Russian Nationalities Agency Collects Enormous Range of Data on Ethnic and Religious Relations and Passes It to FSB and Law Enforcement, New ‘Arctida’ Study Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 29 – Compared to siloviki agencies, the Federal Agency for Nationality Affairs (FADN) attracts remarkably little attention, but it plays a key role in the work of the FSB and Russian law enforcement agencies by gathering and then passing along data from its countrywide monitoring system of ethnic and religious relations, a new Arctida study says.

            The FADN monitoring system tracks online content, news coverage, and social media posts, and the agency want to expand this to include messaging aps, Arctida says.  Most commentaries on this suggest that what the FADN monitoring system is for is helping formulate policy rather than bringing charges (arctida.io/en/projects/russias-peoples).

              But in fact, a major part of the FADN’s monitoring is devoted to identifying those who may be in violation of the law, something that should not surprise anyone because most of the senior FADN officials involved are either FSB officers, married to them, or served in the FSB earlier.

              Having these FSB links has given FADN a certain amount of defense against those who would transfer the monitoring function to the FSB’s second department; but there are signs that the FSB’s patience may be running thin and that FADN will lose this function, one that dominates much of its activity. In that event, its overall role will be reduced.

              But the Kremlin may prefer that FADN keep this monitoring service because there will be less sensitivity in some groups if a nominally apolitical group is doing it, even if it is immediately handing over any information it does collect to the FSB and law enforcement bodies.

Development of Siberia between the Yenesei and Lena Wouldn't Benefit Moscow or Investors Foreign or Domestic, Verkhoturov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 27 – Many like to talk about “Siberianization” and “the mastering of Siberia,” Dmitry Verkhoturov says; but most do so without considering the real costs involved in doing so and thus overstate what one or another project will cost and what it will bring in return.

            To compensate for the overly optimistic projections of such people, the Siberian economist says, it is worth considering the development of just one portion of Siberia, the lands between the Yenisei and Lena rivers, the site ofc enormous natural wealth and almost no infrastructure (sibmix.com/?doc=23297).

            If one calculates the costs involved of developing the resources and then transporting them out for foreign sale, one can easily see, Verkhoturov says, that “under prevailing conditions,” development of that region “will not benefit investors either domestic who are currently suffering under huge debts and losses or foreign ones either.    

            There are indeed enormous deposits of natural resources in that region, he continues, including potash salts, iron, copper, coal and other minerals as well. But for these to be economically viable, mines must developed with populations brought in and housed to support them and transportation infrastructure created where none now exists.

            The transportation infrastructure that will have to be built includes the construction of a railway and connecting roads (about 4.8 trillion rubles), a pipeline costing 1.6 trillion ruble with annual operating costs only adding to those totals. Building mining and population infrastructure will require another 5.6 trillion rubles.

            Moreover, Verkhoturov says, those estimates are likely low given the extreme conditions of the Evenk region; and so assessments of cost must begin at 15 trillion rubles and will likely to much higher, and the maintenance of both the mine, human and transportation infrastructure will add trillions more.

            Assuming price stability, lack of sales restrictions, and low inflation, Verkhoturov says, the mining industry from that region would be about 900 billion rubles a year, leading the paying off of the investment cost in 16.6 years. But if prices fall as China is pressing to take place, it would take 46.8 years for the project to recover investment costs.

            The problems these costs imposed are exacerbated by the difficulties of finding the necessary capital. If Moscow borrowed the 15 trillion, it would have to pay three billion a year in interest alone, something that by itself would make the project anything but profitable for the foreseeable future.s

            Foreign investors would like face similar challenges and thus would make demands for the kind of side payments that would make such a development even more unprofitable, the Siberian economist says, adding that what he has described for one region of Siberia would be multiplied many times for the entire space to be developed. 

At a Time of Crisis, Estonians Again Turning Ever More Often to Their Distant Roots, Prozes Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 27 – Estonians are showing an ever greater interest in the Finno-Ugric roots of their culture as they seek to reaffirm the uniqueness of their identity at a time of growing international crisis, according to Jaak Prozes of the Fenno-Ugric movement in that Baltic country says.

            “Without the native Finno-Ugric context,” he says, “the history of Estonia would look like a simple borrowing from the Baltic Germans, the Swedes and the Russians,” but “the ancient linguistic community gives the culture of Estonians a true identity” (kultuur.postimees.ee/8571021/kultuurimaja-pikk-kriisiaeg-on-pannud-eestlasi-oma-soome-ugri-identiteedist-enam-tuge-otsima and mariuver.eu/2026/10/26/krizis-vernul-estoncev-k-finno-ugorskim-istokam/).

            Other Estonians say that the turn to the Finno-Ugric world happened a half century ago and played a major role in the drive to the recovery of independence; but with independence, attention to those roots weakened. Now, however, it is strengthening again because of uncertainties in the world.

            This trend of interest in the distant past is found throughout the former Soviet space, with Russians looking back to Rus, Kazakhs to the Golden Horde, and others to historically distant but psychologically close communities from which they sprung and that continue to give them meaning.

              Thus, the Estonian case is not unique except in its details but rather a reflection of a broader and deeper trend that is likely to become more rather than less important as the world crisis of today deepens.

Kazakhs Now Posting in Facebook More Often in Kazakh rather than Russian, Studies Find

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 26 – Kazakhs are increasingly likely to use their national language rather than Russian when they go online, and now are posting in Kazakh more often than in Russian on one platform (Facebook) even though Russian is the more widely used language on others, according to new studies.

