Putin Advisor Says Ukrainians on Course to Disappear as a Nation by End of This Century

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 6 – Anton Kobyakov, an advisor to Vladimir Putin, says that Ukraine has passed “the point of no return” as far as demography is concerned and will “die out” by the end of this century unless something changes dramatically, adding that in his view, “only Russia can save that country.”

            Kobaykov’s view, aired at the Eastern Economic Forum and one likely shared by the Russian president reflects demographic data that some Ukrainian scholars are now discussing (fondsk.ru/news/2026/09/06/ukraincy-mogut-vymeret-kak-dinozavry-dazhe-esli-voennyy-konflikt-prekratitsya).

            These experts have focused on the fact that the number of children entering first year of school has fallen dramatically, a trend Kyiv explains by the decline in birthrates as a result of the war and the move of many Ukrainian families abroad to escape the violence of the Russian invasion.

            Those reasons may explain much of the reason for the decline. Ukrainian economist Oleksiy Kushch says that the number of children entering first classes this year is 45 percent lower than was the case in the 2013/2014 school year and that the country’s overall fertility rate has fallen from 1.51 to 0.9 children per woman per lifetime.

            That figure is below the overall Russian Federation fertility rate of 1.3 and even below that of the rate in major Russian cities, which now stands at 1.0. And it is far below the replacement level that requires women of childbearing age to have approximately 2.2 children.

            But the Ukrainian figures set the stage for the appearance of progressively smaller cohorts of Ukrainian women of prime childbearing age who are also on course to have ever fewer children.  According to some Russian commentators, that would mean there would only be two to three million Ukrainians left by the end of this century.

            Such longterm demographic projections are notoriously inaccurate given that changes can and do take place over time. But these are especially worrisome not only because they highlight a major challenge Kyiv will have to face but also because they likely underscore decision making in the Kremlin about Ukraine. 

Putin Supports Plan to Man Air Defense in Regions with Those ‘Absolutely Unsuitable’ for Military Service

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 5 – At a meeting with five United Russia Duma candidates, Putin said he supports their proposal to man air defense facilities in the regions with men who because of physical or mental problems have been classified as “absolutely unsuitable” for service in the Russian army.

            Men in what is known as category “D” are not drafted and are not accepted for service even if they volunteer, but many of them want to serve their country, Putin was told; and the Russian president said he supports the idea (novayagazeta.ru/articles/2026/09/05/putin-odobril-ideiu-privlech-k-protivovozdushnoi-oborone-v-regionakh-dobrovoltsev-s-kategoriei-godnosti-d-absoliutno-ne-goden-k-sluzhbe-news).

            Putin’s backing reflects both his search for manpower to fill the rapidly thinning ranks of his invasion force in Ukraine and his desire to show the Russian people that he will do everything he can to limit or even end the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on targets in the Russian Federation.

            But if the president’s approval leads to the actual use of such men, some of them may be sufficiently disabled that they won’t be able to perform as required – or potentially that this will prove the thin edge of the wedge and some of them may be sent to fight in Ukraine once they have become soldiers for air defense.

In ‘Novaya Gazeta’ Case, Moscow Making the Transition from ‘Individual to Collective Repression,’ Kolezev Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 5 – Until recently, the Russian justice ministry had identified specific media outlets or journalists in compiling its list of foreign agents; but now, with the case of Novaya Gazeta, Dmitry Kolezev says, it is listing a large number of people under this stigma and thus moving from “individual to collective repression.”

            In listing Novaya Gazeta as a foreign agent, the Urals journalist who fled Russia in 2022 says, the ministry included a list of several dozen journalists who were not staffers of that publication but had published there (t.me/kolezev/17888 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/perehod-ot-individualnyh-repressij-k-kollektivnym).

            “Neither de facto nor de jure do these people have anything to do with the publication at the present time,” Kolezev says; but all of them and all at once are now labeled foreign agents at one and the same time and are thus required to identify themselves as such and suffer the restrictions such a label entails.

            According to the Russian journalist now in emigration, this represents “an episode of the transition from individual repression to collective, more massive: people are recorded as enemies already literally lists; and it isone that is likely to spread,” a development that will spread Putin’s repressions more broadlyt and quickly than before. 

Erdoğan’s Words about ‘Reclaiming Ajaria’ Set Off Alarm Bells in Georgia and Other Parts of Former Soviet Space

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 4 – On September 1, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that he believes that “Turkey will reclaim Adjara,” a 400,000-strong autonomous republic in southwestern Georgia adjoining Turkey whose residents are overwhelmingly ethnic Georgia but a third of whom are Muslims and speak a Turkish-influenced Georgia dialect.

            Despite the hopes of some in Turkey and Russia, the Ajars did not develop the kind of ethnic or regional identities that might have led them to challenge Tbilisi as the Abkhaza and Ossetians did after Georgia acquired independence 35 years ago (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/05/national-traitors-in-moscow-in-2004.html).

            But Turkish influence has been growing in recent years, with Turkish businessmen dominating the economy and visiting Turkish officials behaving as if they were already in power there, developments that have worried Georgians and also Turkic peoples on the former Soviet space concerned about Ankara’s intentions.

