Loose and Not-So-Loose Talk about Russia Reestablishing USSR Outrage and Alienate Former Soviet Republics

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 25 – Three weeks ago, Kasym-Jomart Tokayev, the president of Kazakhstan, said in an interview with Moscow’s Komsomolskaya pravda that his country wants to have good relations with Russia but has no interest in joining some union state (kem.kp.ru/daily/27137/4228949/).

            Since that time, the Kazakh media have played up his remarks and highlighted the support Tokayev’s position has among the Kazakhs (caravan.kz/news/ot-sozdaniya-novogo-sssr-do-virusa-totalitarizma-kak-rossijjskie-smi-razduvayut-temu-prisoedineniya-kazakhstana-k-rossii-642912/).

            The Kazakhstan media, Kazakh-language and Russian-language as well, played up what they suggested were the threats Russia presents to Kazakhstan, either by absorbing it whole or annexing a portion of it (e.g., tengrinews.kz/kazakhstan_news/kazahstan-planiruet-prisoedinenie-soyuznomu-gosudarstvu-404235/ and tengrinews.kz/blogpost_author/tokaev-otvetil-na-vopros-o-stsenarii-kryima-v-kazahstane-404238/).

            The Caravan story notes that whenever Putin says something suggesting he regrets the disintegration of the USSR or the Russian commentators say that he wants to put it back together, Kazakh and other Central Asian outlets respond with outrage, further poisoning relations between them and Russia.

            When TASS said that the reunification of the USSR was proceeding “rapidly” (ria.ru/20200419/1570265003.html) and when a Russian television reported on what it said were “secret negotiations to make that happen (absoluttv.ru/14171-putin-hochet-vozrodit-sssr.html), Central Asians were furious (central.asia-news.com/ru/articles/cnmi_ca/features/2020/04/27/feature-01).

            Many observers suggest that Putin is doing no more than playing to the anger many Russians still have about what they say as the loss of their territory to others, a theme Putin developed most radically this week (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2020/06/putin-says-russia-gave-land-to.html).

           

            Such observers also point to the position of numerous Russian commentators that Moscow couldn’t take back the entire USSR even if it tried and that there are compelling reasons to think that it would lose more from the process than it would gain. Caravan even cites one such article (svpressa.ru/politic/article/248467/).

            But such a focus on Moscow and what it says ignores the counterproductive impact that its loose and not-so-loose words are having on Russia’s neighbors, an impact that not only makes the restoration of any Moscow-centric empire unlikely but increasingly ensures that the governments and peoples of this region will be increasingly hostile toward Moscow.

            Everyone recognizes how Putin’s policies have outraged and alienated Georgia and Ukraine. But far less attention has been paid to the ways in which his words and those of his supporters are doing the same thing everywhere else. 

Putin No Longer Cares How He Looks to Others at Home or Abroad, Shevtsova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 25 – “An entire era is coming to an end” for Russia, Liliya Shevtsova says. Vladimir Putin is no longer interested in pretending to have Russia and its regime be part of Europe. Instead, “everything has become harsher and clearer,” and what is on view threatens Russians, the world, and ultimately the man behind this change.

            The main thing the upcoming referendum does, the Russian analyst says, is not making Putin president for life but rather “personalizing the Russian state,” something that requires constant legitimation, the rejection of which will be viewed as treason and betrayal (facebook.com/ShevtsovaLilia/posts/2637489799841168?_rdc=1&_rdr).

            This change comes at a high price, Shevtsova says. “The price of putting in place a new system of power through a return to the past is the rejection of any movement toward the future. Even thinking about a vision of the future will look like sacrilege.”  And even small changes will be rejected lest they open the way a la Gorbachev to larger ones.

            Putin’s decision to use a referendum to achieve this end shows that he “doesn’t trust the elite. Possibly, he even despises it.” If so, the elite is in trouble because “the constitutional ‘voting’ unties Putin’s hands in dealing with the political class.”  And those who have tried to cooperate with him for one reason or another will find their lives far more difficult as well.

            In the short term, this may help Putin hold and even build power. But by making his rule lifetime, the new changes do not resolve the problem of what will happen after he dies. “With the liquidation of [all] institutional regulators, this process will become a threat to the stability of the state and society.”

