Paul
Goble
Staunton, May 24 – Many of those who
feel they have no choice but to back Vladimir Putin hate him, Mikhail Kasyanov
says; but the Kremlin leader’s policies are driving even more people toward
open revolt, one that will replace the incumbent not via middle class-dominated
elections but by a mass rising.
In an interview with Galina Ostapovets
of Ukraine’s Obozrevatel portal, the man who served as Putin’s first
prime minister (2000-2004) offers one of the most negative predictions of what
the Kremlin leader’s policies are leading to (obozrevatel.com/russia/planyi-putina-obruchilis-eto-silnyij-udar-on-perezhivaet-i-ne-mozhet-smiritsya-eks-premer-rossii.htm).
Russians are running out of savings,
and the government is not providing them with the kind of assistance they
need. According to Kasyanov, only 43
percent of the 12,000 rubles Putin has promised firms to keep each worker
employed will go to the workers; the rest will come back to the government in
the form of taxes.
Putin understands that as people
face poverty and hunger, they will become increasingly angry; and to prevent
their attitudes from being a threat to him and his regime, he has been adopting
increasingly repressive measures, the former prime minister says. But there are
limits to how effective those will ultimately prove to be.
What makes the situation even worse
than that during the hungry years at the end of Soviet times is that Putin’s
regime has the money to help but doesn’t want to – and because he has so many
people working for the state and thus dependent on him, he believes that they
will continue to support him no matter what.
Kasyanov says that he expects the
referendum on the constitution to take place in June and to pass. “Before then,
Putin will declare everything is fine, that we have defeated all the viruses
and done better than the entire rest of the world. Reports a la Soviet Union.
All ahead. Hurrah!” And threats to those dependent on the state will ensure him
a victory.
“In Russia, people depend on the powers, and
with each year, this dependence is increasing ever more,” the Russian
politician says. “Each citizen depends directly on his paycheck. Putin wants to
feed people from his hand. He doesn’t want that institutions work on their own”
and that people earn money from them.
Putin isn’t going to change course
because he believes that would make him look weak, something he cannot bear. He
will have a pompous parade and he will ban all other meetings because that
combination has worked for him in the past and still has the capacity to work
for him now.
Of course, the Kremlin leader will
falsify the results of the referendum. Online voting will only make that easier
for him because it will be harder for monitors under Russian conditions to
check what goes on with the 20 to 30 percent of votes coming in by electronic
means or mail. Elections will become increasingly meaningless as a legitimating
tool.
“The majority of people given the
existing situation,” Kasyanov continues, “will withdraw into their families,
the kitchens and dachas. They will simply survive.” Those in the big cities who
protested in the past won’t do so now because the repressive measures will be
too great. Putin will block almost everything.
One must remember that “people are
not prepared to defend their constitutional rights, go out into the street and
demand that they be observed and respected.” Those who have protested are now
afraid, but coming in their place are the increasingly impoverished masses who
will ultimately carry through a revolt. “This will be horrific.”
“The change of power will take place
not through elections where the middle class dominates and explains to people
how it is necessary to correctly form policy and lead the country out of the
crisis.” Instead, it will be led by “hungry and furious people” who will seek
to sweep everything away.
Putin understands this, but his
response is to increase repression rather than help the population, and that
brings this date ever closer. He believes
he can control the situation, but that is increasingly in doubt. Not only the
hungry masses but even “many Putin supporters and backers already now admit
that they do not like him.”
“Some even hate him,” Kasyanov says,
but most of them assume there is no choice. As things get worse, they will
realize that there is. “The issue is not one of personalities.” A sensible government
could be created in a day or two. “That is a small problem” once people realize
the fraudulence of the very idea that Putin is forever.
Ultimately, there is no “irreplaceable”
power. “Our country is normal. Russians want to shape their future; the
majority already doesn’t expect help from the state. They ask only that it not
interfere” as it has been doing.
“People younger than 60 already do
not need the help of the state for survival.” And that gives one confidence,
Kasyanov concludes, that “Russia will be able to go along a normal path,” the
one it was moving toward before Putin began his efforts to turn the country in
an entirely other and dangerous direction.