            According to one commentator, “the internet is full of articles about the "creeping annexation" of Adjara. But they are outdated. The annexation has effectively already happened. Real power in the region lies with Turkish businessmen and the Turkish clergy. And if things do not go according to plan, Turkish security officials will step in” (asia24.media/news/ankara-ne-sprashivaet-kak-tbilisi-molcha-teryaet-adzhariyu/).

            Such judgments will only further inflame the situation and may create a new problem for Georgia and for adjoining states in the south Caucasus, especially as it moves to become a major east-west transit bridge, with Turkey seeking to expand its role and other countries, Russia in the first instance using its influence to try to block that.

Ukraine Objects to How Crimea is Shown on New World Map UNGA has Overwhelmingly Approved

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 4 – The UN General Assembly has voted 164 to one against with six abstentions to urge all countries to stop using world maps based on the Mercator projection which has long been the international standard with the Equal Earth map which better shows the relative size of the countries and the regions of the world.

            As advocates of the change have pointed out, the Mercator projection shows Greenland as larger than South America and about the same size as Africa, whereas in fact, Africa is more than a dozen times larger than Greenland, a Danish island which is about the same size as the Democrative Republic of the Congo alone.

            Equally important for the backers of this change is the fact that the new map puts Oceania in the middle while the Mercator projection has the United Kingdom and by extension Europe at the center, a reflection of a geopolitics and population size that is increasingly at odds with reality.

            The US was the only country to vote against this African proposal, an action that has sparked much discussion and criticism; but the abstentions by Estonia, Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova, Ukraine and Serbia have not, even though in each case, this vote represented a principled position.

            Ukraine’s action, backed by Estonia, Lithuania and Moldova, is especially important. Kyiv objects to how the new map portrays Crimea. Instead of showing the peninsula as part of Ukraine, it portrays it in a different color from the one used for Ukraine -- but also different from the one used for Russia (https://echofm.online/news/na-novoj-karte-mira-oon-krym-otdelyon-ot-ukrainy).

            Unlike the United States, Ukraine and its supporters did not vote against the change in maps but used their right to abstain to protest about one aspect of the map few others apparently see as important overall but that is critically important to countries like Ukraine who face a Russia prepared to challenge existing international borders by force.

With Decision of European Court of Human Rights, Russians Lose Their Court of Last Resort – and Rights Activists Aren’t Pleased

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 3 – The European Court for Human Rights, a body that for many Russians was the court of last resort when they had exhausted their legal challenges in Russia, has said it will not take up the 879 cases by Russians about the violation of their rights by the Russian government.

            According to the court’s press release, all of the complaints it has now declined t hear were filed before September 16, 2022. That decision came in response to a Russian law banning the implementation of the court’s decisions coming into force in March of that year (rfi.fr/ru/россия/20260903-еспч-отказался-рассматривать-все-дела-россиян-которые-не-касаются-войн-в-украине-и-грузии).

            Now the ECHR has decided to stop considering such cases altogether if they concern domestic issues. It will however continue to take up cases against Russia related to wars in Georgia and Ukraine, which currently number approximately 5700 lawsuits, the press release stated.

            Among the issues of suits it will no longer hear are those involving the persecution of opposition figures, detentions at rallies, repressive legislation, restrictions on freedom of speech, prison conditions, immigration rights, freedom of movement, and the protection of personal data. For the time being, the ECHR will not hear such cases from Russians.

            Not surprisingly, Russian human rights activists are angry.  Maksim Olenichev of the First Department portal says that in his view, “this is a serious mistake, both legally and in terms of reputation … because these cases raise important issues in the context of modern Russia.” Others have said much the same.

            Anticipating such objections, the ECHR release said that it might be possible to reinstate such cases in the future “if circumstances change and conditions for the resumption of adversarial proceedings arise,” legalize for a shift in the Russian government’s position on enforcing ECHR decisions.

‘Horizontal Russia’ Lists Seven Steps Russian Voters Can Take to Limit Violations

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 4 – Noting that voting “is one of the few safe ways” for Russians to express their opinions about those in power and that rules governing elections have been violated in the past, the Horizontal Russia portal offers a list of seven steps Russian voters can take to limit such violations in the upcoming Duma elections.

            The eight, each of which is discussed in detail (semnasem.org/articles/2026/09/04/zashitit-svoj-golos), include:

1.     Vote in person at the polling place rather than online.

2.     Go the polls on the last day of voting rather than earlier.

3.     Ask for a new ballot if you make a mistake.

4.     Do not show your ballot to anyone once you have filled it in.

5.     Do not succumb to employer pressure as that is illegal.

6.     If you want to spoil your ballot, know in advance how to do it.

7.     Do not ignore violations at the polling place and know how to file complaints.

At a time when people in many countries are suspicious of how elections are carried out, it is intriguing to see that even in Russia, where violations by the authorities are typical and even expected, at least some people are trying to figure out how to act to make such violations harder and less common.