Ice Will Remain a Problem on Northern Sea Route for at Least 25 More Years, NSR Administrator Tells Putin

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Apr. 2 – Global warming isn’t having a uniform impact; and in the Arctic north of Russia, there is a clear divide between the western portions of the Northern Sea Route which are now mostly ice free and the eastern ones where ice cover has if anything increased (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/08/western-sections-of-northern-sea-route.html).
    That pattern is a major reason why the NSR carried less than half of the cargo Putin had called for this year, and it is one that is likely to persist for at least 25 years, NSR Administrator Sergey Zybko told Putin at a meeting in Murmansk at the end of last week (kremlin.ru/events/president/news/76558).
    In making this projection, Zybko called for the construction of even more icebreakers and ice-capable ships than the Kremlin has so far and said that he favored the rapid development of a Russian satellite system to monitor ice patterns in the Arctic so that ships could avoid the most serious bottlenecks (thebarentsobserver.com/news/icebreaker-operator-we-are-seeing-a-more-complicated-situation-with-sea-ice/427599)..
    Officials are now exploring another way around the ice problems in the eastern NSR: the possibility that China will construct a trade corridor on land north from Yekaterinburg to the Yamal peninsula where cargo can then be loaded on ships in a portion of that sea route (sever-press.ru/news/transport/kitajtsam-predstavili-proekt-transportnogo-koridora-ot-ekaterinburga-do-jamala/).
    But the costs of such a project, China’s desire not to be caught up in any sanctions regime, the concerns of some Russians about Chinese involvement of that kind in Russia, and the difficulties Russian shippers have had with intermodal transportation make the achievement of such a plan unlikely anytime soon.