Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 1 – Twenty years
ago, Russian German analyst Aleksandr Rahr described Vladimir Putin as “the
German in the Kremlin.” Now, Moscow economist Yevgeny Gontmakher says in alarm
that the Kremlin leader is rapidly transforming the Russian Federation into a
remake of the German Democratic Republic as East Germany was formally known.
Putin is no longer issuing strategic
plans or even new “decrees” about the future because he hasn’t met any of them,
an outcome that he and his regime are working hard to blame on the pandemic
rather than acknowledging their own mistakes, the economist says (mk.ru/politics/2020/08/01/rossiya-prevratitsya-v-gdr-tendencii-socialnoekonomicheskogo-razvitiya-strany-nastorazhivayut.html).
“The level of professionalism of the
powers that be is already so low that ‘national projects, developed in
connection with the previous ‘May’ degrees don’t correspond to reality, as the
Accounting Chamber has shown in its analysis,” Gontmakher says. And the Kremlin isn’t issuing anything similar
now.
The absence of any clear plan
prompts one to ask, he continues, “what is going to happen with Russia.” Its
overall course is clear: “Russia will lose yet another decade in its economic
and social development” if it continues as it is going now and will soon
resemble Erich Honecker’s East Germany.
Gontmakher lists 12 ways in which
this is so:
1.
“The
political system will finally be transformed into a laughable decoration” rather
than reality with elections occurring only with results “known in advance.”
2.
“Any
social activity not sanctioned by the authorities even if it does not have an
openly political character, will be blocked.”
3.
There
will be “an informal but total censorship of the media” on anything concerning
the state.
4.
“The
Internet will work according to the Chinese model, with ‘undesirable’ sites and
content blocked.”
5.
“Digitalization
will allow for the complete control of the activities of any individual at
work, on the street, in public places and often in the home.”
6.
“The
borders will still be open but mostly for emigration of those who disagree with
the powers or think differently,” an arrangement the powers will support in
order to get rid of such people and make the control of those who remain
easier.
7.
“The
Russian economy as before will be based on the export of oil, gas and other raw
materials. But the size of this export will constantly fall because of low
prices on world markets” and changes in patterns of energy consumption.
8.
“The
Russian economy not only will not become the fifth-largest in the world in
absolute terms” but may fall further down the list as others grow.
9.
The
government will claim victories in the fight against poverty but only by using
completely falsified statistics.
10.
Quality
medical care will be available to those Russians who can pay for it, but most
Russians won’t have the money to do so and their health will deteriorate.
11.
“Schools
will made into places where children are intensively ‘trained’ to follow the
spiritual bindings” the Kremlin wishes to promote. Other subjects will suffer
right up through universities.
12.
Movie
theaters will show “only those pictures which promote ‘positive feelings’ in
people toward the order put in place in the country.”
Having
composed this list, Gontmakher says, he realizes the analogy with East Germany
may not be the most appropriate one. Instead, he says, Putin is taking Russia
in the direction of Orwell’s 1984 and everyone except perhaps Putin and his
cronies will suffer as a result.
