A New and Unexpected Emigration – Russians Moving to Belarus for Comfort and Security

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – Increasing repression in Russia, declining economic opportunities there, and now Ukrainian drone attacks are leading ever more Russians to leave their own country and move to Belarus “in a search for comfort and security,” according to Irina Kravtsova.

            There are no available statistics on how large this flow has become, the Novaya Gazeta Europe journalist says; but it is clear from talk on social networks that it is no longer simply a curiosity. She spoke with four Russians who have already made this move (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2026/07/10/ia-tut-snova-stal-spat-golyshom).

            The first moved from St. Petersburg to Minsk in the summer of 2023. There are no language problems for him in Belarus, Dmitry says; and politics so far hasn’t become an issue. “As long as I’m not touched,” he continues, “every day I am becoming only more happy that I’ve moved.”

            The second, Kseniya, a native Muscovite moved in early 2025, moved not only to be with a Minsk air traffic controller but because she was happier to be in a place where income inequality was almost nonexistent at least in comparison with the Russian Federation now.

            The third relocator with whom Kravtsova spoke is a 28-year-old from Voronezh who moved to Brest in May of this year. He says that he began to think about leaving Russai when mobilization began in 2022; but as things got worse, he decided it was “incomprehensible” why he didn’t move to Belarus.

            Igor said that life in Belarus is far more pleasant than in his homeland and that he actively encourages other Russians to move. They won’t regret it, he suggests, however many temporary difficulties they may encourage. Life in the two countries is quite similar but life in Belarus is better.

            And the fourth, 38-year-old Elena, come from Minsk but after graduating from the Belarusian State University moved to Russia where she worked in advertising and in the public relations departments of various state institutions. She moved back because of increasing repression and the rising cost of living.

            So far, she has not found a job in Minsk; but she is optimistic and glad she has chosen to return to her original homeland. Life is better in many ways; and the fact that one has to avoid talking about politics is not a problem for Russians: they’ve already learned that lesson well. 

Declining Water Levels in Caspian ‘Irreversible’ and Littoral States Must Adapt, Azerbaijani Official Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 8 – The decline of the water level of the Caspian Sea, now falling at between 20 and 30 centimeters (eight to twelve inches) has become “irreversible,” Aliaga Azizov, deputy head of the State Supervision Service for the Use and Protection of Azerbaijan, says.

            Consequently, it is long past time to stop debating whether this is so and to focus instead on adapting to the situation now and preparing for it to become worse in the future, Baku’s senior water specialist says (casp-geo.ru/obmelenie-kaspijskogo-morya-stalo-neobratimym-protsessom-schitayut-v-baku/).

            He observes that “the shallowing of the Caspian Sea has a serious impact on various areas: ports, shipping, fishing, coastal tourism and oil and gas infrastructure. This poses additional challenges to countries that depend on sea resources,” and taken together those will require residents and businesses to adapt to new conditions.”

            Azizov’s words are important instance not only because they put Azerbaijan at odds with Russian specialists who remain more optimistic about the future but also because they come from someone on the southern shores of the Caspian where water levels over the last decades have fallen less rapidly than in the north.

            But more important still is his call for adapting to this new reality rather than continuing to deny it. If Azizov’s position reflects the thinking of the Azerbaijan government – and it is difficult to think that it does not – then Baku will be taking the lead in dredging operations and reconstruction of ports.

            That will be an expensive choice, but it is likely to be the only one that will allow Azerbaijan and her littoral neighbors to continue to use the Caspian as a source of food, petroleum products and transit, something that will have an impact on China, the EU, and the West generally which want to continue to send oil and other cargo across the Caspian. 

Karelian Activists Seek to Make Dual-Language Ballots Automatic For Themselves and Others

Paul Goble     

            Staunton, July 7 – Karelian activists are seeking to make dual-language ballots automatic in areas where ethnic minorities life rather than leaving question of whether to have such ballots printed up to local officials who often refuse to prepare such ballots even when requested to do so.

            The Russian constitution specifies that non-Russians have the right to ballots and other election forms in their native languages; but that provision of the basic law increasing is ignored by officials. Now activists in Karelia are trying to change that (mariuver.eu/2026/07/07/aktivisty-trebujut-bjulletenei-na-nacionalnyh-jazykah/).

            They are calling on Karels and Weps to continue to bombard election officials with demands that ballots be printed in their languages and to force the government to live up to its constitution not only there but elsewhere, demands that may seem a small point but are an indication of the kind of action that may have some chance of success.

            After all, calling on Moscow to live according to its own laws and constitution was one of the strongest tactics of the Moscow Helsinki Group in the last decades of Soviet power not because that organization got its way but because it gained support for the idea of a law-based state, something the Karelian activists clearly hope can happen again. 