            What that means is that Kazakhs are increasingly using their national language even in a sector that had long been assumed to be most immune to the transition away from Russian (tribune.kz/v-almaty-proshla-brand-analytics-conference-kazakhstan-2026/ and altyn-orda.kz/kazahskij-yazyk-oboshyol-russkij-v-odnoj-iz-sotssetej-kazahstana-chto-pokazali-tsifry/).

            At a recent conference of researchers on Kazakh internet habits, Brand Analytics reported that as of this summer, 41.4 percent of all posts on Facebook in Kazakhstan were in Kazakh, slightly more than the 39.2 percent that were in Russian. On almost all other platforms, Russian still dominated although its share of posts continues to decline.

            One major exception, the media research center said, involved Telegram posts. There, Kazakh has not gained relative to Russian. Instead, in recent months, the number of reports in Kazakh and the quantity of writers has declined approximately by a third, a sign Kazakhs may no longer be using this channel as much or choose to use Russian to reach a broader audience.

            Because so many factors are involved in changes in the use of Kazakh as opposed to Russian, individual figures need to be examined with care, the researchers say; but the overall trend is clear: Kazakhs are increasingly inclined to use their national language on almost all online platforms, yet another indication of the growing power of Kazakh.

Azerbaijan’s Villages are Dying, Threatening Country’s Future Even Before Oil Runs Out, Mejlis Deputies Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 27 – Even though Baku officials insist that villagers form almost half of Azerbaijan’s population, the real situation is much worse with villages emptying out as residents leave for Baku to earn a living, even if they continue to be counted by the government as villagers, deputies in the country’s parliament say.

            The impact of the influx of villagers on Baku is obvious to everyone, Mejlis deputies say; but the consequences of the dying out of villages for the country is less so even though this negative trend is intensifying and threatening the ability of the country to feed itself (minval.az/news/124559785).

            The government says there are 4246 villages in the country, but in 129 of them, fewer than 50 people actually live, and in 20 to 30, the villages are now ghost towns because no one lives there. Young people have left and the older generation is dying out. If nothing is done, deputies, say, the country will face “the extinction of villages.”

            The emptying out of rural areas is a problem that many countries including those in the former Soviet space face, but it is a particular one where investment in agriculture lags and where a reduction in the population means a reduction in agricultural production and consequently higher prices and greater dependence on imports results.

            Azerbaijan is only beginning to focus on this issue as part of discussions about life in Azerbaijan “after oil,” the situation the country will face in three decades of so; but deputies are now saying that unless the problems of declining villages are faced, the crisis for Baku may occur far sooner than that. 

Ecumenical Patriarchate Assures Uniates He Prays for a Ukrainian Victory

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 26 – During a visit to Rome where he met both the Pope and Stanislav Shevchuk,the head of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church,  Patriarch Bartholemew of Constantinpole assured the Uniate leader that he prays regularly for a Ukrainian victory against Russian aggression.

            Not surprisingly, Russian outlets are outraged not so much because the Ecumenical patriarch is praying for the side he favors much as the Moscow patriarch is doing the same for his but rather because Bartholemew has ranked the defense of Catholics Greek and otherwise above the defense of Orthodox (rusk.ru/newsdata.php?idar=122417).

            Such arguments show just how deeply divided eastern and western Christianity remain at least in the Russian understanding and thus how much deeper the divide between Moscow and the West really is, one that reflects not just the last few centuries but a millenium that will take a long time to overcome whatever the politics of the moment in the future may be.

Sakha Should Follow Baltic Model to Independence and Membership in EU and NATO, Former Deputy Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Oct. 26 – Many Russians and some non-Russians argue that numerically small peoples like the Sakha should not pursue independence because it will prove a poisoned chalice with one kind of oppression replacing another, but that is not necessary as the Baltic drive to recover independence shows, Aleksandr Ivanov says.

            The former Sakha Il Tumen regional parliamentarian who was stripped of his position after being declared “a foreign agent” says that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania show a different and better way forward (themoscowtimes.com/2026/10/26/dictatorship-isnt-destiny-for-russias-indigenous-peoples-they-can-build-independent-democracies-a94088).

            “The three Baltic states started in 1991 with the same Soviet legacy” as the people of Sakha, Ivanov says, “a devastated economy, Russification, nomenklatura officials and an absence of market institutions. Over 30 years, they became democracies and members of the European Union and NATO.”

            Estonia had few people “with almost no natural resources” but quickly “build one of the world’s most digital states … gave the world Skype … and what in what is particularly important” to him, the Sakha politician says, “restored its language’s status as the state language after decades of russification, precisely what we are fighting for today.”        

 “We in Sakha have a vast territory and enormous mineral wealth: the republic produces most of Russia’s diamonds, as well as gold, coal, gas and rare earth metals.” Now, “imagine Estonian institutions — transparent government, high-quality education and digital governance — combined with the resources that now flow to Moscow.”

“Of course,” Ivanov continues, “resources alone guarantee nothing. They can be used for good or for harm. That is precisely why we need to learn from those who have managed to build a strong, free and educated society without gas or diamonds. [And]We have much to learn from Estonia and its Baltic neighbors.”

“We can no longer trust new agreements with the colonial power sitting in Moscow. Every time the beast grew weak, it persuaded us to stay and promised to treat us well. Every time, it deceived us. It is time to break free of our Stockholm syndrome and look with clear eyes.”

And he concludes with optimism: “My people — like the Tatars, Bashkirs, Buryats, Altaians, Erzya and others — are ready to live of their own free will and develop their independent, multiethnic republics themselves, free of Moscow’s chauvinism, xenophobia and imperialism.”