Putin’s Maternal Capital Program has Failed to Boost the Birthrate in Russia, Two HSE Scholars Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 13 – Vladimir Putin’s effort to boost birthrates in Russia by making payments to women who give birth has lowered the age of those who do slightly but it has not increased the number of births per woman by a statistically significant amount, Pavel Kishenin and Angelina Atamenenko say.

            The two graduate students at the Higher School of Economics have presented their findings for the years 2007 to 2023 in a detailed 51-page paper published in the current issue of Demograficheskoye obozreniye (“The Effectiveness of Pronatalist Policy in Russia, 2007 to 2023” (in Russian), Demografcheskoye obozreniye 13(3) (2026): 29-80 at demreview.hse.ru/en/article/view/43132/33566).

            The two show that the maternal capital program has the effect over these 16 years of increasing the number of children by woman in Russia by 0.0288, a miniscule figure within the margin of error and one that will do little to raise the Russian fertility rate of 1.4 to the 2.1 figure needed just to maintain the population at its current levels.

            Despite scholarly research showing that the maternal capital program is not working, the Putin regime continues to believe it will and is continuing to raise subsidies to women who give birth rather than considering other options that might work. (On that pattern, see club-rf.ru/theme/741.)

            Kishenin and Atamanenko also point out that material capital programs, even those far better financed than Russia’s, have also failed to boost fertility rates, a warning that even if Putin continues to raise the amounts of money his government is offering, there is little hope that such a move will do much to increase birthrates.