Only a Revolution from Above Can Save Russia from Crashing into the Scylla of Revolution and the Charybdis of a Post-Revolutionary Dictatorship, Pastukhov Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Nov. 27 – History strongly suggests that a revolution is possible in Russia but also that any such revolution would be followed by a post-revolutionary dictatorship as “a side effect,” Vladimir Pastukhov says, adding that he has “no confidence” Russia has “enough historical time left for a smooth exit from another dictatorship.”
    Consequently, to have any kind of positive future at all, the London-based Russian analyst says, the country “will have to pass between the Scylla of revolution and the Charybdis of a post-revolutionary dictatorship,” something that succeeds only in legends and myths (t.me/v_pastukhov/1310 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/rossiya-mezhdu-sczilloj-revolyuczii-i-haribdoj-diktatury).
    The only chance for Russia to make this passage successfully, Pastukhov continues, would arise in the even of “a revolution from above,” one that might take place if cooperation could be established “between that part of the Putin elite ripe for change and that part of the anti-Putin counter-elite that is ripe for compromise.”
    Such cooperation, “even for a short period, could smooth out the corners of the post-revolutionary dictatorship and make the descent from the current peak of post-communist neo-totalitarianism smoother,” although any such arrangement would still be marked by tragedies, although much smaller ones than any other arrangement.
    Such a scenario is possible but unlikely not least of which because it would represent “essentially a second attempt at Gorbachev’s perestroika, Pastukhov concludes. But “it would be the most desirable and promising in terms of the pace of the transformation of Russian society into something at least remotely resembling a law-based state.”