Paul Goble
Staunton, May 29 – In what he
describes as an act of “political bookkeeping,” Andrey Lipsky, the deputy chief
editor of “Novaya gazeta” describes what Russia has gained and what it has lost
so far as a result of the Ukrainian crisis, thus providing a useful checklist
of the balance now and its likely direction in the future.
He identifies 14 sectors where
Russia has suffered political “losses”
and three where he says Russia has had “profits.” Lipsky’s balance sheet certainly suggests
Vladimir Putin is facing “a deficit” as a result of events in Ukraine, but of
course, unlike a financial spread sheet, there is no simple way to quantify
either side of this ledger (novayagazeta.ru/politics/63767.html).
o The 14 gains
include:
o Broken relations
with Ukraine. All talk about fraternal
peoples has gone out the window, and “no government of Ukraine or any serious
political force in that country will come to terms with the loss of its
territory.” Worse, “Ukrainians will find it difficult to distinguish between the
‘bad’ Kremlin and the ‘good’ Russians.” They won’t forget all this, even if
Moscow changes course.
o The collapse of “the
Eurasian project.” Without Ukraine, “it is almost meaningless,” Lipsky says.
Moreover, neither Mensk nor Astana was enthusiastic about what Russia has done.
And that means they may agree to an economic union if Russia insists, “But any
political superstructures will be too dangerous” for them to accept.
o The loss of “the Russia world.” The idea of a traditional Slavic, Orthodox
and Russian community was supposed to be the format for the future. Moscow’s
actions have called all of these elements into question and mean that “Russia
will hardly be able to use it for its goals of ‘ingathering’” of Russian lands
or even keeping its influence where it was on this basis.
o A worsening of
its relations with neighboring countries add former allies.
o The
international community’s decision to view Russia as “a threat to the world
order” rather than part of it.
o As a result of
Ukraine, Lipsky says, “Russia has lost an important political-moral advantage in
the international arena” because it could always point until Crimea to its “scrupulous
observation of the procedues and norms of international law” and because “for
the first time in its contemporary history, Russia is completely isolated
internationally.”
o Russia’s
violation of the Budapest memorandum on the inviolability of Ukraine’s borders
is leading other countries to assume that they cannot count on Moscow to live
up to its other international agreements and to reconsider their own actions
given this uncertainty.
o As a result of
Ukraine, “Russia’s leaders have lost the trust of their colleagues” and thus
have lost room for maneuver with them.
o The reputation
of the Russian foreign ministry has been destroyed as a reliable partner.
o As a result of
Ukraine, Russia has lost the battle to restrain other post-Soviet states from
joining NATO and the EU. Instead, it has accelerated that process.
o Russia has lost
almost all of the gains it made as a participant in Western structures.
o The status of
Russian communities beyond the borders of Russia has significantly
deteriorated. Moscow’s talk of being their defender has backfired, and they
know it.
o Russia’s economic
development has suffered and conditions have been created that mean this
suffering will be prolonged.
o Finally, the
Ukrainian events have led to the deteriorating of the situation of the Russian
opposition, independent media and those who disagree with the Kremlin. They
have sparked “a witch hunt”within Russia, “and from history we know that witch
hunts lead to the destruction of social strucutres, the splitting of society,
the driving of the opposition into the underground, and the establishment of ineffective
repressive political systems of an authoritarian and totalitarian type.”
On the other side of the political
ledge, Lipsky identifies three gains, although each of these comes with direct
costs as well as the broader indirect costs just mentioned.
o There is Crimea
and Sevastpol, something that offers Moscow the chance to project power into
the Black Sea and extract oil and gas from its seabed.
o The Kremlin has
succeeded in putting gin place “a mechanism for the consolidation of the
Russian population around the patriotic idea of ‘assembling the Russian lands.”
o And the
Ukrainian events have provided a boost in Putin’s popularity.
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