Kazakhs Now Posting in Facebook More Often in Kazakh rather than Russian, Studies Find

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 26 – Kazakhs are increasingly likely to use their national language rather than Russian when they go online, and now are posting in Kazakh more often than in Russian on one platform (Facebook) even though Russian is the more widely used language on others, according to new studies.

            What that means is that Kazakhs are increasingly using their national language even in a sector that had long been assumed to be most immune to the transition away from Russian (tribune.kz/v-almaty-proshla-brand-analytics-conference-kazakhstan-2026/ and altyn-orda.kz/kazahskij-yazyk-oboshyol-russkij-v-odnoj-iz-sotssetej-kazahstana-chto-pokazali-tsifry/).

            At a recent conference of researchers on Kazakh internet habits, Brand Analytics reported that as of this summer, 41.4 percent of all posts on Facebook in Kazakhstan were in Kazakh, slightly more than the 39.2 percent that were in Russian. On almost all other platforms, Russian still dominated although its share of posts continues to decline.

            One major exception, the media research center said, involved Telegram posts. There, Kazakh has not gained relative to Russian. Instead, in recent months, the number of reports in Kazakh and the quantity of writers has declined approximately by a third, a sign Kazakhs may no longer be using this channel as much or choose to use Russian to reach a broader audience.

            Because so many factors are involved in changes in the use of Kazakh as opposed to Russian, individual figures need to be examined with care, the researchers say; but the overall trend is clear: Kazakhs are increasingly inclined to use their national language on almost all online platforms, yet another indication of the growing power of Kazakh.

Azerbaijan’s Villages are Dying, Threatening Country’s Future Even Before Oil Runs Out, Mejlis Deputies Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 27 – Even though Baku officials insist that villagers form almost half of Azerbaijan’s population, the real situation is much worse with villages emptying out as residents leave for Baku to earn a living, even if they continue to be counted by the government as villagers, deputies in the country’s parliament say.

            The impact of the influx of villagers on Baku is obvious to everyone, Mejlis deputies say; but the consequences of the dying out of villages for the country is less so even though this negative trend is intensifying and threatening the ability of the country to feed itself (minval.az/news/124559785).

            The government says there are 4246 villages in the country, but in 129 of them, fewer than 50 people actually live, and in 20 to 30, the villages are now ghost towns because no one lives there. Young people have left and the older generation is dying out. If nothing is done, deputies, say, the country will face “the extinction of villages.”

            The emptying out of rural areas is a problem that many countries including those in the former Soviet space face, but it is a particular one where investment in agriculture lags and where a reduction in the population means a reduction in agricultural production and consequently higher prices and greater dependence on imports results.

            Azerbaijan is only beginning to focus on this issue as part of discussions about life in Azerbaijan “after oil,” the situation the country will face in three decades of so; but deputies are now saying that unless the problems of declining villages are faced, the crisis for Baku may occur far sooner than that. 

Ecumenical Patriarchate Assures Uniates He Prays for a Ukrainian Victory

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 26 – During a visit to Rome where he met both the Pope and Stanislav Shevchuk,the head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church,  Patriarch Bartholemew of Constantinpole assured the Uniate leader that he prays regularly for a Ukrainian victory against Russian aggression.

            Not surprisingly, Russian outlets are outraged not so much because the Ecumenical patriarch is praying for the side he favors much as the Moscow patriarch is doing the same for his but rather because Bartholemew has ranked the defense of Catholics Greek and otherwise above the defense of Orthodox (rusk.ru/newsdata.php?idar=122417).

            Such arguments show just how deeply divided eastern and western Christianity remain at least in the Russian understanding and thus how much deeper the divide between Moscow and the West really is, one that reflects not just the last few centuries but a millenium that will take a long time to overcome whatever the politics of the moment in the future may be.

Sakha Should Follow Baltic Model to Independence and Membership in EU and NATO, Former Deputy Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 26 – Many Russians and some non-Russians argue that numerically small peoples like the Sakha should not pursue independence because it will prove a poisoned chalice with one kind of oppression replacing another, but that is not necessary as the Baltic drive to recover independence shows, Aleksandr Ivanov says.

            The former Sakha Il Tumen regional parliamentarian who was stripped of his position after being declared “a foreign agent” says that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania show a different and better way forward (themoscowtimes.com/2026/10/26/dictatorship-isnt-destiny-for-russias-indigenous-peoples-they-can-build-independent-democracies-a94088).

            “The three Baltic states started in 1991 with the same Soviet legacy” as the people of Sakha, Ivanov says, “a devastated economy, Russification, nomenklatura officials and an absence of market institutions. Over 30 years, they became democracies and members of the European Union and NATO.”

            Estonia had few people “with almost no natural resources” but quickly “build one of the world’s most digital states … gave the world Skype … and what in what is particularly important” to him, the Sakha politician says, “restored its language’s status as the state language after decades of russification, precisely what we are fighting for today.”        

 “We in Sakha have a vast territory and enormous mineral wealth: the republic produces most of Russia’s diamonds, as well as gold, coal, gas and rare earth metals.” Now, “imagine Estonian institutions — transparent government, high-quality education and digital governance — combined with the resources that now flow to Moscow.”

