation in
2011-2012 when targeted attacks on the opposition put it back in the box.
Now, the actions of the authorities are
adding to anger rather to fear; and that means that when the people have the chance
to go to a meeting that has been approved by the authorities as this Saturday, “there
will be more than 22,500.” That in turn will ensure that at the next unapproved
meetings there will be more as well.
People are so generally angry, Khots
continues, that almost anything can become the cause for protest as the Golunov
case showed. And this anger is not limited
to Moscow but extends to many parts of the country, most prominently in
Yekaterinburg and Arkhangelsk.
At present, there is a kind of floating
balance between an angry society and the capacity of the regime to suppress it,
he says. Almost anything could lead this situation to become unbalanced. Full-blown
repression is unlikely: the regime doesn’t have the resources. But targeted repression no longer works.
The situation in 2019 is very
different than the one in 2012, Khots argues.
“The systemic social crisis, plus the vaunted ‘transit’ of the decrepit leader
is creating a new reality in Russia,” one that may produce a revolt, not pitiless
as many fear but just and even well-thought out. If so, that is the basis for optimism.
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