            Thus, Shevtsova says, “by fixing the powers in cement today, the Kremlin is creating an explosive problem for the future.”

            Moreover, when he does pass from the scene, his successors will almost certainly build their power by denouncing his and putting at risk what he has tried to do, even if these future leaders too will want to declare that “l’etat c’cest moi” as they may want to given what those around the current leader are like.

            Moreover, Shevtsova continues, “the flight into the past will define the future fate of the country. Militarism, the destruction of the human personality as an independent subject makes progress impossible. [And any] hopes for an economic ‘breakthrough’ and ‘digitalization’ will dissipate.”

            But the problems won’t stop at Russia’s borders, the commentator says. “Putin understands that he cannot achieve [what he wants] by means of economic power. And as a result, his idea is to have a world order based on the rebirth of the Club of Victors at the end of World War II.”

            Few will be interested in that, and those like Germany which he has left out will certainly be opposed.  But Putin’s pursuit of this will mean that they like the Russian elites and the Russian people are going to suffer as well because of the decisions the Kremlin leader has now put in concrete.

Russia’s Social Constitution Council Calls on Putin to Postpone Referendum Vote

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 25 – The co-presidents of the Social Constitution Council have called on Vladimir Putin to postpone the referendum on constitutional amendments to prevent the further spread of the pandemic and to allow time for alternatives to be developed so that Russians will have a choice.

            The letter from Yevgeny Gontmakher, Leonid Nikitinsky, Vladimir Ryzhkov and Grigory Yavlinsky was sent two days ago but has been posted online only today because of the Victory Day parade (yavlinsky.ru/article/obshhestvennyj-konstitutsionnyj-sovet-predlozhil-putinu-perenesti-golosovanie-po-popravkam-i-sdelat-ego-alternativnym/).

            There is no indication that Putin plans to agree or that the pandemic will stop anytime soon. In the last 24 hours, Russia officially registered 7113 new cases, bringing the cumulative total to 613,994, and 92 new deaths, raising that total to 8605. Both are far lower than in recent weeks (t.me/COVID2019_official/879).

            The Russian media are devoting ever more attention to the possibility that a vaccine will be ready for widespread use by the fall (tass.ru/obschestvo/8815535) as well as to reports that placing coronavirus victims in a magnetic field helps to improve their chances for recovery (ria.ru/20200625/1573443109.html).

            News about infection declines and spikes and about openings and closings remained mixed. Arkhangelsk hospitals said the number of cases had risen so far that they no longer had enough doctors to treat them (tass.ru/v-strane/8815973). And 30 percent of Russia’s holiday resorts said they would remain closed this year (ura.news/news/1052437889).

            But Moscow officials said that theaters will reopen on July 15 if local and regional governments say conditions are right (kommersant.ru/doc/4391372).  Foreign specialists with work contracts will now be allowed to enter Russia again (ura.news/news/1052437923), and Russian Aviation is calling for the restoration of international flights, beginning with CIS countries (ura.news/news/1052437843).

            The economic news, however, was uniformly bad. The economic development ministry said that Russians stand to lose 1.3 trillion rubles (20 billion US dollars) in income this year, and almost a trillion more in 2021. Those declines will also hit the pension and medical insurance funds (rbc.ru/economics/25/06/2020/5ef1c34b9a79471d3a3b1697).

            What aid the Russian government has promised isn’t getting through in many cases, and Vladimir Putin has ordered an expansion of state supervision and control of its distribution, something many assume will be kept in place even after the pandemic passes (rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5ef48df29a7947ba5429933b).

            The same thing is likely to happen in border regions, with many people living on the Russian side being unable to visit their relatives and friends on the other for months or even years ahead. According to regionalist expert Vadim Shtepa, this is all about control and not about protecting peoples’ health (severreal.org/a/30679952.html).

            Meanwhile, FinExpertiza reports that marriages are down across Russia by 40.2 percent since the beginning of the pandemic. Declines are especially great in the North Caucasus Federal District where national traditions involve large gatherings for weddings, something not now allowed. The greatest decline has been in Kabardino-Balkaria were marriages are off by 95.8 percent from a year earlier (akcent.site/mneniya/8495).