‘Putin doesn’t want a Truce in Ukraine But Might Agree to One for Three Reasons,’ Shelin Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Dec. 6 – Putin has enough resources to continue his war in Ukraine for a long time and certainly doesn’t want a truce with Kyiv, Sergey Shelin says; “but he might agree to one” because the war is costing more than he expected, his imperialism is increasingly at odds with the nationalism of the Russian people, and the population itself is tired of war.
    But any agreement the Kremlin leader might make about Ukraine would be no more than a breathing space, allowing him time to gather his forces, and likely guaranteeing that he would restart the conflict when he felt he was in a better position to win it as quickly as he expected in 2022 (moscowtimes.ru/2024/12/06/putin-peremiriya-ne-hochet-no-poiti-na-nego-mozhet-tri-prichini-a149786).
    The costs, human and financial, of the war in Ukraine have been far greater than Putin expected or than the Russian people are comfortable with. Moreover, his imperialist approach is increasingly at odds with the nationalism of the Russian people who want to see investments in themselves and with the attitudes of the population that is increasingly tired of the conflict.
    Consequently, Putin, who doesn’t want to have to work hard to continue his current policy, is “now quite capable of searching for a middle ground between war and peace and could, as a last resort, even sign some kind of agreement to restore his strength and sometime, if everything works out, start again doing” what it might appear he has promised not do.
    In short, Putin might agree to a truce, Shelin concludes; but there is no possibility that he will agree to anything like a peace.