Paul Goble
Staunton, April 15 – Not surprisingly,
most observers in Russia and around the world are focusing on the impact the
defeat of Orban’s party in the recent Hungarian elections on EU support for
Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, but for senior members of
Putin’s United Russia, there may be an even greater threat, Sergey Aksyonov
says.
The Moscow analyst cites the words
of Anatoly Shariy, a Russian speaking Ukrainian blogger, who points out that
Orban’s defeat was the product of “a series of errors that bear a striking
resemblance to the well-known blunders committed by Ukraine’s former ruling
party in the run-up to the 2014 Maidan protests (svpressa.ru/politic/article/511113/).
Shariy “draws a direct comparison between
the two ‘Victors’ – Orban and Yanukovich – pointing to various parallels not
only in the politicians’ physical stature but also in their political profiles.”
Indeed, he says, "Fidesz today is essentially the 'Party of Regions'
all over again,” with corrupt officials having entrenched themselves and feeling
they needn’t answer to the people.”
The
Ukrainian blogger continues: “people who previously voted for Orbán’s party are
now voting against it; they can no longer tolerate the local bosses who have
become entrenched in power and, as a form of protest, are backing its opponent”
justifying this by arguing that Magyar’s affiliation with the Tisza Party is “merely
nominal.”
That
Magyar’s party has now won a constitutional majority reflects not only this
popular anger but “the specific features of the electoral system, features
Orban introduced to serve his ruling Fides Party” but which now as the election
has showed have led to his party’s defeat and his own.
Aksyonov points out that this “majoritarian
system plays a pivotal role in Hungarian politics. Of the 199 members of
parliament, more than half—106, to be precise—are elected in single-member
constituencies; and any votes cast for a winning candidate in excess of the
minimum required threshold are not discarded, but added to the party list
voting.”
“This mechanism grants a massive
bonus to the leading party,” he continues, “enabling it to attain a
constitutional majority (two-thirds of the seats) even without enjoying a
commensurate level of support among the general population.” Hungary stands out
in this regard as most European countries do not arrange things in this way or
change electoral district boundaries as often.
As Shariy and Aksyonov point out,
Russia also employs the manipulation of district boundaries, albeit using a
different method. It utilizes the "petal principle," whereby a major
city is carved up into sectors and segments, and each of these parts is then
attached to a vast, neighboring rural district—an area where loyalty to the
authorities is traditionally higher and opposition votes are effectively
diluted.”
“As for the electoral system itself, in the Russian Federation, it
represents a hybrid model: votes cast for losing candidates in single-member
districts are effectively wasted—they do not serve to boost the winners, as
they do in Hungary, nor do they serve to offset the results of the majoritarian
districts, as is the case in most other European countries.”
As a result, the analyst says, “this "Orban-style" electoral
system [in Russia] bolstered and ‘fine-tuned’ by domestic ‘inventors’ within
the Central Election Commission, and capped off with a dome of additional
filters and options are designed to provide a one-hundred-percent guarantee of
the desired outcome—yet another victory for the ruling party this September.”
“But what if this multilayered construct—designed to dispel any doubts
regarding United Russia’s success—were to yield a completely different, indeed
diametrically opposite, result, given a political reality that has shifted
radically—turning precisely on its head” as has just happened in Hungary and
happened earlier in Ukraine?”
In that event, the long-entrenched United Russia “princelings” “could welll
be soundly defeated—just as the Hungarians routed the ossified
"Orbanites." Everything the Presidential Administration,” Aksyonov
says, “has spent years building to prop up the ruling party would then turn
against it.”
And this could have revolutionary
consequences, he says, even if Moscow falsifies the results to ensure a Putin
victory. If it is too obvious, then these United Russian princelings and the
system they serve and that serves them could suffer a defeat even greater than
outright defeat. After all, that is what happened in Ukraine just over a decade
ago.