New Ukrainian Study Says Eight out of Ten Russian Regions Capable of Rapidly Becoming Independent Countries Once Moscow Collapses

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – Eight of the ten republics and regions in the Russian Federation that Ukrainian scholars have examined are capable of rapidly transforming themselves into independent countries once the imperial center in Moscow collapses, according to a new report on the prospects for their independence discussed at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.  

            Valery Pekar, head of the Decolonization organization and one of the authors of the report, observed that Moscow “constantly uses arguments about the economic, humanitarian, political and other shortcomings of its own regions to justify its colonial policies” (abn.org.ua/en/analysis/arguments-for-decolonization-of-russia/).

              But notes that UN Resolution 1514 of December 1960 explicitly states that “insufficient economic or political readiness cannot be used as a reason to postpone independence” and urges that everyone look beyond Moscow’s arguments regarding how “prepared” Russia’s regions and republics are to stand on their own.

              According to another author of the republic, Ukrainian economist Andriy Dligach, the widely reported insolvency of Russia’s regions is Not a natural fact but a constructed reality” because “a region can receive more from the center than it earns” not because it is poor but because of the disproportionate “rents” Moscow extracts.

              The Ukrainian scholars selected ten regions for the first “wave” of this study: Ingria, Kuban, Oirat-Kalmykia, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, the Urals, Komi, Siberia, Sakha-Yakutia, and Buryatia, a deliberately “diverse” group of rich and poor, northern and southern, large and small, non-Russian and ethnic Russian, and with high and low protest activity.

              The Ukrainian team examined each of these in terms of “three indices of regional well-being: economic, humanitarian and political” and concluded that all ten could exist independently once Moscow disappears as the imperial center and that “at least eight … are capable of quickly transitioning to independence.

According to the Ukrainian investigators, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Buryatia, and the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) have “the highest political capacity” to move quickly to independence.  But others can follow because the money and fear that Moscow has used to hold things together are both quicky running out.

But the report doesn’t idealize the future. According to Pekar,  “some states will embark on the path to democracy. Others will become democratic republics. Still others may turn into dictatorships.” After all, that has been the experience of Ukraine and other non-Russians who escaped Russian rule in 1991. Others who do now will be the same.

Moscow’s Plans to Boost Russian Presence on Svalbard Compromised by Lack of Ships Qualified to Sail there, Artikugol Director Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – To counter Western moves in the Arctic and to expand Russian influence there, Moscow has announced programs to bring as many as 50,000 tourists from the Russian Federation to Norway’s Svalbard archipelago; but a senior Russian businessman there says that Russia currently lacks the ships capable of doing so.

            Ildar Neverov, head of Artikugol, the Russian coal mining enterprise there, has told TASS that Russia currently lacks enough ice-capable passenger ships to carry out that plan, a situation he hopes Moscow will overcome (tass.ru/ekonom, ika/27904085 and ru.thebarentsobserver.com/novosti/artikugol-hocet-rassirit-turizm-na-svalbarde-no-ispytyvaet-nehvatku-podhodasih-sudov/453545).

            Planes are not enough, he says, because none come directly from Russia and thus there are visa problems as well as capacity; and the number of ships available is far too small to handle anything like the number of tourists and workers for the coal mines that Moscow would like to see in Svalbard in the future.

            What represents an especially serious problem, he suggests, is that many of the ships now being used are more than 40 years old and thus do not have the electronic systems that can protect them against icebergs, a requirement since Moscow’s icebreaker fleet is committed elsewhere, and Russian yards are not now building the needed passenger ships.

            For background on Russia’s plans to use tourism as part of an effort to project Russian power in Svalbard, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2026/06/moscow-organizes-summer-school-in.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/11/moscow-plans-to-build-infrastructure-on.html.

Russian Foreign Ministry Denies Moscow Planning to Re-Introduce Soviet-Style Exit Permits

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – Among the most highly valued rights that Russians gained with the collapse of the Soviet system was the right to travel abroad at will rather than having to get the permission of the authorities to do so. Consequently, any report that Moscow is planning to reintroduce such a system draws angry denials.

            This week, the We Can Explain telegram channel said that its sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Presidential Administration said that such restrictions were under discussion and preparing to take just such a step (t.me/mozhemobyasnit/23637 and echofm.online/news/rossijskij-mid-gotovit-zakonoproekt-o-vvedenii-vyezdnyh-viz-mozhem-obyasnit).

            That report immediately drew an angry reaction from the foreign ministry which described it as classic disinformation by foreign agents and pointing out that it had been disseminated only by outlets  that had been identified as working for Russia’s enemies (https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/07/2026/6a50ee639a7947707e6d98ed).

