If Northern Caspian Disappears, Russia will Lose Its Caspian Flotilla and Much Else Besides, Mammadov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 20 – The northern segment of the Caspian is historically and geologically much shallower than the southern part, Rauf Mammadov says; and if as some environmental experts suggest the northern part will disappear and the southern silt up in the coming decades, Russia will lose a lot, beginning with its Caspian Flotilla and the bases that force uses.

            The Azerbaijani environmental expert who now works in Europe and the US says that such predictions about the future of the Caspian sea may be hyperbolic; but they call into question the insistence of Russian experts that Moscow should keep the water of the Volga rather than allow it to help keep the Caspian alive (caliber.az/post/ischeznet-li-kaspij).

            “If the five Caspian littoral states wish to preserve the Caspian Sea, they must act in concert, he says, suggesting that “this is especially true for Russia, given that the Volga River accounts for 85% of the water flowing into the Caspian." Unfortunately, many Russian officials and analysts say that Moscow can ignore the interests of the other states.

            It is true that Russia may benefit in the short term by taking more water out of the Volga and thus putting the Caspian at ever greater risk, the Azerbaijani environmental expert says; but over all, the shrinking of the Caspian will have a series of negative consequences no Russia should want to see happen.

            Falling water levels of the Caspian, Mammadov says, “will lead to a sharp decline in Russia’s maritime trade with other Caspian nations, potentially leading to the collapse of the Russian merchant fleet” and beyond any question harming the Russian fishing industry on that body of water.

            Moreover, he continues, the drying up of the Caspian will have “severe environmental implications for “the entire south of Russia,” with areas “as far as Voronezh and Volgograd and perhaps even further experiencing significantly higher temperatures” and an infestation of pests.

            In addition, Mammadov says, there will be the impact of sandstorms arising from the dried-up former seabed as well as the ecological and economic degradation affection entire coastal regions and cities, including Astrakhan, Kalmykia, Makhachkala, Derbent and all of Dagestan.”

            And at the same time, he points out, “Russia’s traditional Caspian Flotilla bases would disappear; building new ones would be costly, and there would simply be no suitable locations left for them.” Together with the other changes, “ Southern Russia would also suffer the consequences of internal migration.”

Moscow Patriarchate Asks Faithful to Pray for Defense of Russian-Occupied Crimea and for Protecting Russia against Internal Conflicts

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 18 – Reflecting the concern of many in Moscow over Ukraine’s recent military successes, the Moscow Patriarchate of the Russian Orthodox Church has asked its parishioners to pray for Russians defending occupied Crimea from “visible and invisible adversaries.”

            The prayer asks that the Mother of God ensure “an Orthodox presence in Crimea’ and grant “victory from heaven” and goes on to ask St. Fyodor Ushakov, identified in the prayer as the patron saint of the Russian navy and Sevastopol to intercede to ensure Russian control of the Ukrainian peninsula (ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/18/pobedi-navidimiya-inevidimiya-supostati-daruyai-sinod-rpts-utverdil-molitvu-vzaschitu-krima-a201174).

            The new prayer, approved at the latest meeting of the church’s Holy Synod, continues with a request for divine intervention to help the Russian military “in its defense of the Fatherland” and heavenly assistance to ensure that Russia itself will be “shielded from the invasion of foreign foes and internecine strife.”

            Such a prayer is likely intended to mobilize Russians in support of the war; but it is certain to raise concerns among Russians about just how serious the problems Moscow now faces in prosecuting the Putin’s war in Ukraine and even how much at risk Russia itself is because of its invasion of Ukraine.

            As a result, the Kremlin is certain to be anything but thrilled but this latest Patriarchal effort to show its loyalty, one that may backfire and reduce the loyalty of Russians to the author of this war and its illegal occupation of Ukraine’s Crimea and his policies in their own country that are already losing support.

Russia’s Regional Media Largely Continue to Operate Below Moscow’s Radar Screen, Kharatyan Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 18 – Most media outlets still open in the Russian capital operate under the close supervision of the Russian authorities, but those at the regional level in many cases continue to operate below Moscow’s radar screen largely because they do not make attempts to “independently cover” federal issues, Kirill Kharatyan says.

            “By focusing on local issues,” the media specialist at The Moscow Times says, “they aim to earn the trust of readers and satisfy the demand for objective local information, a need central publications by definition cannot meet” (ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/18/media-v-emigratsii-i-v-rossii-adaptatsiya-k-realnosti-vo-vremya-voini-a201173).

            Such media, he continues, “often function without registering as a legal entity or obtaining a formal media license. Frequently, they do not even register their telegram channels with the Moscow authorities. In this way, they strive to attract as little attention as possible from federal officials and politicians.

            In addition, these “outlets often enjoy the support of a loya and active readership that contributes in various ways, including financially;” and they often are provided with leads by readers. Their relationships with local elites are “unique.” Some regional elites are even supportive because they see such media as useful to themselves.

            But what is critical is that “most regional and local authorities turn a blind eye to the activities of regional media.” Whether this will continue is very much an open question; but as of now, regional outlets do provide the kind of news most central ones don’t, including on occasion coverage of issues that Moscow doesn’t allow Moscow outlets to produce. 

Baku Shipyard with Tools from the West Building Ships for Itself, its Caspian Littoral Neighbors and Foreign Customers Further Away

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 19 – The Baku Shipyard is transforming trade and security on the Caspian basin and helping Azerbaijan to become a major supplier of ships of all kinds to a wide variety of countries, leading Caliber journalist to describe what is is doing as “the birth of an iron colossus.”

            Timur Rzayev, says the shipyard has achieved its current prominence with equipment from Finland, the Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic, the UK, South Korea and Singapore and with orders from the region and  more generally (caliber.az/post/rozhdenie-zheleznogo-kolossa-tak-sozdaetsya-morskaya-mosh-azerbajdzhana).