Duma Approves Measure Taking Regulation of Migrant Workers Away from Labor Ministry and Giving It to Interior Ministry

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 8 – The Duma has now completed passage of a bill that takes the regulation of migrant workers away from the ministry of labor and gives it to the interior ministry, a step that seems set both to further centralize control in the hands of the police and to limit the crazy quilt of regulations which now vary from region to region.

            The measure makes two important changes that justify that conclusion. It gives the interior ministry rather than the labor ministry the power to define the list of professions migrants may fill; and it specifies that Moscow can now give migrant workers with permission in one place to exercise that right in others (nazaccent.ru/content/45671-professii-dlya-migrantov-teper-budet-vybirat-mvd-rossii/).

            If the measure is signed into law and there is every reason to believe it will be as it was pushed by the ruling United Russia Party, that will expand the role of Moscow and the police in regulating immigrant labor and thus allow the center to rewrite regulations in regions that the central government judges to be at odds with its interests. 

Per Capita, Russians in Far East Fall Victim to Politically Motivated Criminal Cases Far More Often than Those in Other Federal Districts, ‘Memorial’ Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 8 – The Memorial human rights organization reports that 2.5 per every 100,000 residents of the Russian Far East fell victim to politically motivated criminal cases during the first half of this year, the highest rate per capita of any federal district in the Russian Federation.

            Memorial researchers say that the reason for this is that increases in charges against Jehovah’s Witnesses. In the Far Eastern FD, almost one in four of such political charges involved religious groups whereas in other federal districts, the share was only seven percent (semnasem.org/news/2026/07/08/dalnij-vostok-vnov-stal-liderom-po-chislu-politicheski-motivirovannyh-ugolovnyh-del-na-dushu-naseleniya).

            They note that this is not the first time that the Far Eastern FD has led the Russian Federation in terms of such charges. The same thing was true throughout 2025 and thus continues a trend in which Russian officials far from Moscow are increasingly likely to bring such charges confident that they won’t be held to account by outside coverage. 

            Because this trend is greatest in the Far East and because it involves a religious group rather than an overtly political one, this aspect of repression in Putin’s Russia receives far less attention than it deserves given how few journalists or diplomats visit the region or even track what is going on there on a regular basis.

Moscow Payments to Women who Have a Child Don’t Compensate for Income They Lose by Doing So, New HSE Study Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 8 – A Russian woman who gives birth to a child loses on average 14 percent of her income compared to her coevals who do not give birth, and such losses are not compensated fully by government payments intended to reverse the decline in fertility rates there, according to a new Higher School of Economics study.

            This “maternity tax” as Russians now refer to it, the HSE study says, grows in size because women with children often shift to part time work or are unable to go on business trips or get training their childless counterparts do and as a result aren’t promoted (province.ru/society/4501069-shtraf-za-materinstvo-pochemu-jenshchinam-v-rossii-nevygodno-rojat/ ).

            Another consequence of this “tax” is that the gender gap in pay is increasing as the government pushes more women to have children without providing them with full compensation for the costs of doing so. This year, for example, according to HSE, that gap increased for the first time since 2013.

Tallinn has Given Russian Church in Estonia Six Months to Appoint a New Metropolitan and Sever All Ties with Moscow

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 7 – The Estonian interior ministry has sent a letter to all religious associations in that Baltic country that they have until December 28 to bring their groups into compliance with a law that prohibits such organizations from being subordinate to religious groups in a foreign country or face the prospect of dissolution.

            In five of the six cases, the letter is pro forma as they are already in compliance; but it raises the stakes regarding the future of the Estonian Orthodox Christian Church as the EOC of the Moscow Patriarchate has renamed itself (news.err.ee/1610071837/estonia-gives-orthodox-church-6-months-to-choose-between-god-and-the-kremlin).

            The EOCC faces two challenges in bringing itself into compliance with Estonian law: It must dismiss those on its governing board whose Estonian residence permits were not extended in the last 10 years and removing all references to the Moscow Patriarchate in the basic documents governing the operation of the Estonian church.

            The first will be difficult given that the EOCC’s metropolitan who was required to leave Estonia two years ago after losing his residence permit still serves on the governing board of the church. But the second will be even more difficult because the denomination insists that its governing document makes the ROC MP that makes it the supervisor of the Estonian Orthodox.

            Priit Rohtmets, a Tartu professor church history, says that while the EOCC will likely seek to reduce the role of the Moscow Patriarchate in governing its life, it is uncertain whether it will be able to eliminate all references to the ROC MP in its basic documents. That sets the stage for a crisis in relations between Tallinn and Moscow later this year. 

            That is especially unlikely, he says, because the ROC MP is almost certainly going to be willing “to let the Estonian Christian Orthodox Church. Even if, from the perspective of the church here, such a move would be justified and well-founded, Moscow likely still has an interest in preserving the existing church structure and its influence over the church in Estonia.”