Increasing Immigration into Russia from Beyond Soviet Space May Lead to Ethnic Conflicts, Shustov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 11 – To reduce danger of ethnic conflicts, Moscow has succeeded over the last two years in reducing the number of migrant workers from CIS countries; but at the same time, it has allowed the number of workers from countries beyond the Soviet space to increase who may also cause problems, Aleksandr Shustov says.

            The number of migrants in Russia from CIS countries still numbers in the millions with the reduction only in the hundreds of thousands, the Russian analyst says, while the number of migrants from “the far abroad” is much lower and the increase miniscule in comparison (ritmeurasia.ru/news--2026-08-11--trudovaja-migracija-iz-dalnego-zarubezhja-v-rossiju-rastet-a-iz-sng-sokraschaetsja-89558).

            But despite that and despite the fact that the new immigrants are far more educated and qualified than those who have come earlier and now are being pressed to leave, Shustov argues that the experience of other countries in the region who have made this shift still are experiencing changes in the ethnic composition of their populations and conflicts as a result.

            In the year ending July 1, he says, the number of migrant workers in Russia fell from seven million to 6.4 million because the number counted as leaving the country exceeded the number entering. That was “the direct result of those measures taken to control migration,” Shustov adds.

            But Moscow could not impose visas on CIS countries lest that lead them to reorient themselves to the West and it could not afford to dispense with all migrant labor because of Russia’s deteriorating demographic situation. Consequently, it used administrative means with CIS countries and allowed more workers to come from beyond the borders of the former USSR.

            The latter category increased by the tens of thousands, he says, even though those involved had to get Russian visas and they were especially beneficial to Russia because in contrast to the largely untrained immigrants of the past, a third of the new immigrants were skilled professionals.

            Many assume that because of those qualities, such immigrants don’t pose any challenges, but that is not the case, Shustov insists. He points to the problems Kyrgyzstan has had as it has admitted more workers from South Asia and warns that if Russia continues to admit such people, it may face “a new sharpening of inter-ethnic contradictions,” that is, conflicts.

            The commentator does not say how Russia will cope if it shuts down both flows of migrants from abroad, but his words suggest that at least some in the Russian leadership aren’t happy about having immigration from beyond the borders of the former Soviet space even if they can regulate it more or less easily by a visa requirement.