            Many of the ships the yard has produced are in support of the Middle Corridor, a transport route “connecting China and Europe,” bypassing Russia and “passing through Azerbaijan whose importance as a transportation hub is increasing “every day,” the Caliber journalist says.

            But what is especially important is that the development of the Baku yards marks an important transition for a country that had been part of the Russian empire: it is not only charting its own way but now producing the equipment it needs to do so, rather than relying on supplies from the former imperial state. 

Notorious ‘Black Marias’ of Soviet Times are Returning to Russia's Streets at Government Order

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 16 – In Soviet times, prisoners were collected and transported in unmarked black vehicles that came to be known as “Black Marias.” Now, at the order of the Russian government, such vehicles are returning, albeit with the one difference that they must have a reference to the FSB or its border service painted on them.

            “During the Great Terror, NKVD officers used such so-called ‘Black Marias’ to pick up those targeted for repression,” The Barents Observer notes. Now, they are back, a small but frightening aspect of Russia’s return under Putin to notorious Stalin-era practices (ru.thebarentsobserver.com/novosti/vozvrasenie-cernogo-voronka/454043).

            Such vehicles are likely to become ever more visible on the streets of Russian cities and towns because the FSB now has control of seven pre-trial detention centers, including Lefortovo in Moscow and Shpalerka in St. Petersburg and is increasingly involved in the detention, arrest and transport of migrants and others charged with various crimes.

Putin Excluding Individuals and Groups from Common Legal Sphere Much as Nazis Did, Shumanov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 18 – “Max Weber described the state as a structure possessing a monopoly on the legitimate use of force” but Putin’s Russia like in Nazi Germany, “the authorities have gone further: they are constructing a monopoly on the power to exclude individuals and groups from public life” and its legal protections, Ilya Shumanov says.

            The founder of the Arktida project, which defends the numerically small peoples of the Russian north, says Moscow has “established an extensive nomenclature of labels” – such as “undesirable organization” or “foreign agent” – stripping those assigned to these categories of access to the rights of others (sapere.online/ot-monopolii-na-nasilie-k-monopolii-na-isklyuchenie/).

            According to Shumanov, “the goal of these designations is not merely to punish, but to create a system of exclusion: once a person steps onto this ladder, they are gradually stripped of their rights until their continued presence in society becomes impossible.” And “each step up this ladder of escalation and exclusion strips away specific rights.”

            “A "foreign agent" is barred from teaching, running for office, monitoring elections, placing advertisements, writing books, or posting on social media without a mandatory disclaimer,” he says. Moreover, “for every status, there are protocols, corresponding registries, and rules governing both the maintenance of these lists and removal from them.

Shumanov continues: “Everything is strictly formalized to create an appearance of legality, even though there is very little actual legality in the actions of the Russian authorities. The law is inverted: instead of protecting human rights, it becomes a switch that turns off human or civil rights.”

A similar system existed in Nazi Germany. It was promoted by Carl Schmitt who argued that “the sovereign is the one who decided on ‘the state of exception’ – that is, the one with the power to create exceptions to the rules. The same logic is now evident in the Russian context where the state established this set of exceptions.”

This is very much the case with the ways in which Moscow deals with ethnic minorities, the activist says. “The state encourages their cultural diversity, viewing them as a kind of ethnographic subject; but when anyone talks about genuine political rights -- such as rights to land, self-determination, or environmental protection – these are denied.

In short, Shumanov says, “culture is permitted but political agency is not.”

According to him, “approximately 100 indigenous initiatives in Russia have been designated as terrorist or extremist” by the Russian state; and the state is increasingly “delegating the functions of state-sanctioned violence to proto-state or non-state actors,” like the Wagner PMC and the Russian Community.

“these groups serve as a buffer for the Russian state, ensuring that the fallout from acts of violence does not attach to the state itself or further undermine trust in institutions of power that are already compromised,” Shumanov suggests, as “the state can easily label a grassroots initiative ‘radical and disavow it as necessary.”

When hundreds of thousands of veterans return from Putin’s war in Ukraine, this trend will almost certainly increase and even lead to the possible creation of a veterans party that will aid the Kremlin in putting even more individuals and groups beyond the protection of the law. 

Disaster Ahead This Winter for Russian North, United Russia Deputies in Arkhangelsk Parliament Warn

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 17 – United Russia deputies in the Arkhangelsk parliament have appealed to Moscow to provide “emergency financial assistance” because they lack the funds to ensure that residents will be provided with heat this winter and note that fuel deliveries for northern settlements are already falling far behind because of budgetary stringencies.

            Not only does this highlight how Putin’s war in Ukraine and Western sanctions are having a deleterious effect on the Russian North, but it also strongly suggests that the most negative impact of the current gas shortage is ahead because critical deliveries won’t arrive (ru.thebarentsobserver.com/novosti/na-grani-cs-arhangelskaa-oblast-prosit-u-moskvy-dengi-ctoby-ne-zamerznut-zimoj-izza-sankcij/454130).

            For members of the ruling party to make such public appeals is unusual, and their actions almost certainly reflect fears among them that the population will vote against them for what is going on unless they can somehow distance themselves from Kremlin policies, a move with grave consequences for the Putin regime.

            Unless Moscow comes up with the money and soon, that means that the much-ballyhooed power vertical Putin has created may begin to show more and deeper cracks as deputies pay more attention to those who nominally elect them and less to those above who in fact have selected them.

            That both reflects and could intensify a growing regionalization of political life in the Russian Federation at least while the election campaign is going on, something that will simultaneously frighten Moscow and give encouragement to regionalist and ethno-national movements as well.