Adenauer’s Opposition to a United Germany in the 1920s Should be Recalled by Both Those Denounced as Wanting to Dismember Russia and Those Doing Such Denunciations, Eidman Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 14 – It is often forgotten that in the 1920s, Germany was divided between those who favored breaking it up into a number of separate states and those who favored a united and indivisible Russia. Konrad Adenauer, the mayor of Cologne and later chancellor of West Germany, was one of the former; Hitler, one of the latter.

            In a comment on his telegram channel, Igor Eidman says that had Adenauer succeeded in his plan for a separate Rhenist Republic, the world would have been spared the horrors of Nazism and the tragedy of World War II (t.me/igoreidman/3116 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/raschlenitel-adenauer-ili-raspad-kak-spasenie).

            That is because had those like Adenauer won out, something that did not happen because they were accused by many Germans, including the Nazis, for seeking to “dismember” Germany, “Hitler simply would not have had a unified Germany he could seize power and World War II in all likelihood would never have occurred.”

            After that conflict, Eidman continues, Adenauer “operated within the framework of the Allied decision to create a unified Western Germany,” but “he did so reluctantly and did not favor a rapid reunification with East Germany, a territory that notably included the greater part of historical Prussia,” fearing that such a combination would be militarist and imperialist.

            “By the time Germany reunified under Kohl, that threat no longer existed: the country had traveled a long path from imperial militarism and systemic nationalism to a stable democracy.”  And Adenauer,  denounced in the 1920s as a “dismemberer of Germany” is now a hero while his opponents then are “reviled as Nazi collaborators.”

            Russians today should remember this history because “present-day Russia, much like Germany in the first half of the 20^th century poses an existential threat to the outside world and to itself,” Eidman says, “The collapse of its empire is inevitable;” and the sooner it happens, the better and safer it will be for the world, for Europe, and for Russians as well.”

            Both those Russians now being denounced as dismemberers of Russia and those other Russians engaging in such denunciations need to remember that, Eidman suggests, as do others who may think that this conflict has nothing to do with them and thus they should favor temporary stability above all else.   

Over Last 30 Years, Caspian Sea has Declined in Size by an Area the Size of Sicily and People around It are Getting Sick, ‘Kedr’ Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 14 – In the course of the last three decades, the Caspian Sea has declined in size by an area the size of Sicily and is projected to lose roughly a third of its current surface area by the end of this century, something with consequences all too like those which preceded the death of the Aral Sea in Central Asia.

            Many ports are now far from the coast, and many ships that had plied the waters of the Caspian are now rusting away far from water, the Kedr portal says. But most seriously, experts say, this retreat in the shoreline of that sea just as was the case with the Aral is having a negative impact on the health of the people around it (kedr.media/stories/cherty-umirayushhego-morya/).

            That is because various mineral and biological deposits that had been safely under water are now exposed and being spread into populated areas by the winds, a development that is likely to lead to a sharp increase in diseases like cancer just as has been the case with the death of the Aral Sea and the health of the people of Karakalpakstan in particular.

            Unfortunately, despite these dangers, the littoral states have been unable to reach agreement on what to do. Indeed, they are still divided between those, mostly in Russia, who think that the sea will make a comeback and that there is no need for expensive new programs; and those in the other littoral states who are convinced that is delusional.

            If that deadlock is not resolved and soon, something that at the moment seems extremely improbable, then the Caspian is on course to follow the Aral into oblivion, with the economic situation and health of the populations of the littoral states certain to suffer in significant ways in the coming years. 

Even Governors Imposed by Moscow Now Being Compelled to Choose Echo of Parade of Sovereignties to Forestall Unrest, Rybakova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 14 – Given the restrictions various federal subject governments are imposing on the sale of gasoline, ever more commentators are drawing parallels with the parade of sovereignties in the late 1980s and early 1990s when regions introduced similar restrictions and their own currencies and even border posts.

            Most doubt that things can go as far this time around given that the center is far stronger than it was and the governors are not popularly elected with local support but selected and imposed by the Kremlin, but Tatyana Rybakova argues those differences may not be sufficient to block a new parade of sovereignties (nemoskva.net/2026/07/14/regiony-ogorazhivayutsya/).

            It is sometimes forgotten, the NeMoskva commentator says, that the original parade of sovereignties reflected not just the desire for freedom but also to prevent a social explosion that many feared would occur because of food shortages and the declining ability of Moscow to control the situation.

            At that time, Rybakova continues, “the central government was young, democratic and shaky;” and “the heads of the regions were much stronger politically,” elected rather than appointed and thus more ready to take action in defense of their voters than in support of Moscow.

            Today, the situation is different. Moscow is stronger and governors weaker; and many assume that because that is so, no new parade of sovereignties based on gas shortages rather than food shortages is possible, she says. But there are compelling reasons to think that such a conclusion may prove to be wrong.

            The governors are facing both their own budget deficits and unhappy populations, and while Moscow can send prosecutors, it is no longer in a position to send money or the kind of assistance that would calm the population, at least not without a wholesale transformation of Kremlin policy.

            As a result, even the most ostensibly loyal governors are beginning to speak out and try to defend their populations by the kind of steps that led to rise of the parade of sovereignties a generation ago.  In such a situation, Rybakova says, the governors are increasingly forced to choose “between popular revolt and Kremlin discontent.”

            And unless there are major changes in Moscow’s approach, she says, “it is only a question of time” until at least some governors will choose to try to forestall a revolt at home rather than to worry about a negative reaction from the Kremlin, all the more so because the center installed them to keep things quiet.

