Kremlin Fighting Statistical War Against Its Own Country and the West and All Too Often Winning There, Voronenko Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 29 – One of the most important fronts in Putin’s war against his own people and the outside world is the statistical one, a front that the Kremlin leader has had numerous victories because both Russians and outsiders are all too ready to accept statistics as somehow inherently true, Dmytro Voronenko says.

            That allows Putin to convince Russians that things are better overall than they may appear to individuals and too cause foreign governments to adopt policies he favors because his cooked statistics to hide the truth about Russia, the independent Ukrainian analyst says (ridl.io/ru/sem-oshibok-pri-analize-dannyh-iz-rossii-i-kak-ih-izbezhat/).

            Voronenko gives seven examples of Putin’s statistical sleight of hand, although he stresses that these are neither ranked nor comprehensive. Rather, he suggests, they are the tip of a very dangerous iceberg that Russian society and Western governments all too often Titanic-like risk running into. These include:

1.     Treating official figures as market prices when the state can set them thus contributing to the idea that Russia is really a market economy rather than an increasingly command one.

2.     Citing international sources which use Russian ones without mentioning that fact, thus giving more credence to Moscow’s figures and reducing the chance people will question them.

3.     Failing to mention Russian government laws and decrees that have changed what the numbers mean, leading people to compare apples and oranges without recognizing that fact.

4.     Changing the definition of categories so as to be able to leave out key components that are moving in a different direction than Moscow wants to advertise.

5.     Routinely changing the time frame data covers and thus presenting data sets “as if the last four years had not happened” and thus the impact of Putin’s war is concealed.

6.     Ignoring the ways in which Moscow counts stockpiles as part of production and thus buys time for itself when production falls.

7.     And last but far from least, pointing to special actions by the government as just a normal way of doing business and proof that the state is in control and that all is well.

The best way to protect oneself against such attacks by Putin on the statistical front, Voronenko concludes his detailed discussion of each of these, is to be aware of what Putin is doing and question his statistics just as much as would be the case if the numbers came from others, something that all too often now is not the case.