Kazakhstan and Other Caspian Littoral States Challenge Russian Dominance of Merchant Shipping There

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 13 – As important as Kazakhstan’s naval force on the Caspian has become as a counterbalance to Russia’s, its expansion of its merchant fleet that will carry cargo to and from its ports to the western and southern sides of that inland sea may be even more important not only for its ties with China and the West but as a means to be more independent of Moscow.

             In the past year, Astana has added eight new cargo ships to its merchant fleet, vessels that will not only carry cargo across the Caspian but also on the inland rivers of that land-locked Central Asian country. And to ensure they can operate, it has launched dredging operations in key locations (bugin.info/detail/volny-rosta-kazakhstan-ob/ru).

            Russia shows little sign of currently being able to match this buildup, although some of the other Caspian littoral states, Azerbaijan and Iran in particular, are also strengthening their merchant fleets. These actions will further reduce Russian influence there and open the way for greater influence by China and Turkey,  both of which are supporting such efforts.

New Draft Nationality Strategy Focuses on Boosting Ethnic Russians and Countering Foreign Threats

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 15 – Moscow’s new nationality policy strategy document for the first time devotes much of its attention to preserving and developing the culture of the ethnic Russian people as the “state-forming” nation in the country and expands its attention on how to counter threats to Russia’s stability emanating from abroad.

            Prepared by the Federal Agency for Nationality Affairs and covering the period through 2036, the new document once approved will replace the one that had been in force since 2018 slated to run out this year (regulation.gov.ru/Regulation/Npa/PublicView?npaID=157502 and nazaccent.ru/content/44100-fadn-opublikovalo-proekt-novoj-strategii-nacionalnoj/).

            The two most striking features are the draft’s focus on promoting the culture of ethnic Russians, something earlier nationality strategy documents said little or nothing about, and its obsession with threats to the country’s stability emanating from abroad, including but not limited to immigration and the impact of foreign efforts to reach ethnic groups in Russia.

            The current draft is certain to spark debate, possibly leading to a delay in its adoption as was the case with the earlier ones (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/10/new-nationality-strategy-opens-way-to.html). But the two main thrusts are likely to remain in place and reflect the Putin regime’s focus on the ethnic Russian majority and threats from abroad.

           And this focus overshadows the pattern which was true of all those earlier documents: a focus in the first instance on non-Russian minorities and the need to provide special protections for them because they are typically not in a position to defend themselves as effectively as the dominant ethnic Russian majority  

Measles, Whooping Cough and Rubella Skyrocket in Russia Because of Impact of Anti-Vaxxer Groups, Moscow Experts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 14 – Russia’s consumer protection agency, Rospotrebnadzor, says that the number of cases of measles, whooping cough and rubella are skyrocketing in Russia; and medical experts in that country say that this is the result of the impact of anti-vaxxer groups who have convinced many parents not to immunize their children.

            The number of cases of measles, for example, almost doubled between 2023 and 2024, the Russian government agency says; and medical experts say that most of the reason for that increase is a radical decline in the share of Russian children getting vaccinated (kommersant.ru/doc/7794350 and fedpress.ru/news/77/society/3384008).

            Many parents have been convinced by anti-vaxxer propaganda that shots are more likely to cause harm than do good and so are not having their children vaccinated. As a result, the collective immunity of the population has fallen because to be effective 95 percent or more of a population must be inoculated.

            Unless the schools, media and doctors can convince parents to have their children immunized as they themselves were earlier, the future is bleak: these diseases which should have been wiped out by the shots are likely to become at least or even more widespread than they were in the past, experts say.

 

Case of Far Eastern Ukrainian Highlights Need for Clear Definition of ‘Ethnically Motivated Persecution’

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 13 – Charges Russian officials have brought against Nataliya Romanenko, a Ukrainian in Russia’s Khabarovsk Kray, based solely on her efforts to retain her identity and culture highlight the urgent need for a clear definition of “ethnically motivated persecution,” the ABN portal says.

            Because no such definition now exists, it suggests, many Ukrainians who are being persecuted in the Russian Federation for their language and culture alone are not counted as victims of persecution becaluse they aren’t political enough (abn.org.ua/en/liberation-movements/far-eastern-ukrainian-natalia-romanenko-her-path-of-formation-activities-and-history-of-persecution/).

            But under Putin, such persecution has become ever more common especially with regard to Russian treatment of Ukrainians and deserves both to be defined and included in the list of actions that qualify someone as a political prisoner or victim of political persecution however “unpolitical” their actions may appear to be. Otherwise, this type of crime will only increase.

