Sakha Should Follow Baltic Model to Independence and Membership in EU and NATO, Former Deputy Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 26 – Many Russians and some non-Russians argue that numerically small peoples like the Sakha should not pursue independence because it will prove a poisoned chalice with one kind of oppression replacing another, but that is not necessary as the Baltic drive to recover independence shows, Aleksandr Ivanov says.

            The former Sakha Il Tumen regional parliamentarian who was stripped of his position after being declared “a foreign agent” says that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania show a different and better way forward (themoscowtimes.com/2026/10/26/dictatorship-isnt-destiny-for-russias-indigenous-peoples-they-can-build-independent-democracies-a94088).

            “The three Baltic states started in 1991 with the same Soviet legacy” as the people of Sakha, Ivanov says, “a devastated economy, Russification, nomenklatura officials and an absence of market institutions. Over 30 years, they became democracies and members of the European Union and NATO.”

            Estonia had few people “with almost no natural resources” but quickly “build one of the world’s most digital states … gave the world Skype … and what in what is particularly important” to him, the Sakha politician says, “restored its language’s status as the state language after decades of russification, precisely what we are fighting for today.”        

 “We in Sakha have a vast territory and enormous mineral wealth: the republic produces most of Russia’s diamonds, as well as gold, coal, gas and rare earth metals.” Now, “imagine Estonian institutions — transparent government, high-quality education and digital governance — combined with the resources that now flow to Moscow.”

“Of course,” Ivanov continues, “resources alone guarantee nothing. They can be used for good or for harm. That is precisely why we need to learn from those who have managed to build a strong, free and educated society without gas or diamonds. [And]We have much to learn from Estonia and its Baltic neighbors.”

“We can no longer trust new agreements with the colonial power sitting in Moscow. Every time the beast grew weak, it persuaded us to stay and promised to treat us well. Every time, it deceived us. It is time to break free of our Stockholm syndrome and look with clear eyes.”

And he concludes with optimism: “My people — like the Tatars, Bashkirs, Buryats, Altaians, Erzya and others — are ready to live of their own free will and develop their independent, multiethnic republics themselves, free of Moscow’s chauvinism, xenophobia and imperialism.”

Czech Scholars Excavating GULAG Sites in Central Asia, Unthinkable in Putin’s Russia and Not Yet Occurring in Most Former Soviet Republics

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 25 – The Putin regime has put an end to efforts to explore the ruins of Soviet GULAG sites lest people draw the obvious parallels between what the Soviet dictator did nearly a century ago and what the Russian dictator is doing now, and few former Soviet republics have taken up the challenge of excavating sites on their territories.

            But there is an important exception to this pattern: Czech archaeologists are now exploring GULAG ruins in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, research that tells a great deal not only about the Stalin prison camp system in those republics but also about what it was like in the RSFSR and elsewhere (gulag.cz/cs/novinka/zapomenuty-gulag-serie-debat-predstavi-nase-letosni-expedice-do-kazachstanu-a-uzbekistanu).

            (For a discussion of what the Czechs have been doing and why it matters both for Central Asia and more generally, see Aleksandra Vagner’s article on the Radio Liberty portal at svoboda.org/a/v-rossii-takoe-issledovanie-nevozmozhno-cheshskie-arheologi-izuchayut-steplag/33883930.html.)

            As Putin shuts down genuine research on the Stalin era, such efforts by foreign scholars and the governments of the now-independent former Soviet republics are increasingly important and should be followed by those whose concerns focus on what happened in the Russian Federation where most of the Stalin camps were located.

HIV has Reached ‘Epidemic Proportions’ in a Third of Russia’s Federal Subjects, Experts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 25 – HIV infections have reached “epidemic proportions” in 27 of Russia’s federal subjects, with transmissions increasingly occurring through heterosexual contacts and the failure of medical facilities to prevent the spread.  As a result, as many as three percent of Russian men in their 40s are infected and one percent of pregnant women.

            Those are just some of the dire reports of Russian experts surveyed by Mikhail Sergeyev, who monitors economic developments for Nezavisimaya Gazeta, reports that suggest that while mortality rates from HIV have fallen there in recent years, that may not continue if the rate of the spread of HIV increases  (ng.ru/economics/2026-10-25/1_9610_hiv.html).

            One reason for pessimism is that many who are infected do now know that, and “only half of the people living with HIV” are getting anti-retroviral treatments, experts say. That low coverage means that “at least 600,000 HIV sources continue to actively participate in the transmission of the virus,” they continue.

            According to the World Health Organization, controlling the spread of HIV requires that countries achieve what is known as the 95-95-95 benchmark, with 95 percent of those infected knowing their status, 95 percent receiving ART treatment, and 95 percent of those achieving viral suppression. At present, Russia is not close to any of those figures.

            Russian medical officials say that “two thirds of the new HIV transmissions in Russia are the result of heterosexual contact” rather than drug abuse or homosexual activity;” and they note that hospitals and other medical institutions “are one again becoming channels of transmission of the virus.”

            Moscow has lifted restrictions on ART medications, but the problem of a lack of the availability of such drugs is still so great that the hardest hit regions are now trying to fill in the gap, although they rarely are able to do so not only because of the high cost of such drugs but also because of their lack of funds for such things. 

