Russian Elites Increasing Under Threat from Above and Below, Pertsev Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 1 – With the passing of the old year and the arrival of a new one, Russian elites increasingly find themselves under threat from above where the old rules about immunity from prosecution have decayed and from below with the destruction of bases on which the elite had depended, according to Andrey Pertsev.

            The Riddle commentator notes that “one of the most dramatic events of 2025” was the ouster and then sudden death of former transportation minister Roman Starovoit who was rumored to be facing criminal charges (ridl.io/ru/vertikal-pod-udarom-repressii-natsionalizatsiya-i-konets-garantij-loyalnosti/).

            According to Pertsev, this case “shattered many entrenched norms of the power vertical where a core principle had been guarantees of immunity in exchange for loyalty. Those who reached a certain level were granted a form of indulgence, revocable only in cases of direct conflict with Putin’s inner circle.”

            What happened to Starovoit is the tip of the iceberg in which during the last 12 months, repressions against the bureaucratic elite have “surged.” According to one survey, during the first nine months of this year, the authorities brough criminal cases against 155 senior officials, more than three times as many as in years before Putin launched his expanded war in Ukraine (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2025/10/16/v-2025-godu-v-rossii-arestovano-155-vysokopostavlennykh-chinovnikov).

            At the same time, Pertsev says, “nationalizations have targeted enterprises owned by prominent regional business figures. Many of those affected held positions in regional United Russia branches, served as key party donors, and received state honors, moves that left many I the elite frightened about their prospects for the future.

            And such elites also lost another of what had been their political base when Putin pushed through his municipal reform which abolished local councils and that “eroded the grassroots foundations of the bureaucratic apparatus,” moves that had the effect of leading to the crumbling of those parts of the power vertical resilient.

            Despite these moves, the Kremlin has not put inn place any “new mechanisms or rules” to compensate – “and none are likely in 2026,” the commentator says. Veterans haven’t played the role of a new elite, and the old elite is confronted by “mounting blows and growing frustration,” with every chance that each of these will intensify in the near future.

            According to Pertsev, “New rules remain undefined, breeding uncertainty that disorients the elite. Recruitment for gubernatorial posts falters amid mass arrests and regional budget shortages—the role grows unappealing and risky” and as a result, “the vertical, reliant on regional/municipal bureaucracy and loyal local business, is devouring itself. It hardens as nationalized assets flow to major clans and municipal bodies abolishedbut grows fragile as its base erodes.”

            This is a real crisis, the commentator says; but “the Kremlin shows no intent to reverse course.” Those around Putin assure him there is no serious problem. But there is and this divide “will likely shape the events of 2026, especially as Russia teeters on an economic crisis that by itself threatens political upheaval.”