Protests in Altay Kray Likely Puts On Hold Plans to Amalgamate Altay Republic with It

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 13 – One of the most obvious possibilities of the amalgamation of federal subjects that Putin has been promoting off and on since the start of his rule is that between the larger and predominantly ethnic Russian Altay Kray and the smaller Altay Republic which has a Russian plurality but a much larger non-Russian minority.

            There were rumors earlier this year that Putin would combine these two this year to restart that effort (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/04/another-sign-this-time-in-altai.html); but as has happened in other cases, something has gotten in the way, this time protest against Moscow’s moves against local self-government.

            The people of Altay Kray have taken to the streets and even blocked a highway to protest that Kremlin move (themoscowtimes.com/2025/06/13/kremlin-backed-reforms-spark-protests-in-russias-altai-republic-a89441 and novayagazeta.eu/articles/2025/06/12/na-altae-mestnye-zhiteli-perekryli-trassu-vo-vremia-protestov-protiv-glavy-regiona-andreia-turchaka-news).

            Like the Shiyes anti-trash dump protests which detailed plans to consolidate regions in the Russian North, these protests almost certainly will delay any amalgamation in the Russian east lest Moscow appear to reward or buy off a federal subject whose population protests against what the center is doing. 

            At the very least, these protests will delay any move to unite the two federal subjects – and that delay by itself may cause the Kremlin to put off at least for a time plans to combine any other pairs of regions and republics, a lesson to other federal subjects that may be under threat of losing their status. 

Diverting Siberian River Water to Central Asia ‘Almost Certainly’ Won’t Happen This Century, Zakhvatov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 15 – Despite recent talk about new plans to divert Siberian river water to Central Asia, such a project almost certainly won’t happen in this century because the obstacles to it are now even greater than at the end of Soviet times when Moscow decided to kill the project. Andrey Zakhvatov says.

            The Russian commentator who specializes on Central Asia and who in his youth worked on Brezhnev-era plans to divert Siberian river water to Central Asia says that the problems that would have to be overcome are so enormous that the completion of such a project before 2100 is “hardly possible” (ng.ru/dipkurer/2025-06-15/11_9272_courier2.html).

            Among the problems such a project would face, many of them far larger and better understood now than 40 years ago, are the following, Zahvatov says in an article for the Diplomatic Courier insert of Moscow’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta:

·       Now far more countries are involved than were then because the USSR has disintegrated and the new countries of Central Asia have emerged and because China and potentially other countries are interested in gaining access to water from Siberia. 

·       The costs of building canals or pipelines and of constructing new power plants are prohibitive. The Central Asian countries lack the funds to pay for these things; and no outside power, including Russia is ready to provide financing.

·       The impact on Siberia and the Russian North, partially understood in the 1980s, is now far better known and thus Moscow along with ever more ordinary Russians oppose such a project because it would have horrific consequences for Russia.

And in addition, Zakhvatov says, there is another reason, albeit seldom mentioned, why Russians will oppose the plan: if Central Asia got the water from Siberia, its birthrates would rise; and that trend in turn would put additional migration pressure on the Russian Federation, something Russians don’t want. 

KBR Government Joins Circassian Activists in Opposition to Moscow Plan to Require Anyone Seeking Repatriation to Know Russian

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 12 – Circassian activists both in the diaspora and in the North Caucasus homeland have opposed a Moscow plan to require anyone seeking repatriation to know Russian, arguing that it is unconstitutional because Circassian is the state language in three federal subjects, Adygeya, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Karachay-Cherkessia.

            Now, the nationalities ministry of Kabardino-Balkaria has joined them by calling on the Russian government to change the draft legislation so that those Circassians abroad who know Circassian will have the right to repatriate to these three republics (kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/412148 and zapravakbr.ru/index.php/30-uncategorised/1979-vlasti-kabardino-balkarii-otreagirovali-na-diskriminatsionnyj-zakonoproekt-o-repatriatsii-v-rf-vnesennyj-konstantinom-zatulinym).

            What makes this development so important is that it is a sign that Circassian governments within the current borders of the Russian Federation are now animated by many of the same feelings as the Circassian diaspora and that they are prepared to line up with that diaspora against Moscow.

            That would have been almost unthinkable earlier in Putin’s reign. That it is happening now is a sign that as he ages, Circassian governments are increasingly willing to stand up for their nations, a trend likely true in other non-Russian republics as well and one that will frighten the Kremlin but encourage national movements.