“Of course,” Ivanov continues, “resources alone guarantee nothing. They can be used for good or for harm. That is precisely why we need to learn from those who have managed to build a strong, free and educated society without gas or diamonds. [And]We have much to learn from Estonia and its Baltic neighbors.”

“We can no longer trust new agreements with the colonial power sitting in Moscow. Every time the beast grew weak, it persuaded us to stay and promised to treat us well. Every time, it deceived us. It is time to break free of our Stockholm syndrome and look with clear eyes.”

And he concludes with optimism: “My people — like the Tatars, Bashkirs, Buryats, Altaians, Erzya and others — are ready to live of their own free will and develop their independent, multiethnic republics themselves, free of Moscow’s chauvinism, xenophobia and imperialism.”

Czech Scholars Excavating GULAG Sites in Central Asia, Unthinkable in Putin’s Russia and Not Yet Occurring in Most Former Soviet Republics

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 25 – The Putin regime has put an end to efforts to explore the ruins of Soviet GULAG sites lest people draw the obvious parallels between what the Soviet dictator did nearly a century ago and what the Russian dictator is doing now, and few former Soviet republics have taken up the challenge of excavating sites on their territories.

            But there is an important exception to this pattern: Czech archaeologists are now exploring GULAG ruins in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, research that tells a great deal not only about the Stalin prison camp system in those republics but also about what it was like in the RSFSR and elsewhere (gulag.cz/cs/novinka/zapomenuty-gulag-serie-debat-predstavi-nase-letosni-expedice-do-kazachstanu-a-uzbekistanu).

            (For a discussion of what the Czechs have been doing and why it matters both for Central Asia and more generally, see Aleksandra Vagner’s article on the Radio Liberty portal at svoboda.org/a/v-rossii-takoe-issledovanie-nevozmozhno-cheshskie-arheologi-izuchayut-steplag/33883930.html.)

            As Putin shuts down genuine research on the Stalin era, such efforts by foreign scholars and the governments of the now-independent former Soviet republics are increasingly important and should be followed by those whose concerns focus on what happened in the Russian Federation where most of the Stalin camps were located.

HIV has Reached ‘Epidemic Proportions’ in a Third of Russia’s Federal Subjects, Experts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 25 – HIV infections have reached “epidemic proportions” in 27 of Russia’s federal subjects, with transmissions increasingly occurring through heterosexual contacts and the failure of medical facilities to prevent the spread.  As a result, as many as three percent of Russian men in their 40s are infected and one percent of pregnant women.

            Those are just some of the dire reports of Russian experts surveyed by Mikhail Sergeyev, who monitors economic developments for Nezavisimaya Gazeta, reports that suggest that while mortality rates from HIV have fallen there in recent years, that may not continue if the rate of the spread of HIV increases  (ng.ru/economics/2026-10-25/1_9610_hiv.html).

            One reason for pessimism is that many who are infected do now know that, and “only half of the people living with HIV” are getting anti-retroviral treatments, experts say. That low coverage means that “at least 600,000 HIV sources continue to actively participate in the transmission of the virus,” they continue.

            According to the World Health Organization, controlling the spread of HIV requires that countries achieve what is known as the 95-95-95 benchmark, with 95 percent of those infected knowing their status, 95 percent receiving ART treatment, and 95 percent of those achieving viral suppression. At present, Russia is not close to any of those figures.

            Russian medical officials say that “two thirds of the new HIV transmissions in Russia are the result of heterosexual contact” rather than drug abuse or homosexual activity;” and they note that hospitals and other medical institutions “are one again becoming channels of transmission of the virus.”

            Moscow has lifted restrictions on ART medications, but the problem of a lack of the availability of such drugs is still so great that the hardest hit regions are now trying to fill in the gap, although they rarely are able to do so not only because of the high cost of such drugs but also because of their lack of funds for such things. 

Almost 40 Percent of Russians Now have Relative who has Served in Ukraine, Survey Data Show

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 25 – It is a commonplace now to say that Ukraine’s drone attacks have brought Putin’s war in Ukraine home to Russians; but in fact, given the rotation of men through the Russian invasion force, it is now the case that 37 percent of the Russian people have a relative who has served there, Elena Konyeva of Extreme Scan says polls show.

            Given that even in the cases of families without such a veteran of the war in Ukraine, the likelihood is increasingly great that they too know someone who fought and perhaps died in that conflict and thus the war has come home to Russia in this most affecting way, the director of ExtremeScan says (re-russia.net/expertise/0465/).

            The share of Russians reporting that they or their relatives have served in Ukraine has continued to rise in Extreme Scan surveys. In May 2022, only 15 percent said that was the case; in February 2023, 23 percent did; and in a more recent survey, 38 percent did, with an increasing fraction reporting that they had more than one relative who was a veteran.

            Konyeva says that the experience of having a relative serve in Ukraine has made those with it more ready to discuss the war, in some cases making them more supportive of continuing to fight until some kind of Russian victory is won but in far more leading them to declare that they would like to see the war over.