Paul Goble
Staunton,
Sept. 27 – Countries that consist of contiguous units are invariably concerned
about transit issues among them, and these concerns can ultimately trigger
efforts by their central governments or others to seize the territory between
their parts. That happened in Danzig in the middle of the 20th
century, an event which opened the way to World War II.
Now,
Vladimir Prokhvatilov, a pro-Kremlin Russian commentator says, the space
between Azerbaijan proper and its non-contiguous region, Nakchivan, a space the
Armenians call Syunik but the Azerbaijanis and Turks call Zengezur, is on the
way to becoming another such generator of conflict (vpoanalytics.com/2023/09/27/zangezurskij-koridor-stanet-dantsigskim/).
Having
successfully reintegrated Karabakh by force, Prokhvatilov says, “it cannot be
completely excluded that Azerbaijan by foce will occupy the current Syunik Oblast
of Armenia as at one time, the Third Reich by force ‘solved the question’ of the
Danzig corridor” and took another step toward a general war.
The Russian
commentator stresses that he isn’t in any way “comparing the current leaders of
Turkey and Azerbaijan” with Hitler. “But at the same time, the road through
Zengezur to Turkey is important as air to both countries; and for the
achievement of their goals, they are capable of applying a classical operation
under a false flag or by force.”
Indeed, he
says, “Ilham Aliyev has spoken about this completely openly.” But of course,
this can happen only if Russia pulls back, disbands its military base in
Gyumri, Armenia, and if Armenia exits from the Organization for the Collective
Security Treaty, although that grouping did little for Yerevan in the recent
fighting in Karabakh.
However
that may be, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey met in Nakchivan on
September 25 and discussed expanded links between both countries and that
exclave. The Turkish leader said that Turkish gas will reach Nakchivan later
this year and a Turkish railroad by 2028 (report.az/ru/energetika/bajraktar-zhiteli-nahchyvana-smogut-poluchat-gaz-iz-turcii-zimoj-sleduyushego-goda/ and trtrussian.com/novosti/turciya-k-2028-godu-planiruet-prolozhit-zheleznuyu-dorogu-v-nahchyvan-15165603).
And he
expressed the hope that if Armenia refuses to open a transit corridor across
Zyunik/Zengezur, then Iran will step in and professed to see positive signs
that Tehran would agree to open a transit route if Armenia didn’t (trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3803029.html
and vestikavkaza.ru/material/426767).
Erdogan’s
optimism may be misplaced, and neither Baku nor Ankara appears ready to accept
Iranian guarantees on this point, especially given the tensions between Iran,
on the one hand, and these two Turkic countries, on the other. As a result, a
Danzig corridor-type operation cannot be excluded.