            The situation has now reached the point where Moscow’s inability or unwillingness to help the regional governments means that even the most loyal governors are driven by the logic of the situation to try to mollify the population, an effort that could trigger a new parade of sovereignties far more easily and quickly than many suspect. 

Russia’s Gas Shortage Not Only Boosting Inflation and Reducing Harvests But Also Limiting Road Repairs, ‘Moscow Times’ Reports

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 13 – The gas shortages Russians are facing because of Ukraine’s drone attacks on refineries are not only sparking anger directly but fears because they are also boosting inflation and reducing the ability of farmers to bring in harvests, something that may lead to declines in exports and even domestic shortages of food.

            But now they are facing yet another crisis, one that will affect Russians both directly and indirectly.  The fuel shortages are limiting the ability of firms to repair Russia’s roads this summer, The Moscow Times reports (ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/13/letnii-remont-dorog-v-rossii-okazalsya-pod-ugrozoi-sriva-iz-za-defitsita-dizelya-a200654).

            According to the paper, there is a great danger that this additional problem will metasticize into additional ones if road repair companies can’t get loans to buy more expensive bitumen and diesel fuel, noting that the National Association of Infrastructure Companies has called for the government to compensate these firms or face a difficult future.

            Hard-pressed by the ballooning costs of Putin’s war in Ukraine, the Russian government is unlikely to do so; and as a result, roads that no one is repairing will join all the other problems that the successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have achieved so far, sparking more anger among Russians and more difficulties for their rulers.

Moscow, Convinced ‘Violence is Main Way to Solve Any Problem,’ has Little Interest in Limiting It in the Home, Women’s Rights Lawyer Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 13 – During its current term, the Duma, at the insistence of the Russian Government, has rejected all six attempts to pass laws limiting violence in the family. Most analysts point to the Kremlin’s commitment to traditional values and the influence of the Russian Orthodox Church.

            But according to a lawyer who specializes on women’s issues, speaking to Horizontal Russia on condition of anonymity, the real reason is broader, deeper and even more disturbing: the regime doesn’t want to do anything that undermines its belief that ‘violence is the main way to solve problems” (semnasem.org/articles/2026/07/13/gde-zhenshinam-na-rusi-zhit-horosho).

            The lawyer argues that “it is important to understand that violence in the family, society and in the state is very connected.  If the state believes that violence is the main way to solve problems” – and that is clearly the case under Putin – “then we will not see any effective work of the authorities with domestic violence.”

After all, she continues, “for society to approve of interstate violence or violence of the state towards its citizens, it should generally be tolerant of violence. And if a person has grown up in a family where violence is unacceptable, he will naturally not be tolerant of any form. Therefore, it is not profitable for the state to create a culture of rejection of violence.”

Her words come at the end of a 7,000 word article summarizing research conducted by Horizontal Russia about the conditions of women across the Russian Federation and the attitudes of officials and the population to the situation women in that country find themselves in at the present time.

Among the key findings of this research are the following:

·       In regions where women are treated less well, they are 50 to 100 percent more likely to give birth as teenage girls, 50 to 150 percent less likely to graduate from at least nine years of school and die two to five years earlier than are those in the country as a whole. In regions where women are doing better, the reverse is true. 

·       Russian women in the worst regions are significantly  more likely to be victims of violent crime in general and sexualized violence in particular.

·       Differences in income explain some of these differences but far from all. In some regions with higher incomes, crime against women is higher than in others where women have lower incomes.

Kremlin and FSB Control of Senior Military Appointments Behind Failure of Russian Military in Ukraine, Focus Groups of Retired Officers Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 13 – Senior officers are now chosen not by their colleagues in the army but by the Kremlin and the FSB with the result being that those on top are selected because of their loyalty to the country’s leader rather than their professional competence. Not surprisingly, that has proved disastrous in the conduct of military operations.

            According to Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speech writer and now a Putin critic, that conclusion is offered by focus groups consisting of retired Russian army officers who are well familiar with the problem and want there to be changes (vot-tak.tv/94315382/armiya-i-kreml-gallyamov).

            Those who oppose Putin, the commentator says, need to support the de-politicization of military promotions, a step that would be good for the country and popular with the military, Gallyamov says. Otherwise, the Russian army will continue to do poorly and eventually there will be yet another Prigozhin mutiny, perhaps one that will be more successful than the first.  

             Gallyamov does not provide any details about who organized these focus groups, who took part, and when they occurred. But the attitudes he reports are entirely plausible given the Russian military's traditional anger at having the politicians override the professionals when it comes to appointing senior commanders and giving orders.  

Putin Right to Call for the Russian People to Endure Ukrainian Drone Attacks but Dangerously Wrong to Act as if Elites Don’t Have To, Pastukhov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 12 – Putin and his regime are “completely correct” in calling for Russians to show patience in enduring the current wave of Ukrainian drone attacks, Vladimir Pastukhov says; but he and his colleagues are dangerously wrong to then act as if that appeal doesn’t apply to them.

            Russian elites are able to get gasoline when others cannot and to avoid sending their sons to fight in Ukraine when the offspring of others are not able to do the same, the London-based Russian analyst says (t.me/v_pastukhov/1952 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/poterpet-oni-predlagayut-drugim-a-ne-sebe).

            During World War II, members of the elite, including Stalin’s own children, fought in the war and all suffered from the shortages and risks; but now, the Putin regime is calling on Russians as a whole to suffer but not showing any willingness for its own members to do the same, Pastukhov says.

            That pattern risks triggering “a sense of class hatred,” with those being encouraged to endure saying that those doing the encouraging aren’t willing to endure the same things.  This all started, of course, a decade ago when Russians were told “there is no money but you need to hold on.” Now the situation is far worse because it is far more obvious.