Almost 40 Percent of Russians Now have Relative who has Served in Ukraine, Survey Data Show

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 25 – It is a commonplace now to say that Ukraine’s drone attacks have brought Putin’s war in Ukraine home to Russians; but in fact, given the rotation of men through the Russian invasion force, it is now the case that 37 percent of the Russian people have a relative who has served there, Elena Konyeva of Extreme Scan says polls show.

            Given that even in the cases of families without such a veteran of the war in Ukraine, the likelihood is increasingly great that they too know someone who fought and perhaps died in that conflict and thus the war has come home to Russia in this most affecting way, the director of ExtremeScan says (re-russia.net/expertise/0465/).

            The share of Russians reporting that they or their relatives have served in Ukraine has continued to rise in Extreme Scan surveys. In May 2022, only 15 percent said that was the case; in February 2023, 23 percent did; and in a more recent survey, 38 percent did, with an increasing fraction reporting that they had more than one relative who was a veteran.

            Konyeva says that the experience of having a relative serve in Ukraine has made those with it more ready to discuss the war, in some cases making them more supportive of continuing to fight until some kind of Russian victory is won but in far more leading them to declare that they would like to see the war over.

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Other Post-Soviet States Now Taking Part in ‘Large Game of the Middle Powers’ Canadian PM Mark Carney Talked About

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 24 – At the World Economic Forum in Davos last January, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that the former international order is being restructured and that “mid-level powers have an historic opportunity to pool resources, create coalitions and take part in the formation of new global rules.”

            Among the countries taking part in that effort, according to a commentary on the Cronos.Asia portal, two post-Soviet states are especially prominent, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, a development that deserves more attention than it has received so far because it affects many places and not just their neighbors (cronos.asia/news/kazahstan-vhodit-v-bolshuyu-igru-srednih-derzhav/).

            Kazakhstan’s Kasym-Jomart Tokayev and Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev have both entered this new game, and it is time for those who analyze their regions to recognize that what is happening is a about more than just what they and other leaders in the former Soviet space had been about but rather about changing the international order as such. 

            The Cronos.Asia portal focuses on Kazakhstan’s activities but includes some involving Azerbaijan as such to make the point that the new world that is emerging needs a new optic rather than continuing to be interpreted as if the world had not changed in the direction Carney points to. 

Founder of Radical Russian Nationalist ‘Northern Man’ Group Dies

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 25 – Mikhail Mavashi, founder and current leader of the radical Russian nationalist Northern Man organization, has died at 41 in what is being reported as an automobile accident, an event that his followers are warning no one should try to exploit against the group (echofm.online/news/umer-reper-i-osnovatel-naczionalisticheskogo-dvizheniya-severnyj-chelovek-misha-mavashi ).

            The rapper who set up Northern Man in 2022 to support Putin’s expanded invasion of Ukraine, promote Slavic unity, oppose immigration, and impose a restrictive vision of Russian traditions openly called for and organized violence to achieve his goals (ukranews.com/en/news/1183274-rapper-misha-mavashi-who-supported-war-against-ukraine-and-was-sentenced-in-absentia-dies-in-russia).

            Many observers have suggested that Mavashi’s Northern Man group might attract many Russian veterans returning from Ukraine and even become a threat to social and political stability in Russia. His followers’ threat to counter any attempts to exploit his passing indicates that such fears are not trivial.

            (For discussions of those possibilities, see meduza.io/feature/2025/09/12/molodye-v-pravilnoy-odezhde and jamestown.org/returning-veterans-powering-rise-of-radical-russian-nationalist-northern-man-group/).

            While the regional organizations of the Northern Man group appear relatively strong, the death of Mavashi leaves the group without an obvious successor to head such an all-Russian radical nationalist movement, a lack that means the more state-oriented Russian Community have play a larger role with veterans, one less threatening to the Kremlin.

            (On the Russian Community and its relations with Mavashi’s Northern Man group, see jamestown.org/returning-veterans-powering-rise-of-radical-russian-nationalist-northern-man-group/ and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2026/09/representatives-of-extreme-russian.html,)

Russia Unlikely to Give Up Imperial Ambitions Anytime Soon Because These Do Not Rest on Soviet Nostalgia Alone, Kazakh Analyst Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 23 – Kazakhstan should not expect any rapid change in Russia’s imperial ambitions because they are based “not only on nostalgia for the Soviet Union but also in a desire to preserve the idea of Russia as a power with special rights regarding the territories of its neighbors,” Askar Nursha says.

            The Kazakh political analyst, who is dean of the ALMA University School of Public Policy and Law and author of the 2018 book, Putin’s Russia: Geopolitical Revenge or Aggressive Defense, makes this point in an interview with Altyn-Orda (altyn-orda.kz/rossiya-ne-otkazalas-ot-imperskih-ambitsij-politolog-obyasnil-kakie-riski-eto-sozdayot-dlya-kazahstana/).

            Those who expect Russia to give up these ambitions anytime soon are going to be disappointed because that will take not just the passing of a generation that remembers the USSR but the complete transformation of Russian self-identificaiton as a special state with special rights regarding its neighbors.

            Those neighbors, including Kazakhstan, must recognize this reality even as they are compelled to deal with Russia as a neighbor in pragmatic ways. That may sometimes require unwelcome compromises but these are likely to be necessary to prevent even more tragic consequences.