            But despite that denial, many Russians are likely to be disturbed by the initial reports especially as they suggested that the Kremlin planned to introduce it gradually so as to test the waters and to present such restrictions as part of a Russian government effort to “protect” Russians who might travel abroad.

            According to the We Can Explain portal, “the proposal is that tourists from the Russian Federation would only be able to travel to 'unfriendly' countries (NATO nations) in groups of at least 10 people, accompanied by a guide and following an approved itinerary. This will be presented as a measure 'for the safety of Russian citizens.'"

            Presumably, if the reports are true, the Russian government will gradually tighten the system and require exit visas for Russians who want to travel to any country and not just NATO member states. But even if they are not, such stories will increase both the fears and angers of the Russian population about what the Kremlin intends.

Marxism Triumphed First in Russia Because Its Core Value, the Denial of Freedom, was ‘Characteristic of Russian National Consciousness,’ Tsipko Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 9 – Many Moscow commentators and politicians are suggesting that Russia’s future should involve the restoration of the Soviet system, a view that reflects their ignorance of what Soviet Marxism was about, how many different forms it took, and why it ultimately failed, Aleksandr Tsipko says.

            Typically, the senior Russian political commentator says, advocates of a return to the Soviet past “do not say which socialism we should return to,” something important because of the enormous differences between Stalin’s socialism and Khrushchev’s (mk.ru/social/2026/07/09/nazad-k-socializmu-chto-stoit-za-prizyvami-vernut-sovremennuyu-rossiyu-v-proshloe.html).

            For some reason, those calling for a return to Soviet socialism “never say anything good about Khrushchevian socialism.” Instead, they routinely insist that “the tragedy is that Khrushchev began to reform the Soviet system as created by Stalin and therefore allegedly opened the way to the death of the USSR.”

            “All the currently fashionable ideologists who are calling for a return to socialism do not take into account that, as Marx insisted, a socialist economy is to be build on the principle of militarization” and the authoritarianism needed to keep the system in that state, Tsipko continues.

            One reason that Stalinist socialism is so attractive to such people is that the Marxist “utopia,” with “its denial of freedom, morality and the value of human” are congruent with “our native Russian nationalism.” That is why it was in Russia that Bolshevism arose in that country and why the Soviets were the first to try to realize the ideas of Marx.

            Soviet socialism survived as long as it did, the commentator says, largely because it was imperfect. It was saved by the private plots of peasants who raised much of the country’s food and by the sale of oil and other natural resources abroad. When the latter failed to bring in enough money, the entire house of cards collapsed.

            Anyone who seriously wants to advocate Russia’s return to Soviet-style socialism, Tsipko says, needs to address these questions and ask himself and others seriously whether Russians really want to go through another cycle of repression, suffering and ultimately collapse.

            Although the fact that Marxist utopianism and Russian national consciousness have so much in common is clearly the reason why there are so many advocates in Moscow today for the revival of such a disastrous project, the senior Russian commentator who lived most of his life in Soviet times suggests.

Permafrost Melting Seen Increasing Radioactive Contamination of Ob and Irtysh Rivers

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 9 – Research by the Russian Academy of Sciences shows that the radioactive contamination of the Ob and Irtysh, high after the Soviets began testing nuclear weapons in the area, has fallen to acceptable levels but says that the melting of the permafrost as a result of global warming is leading to its increase again.

            In what they describe as the  first comprehensive analysis of radiation contamination of these two Siberian rivers, the scholars say that there is a real danger that the progress Russia has achieved in cutting radiation may be overwhelmed by the impact of the melting of permafrost.

            (For a discussion the findings of this research project and citations to the three original articles the investigators published earlier this year, see caspian.land/37386-vpervye-proveden-kompleksnyj-analiz-radiacionnoj-i-jekologicheskoj-bezopasnosti-obi-i-irtysha.html.)

            Both the numerically small peoples of the Russian North and ethnic Russian communities there are certain to be reassured by the finding that conditions have improved with regard to water and fish taken from these rivers, but they and others are likely to be alarmed by the suggestion that permafrost melting may create new dangers.

            Russian scholars have devoted much attention to the fact that the melting of the permafrost is releasing ever more bacteria and viruses into the atmosphere (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-ice-will-melt-and-we-will-all-die.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/04/melting-of-permafrost-may-release-not.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/12/melting-of-permafrost-in-russian-north.html).

            But they have been chary about talking about the much more explosive possibility that permafrost melting will lead to the stirring up of more radioactive materials into the water supply and the fish people along Siberian rivers eat. That makes this latest research especially important as a political as well as a social and economic development.

A New and Unexpected Emigration – Russians Moving to Belarus for Comfort and Security

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – Increasing repression in Russia, declining economic opportunities there, and now Ukrainian drone attacks are leading ever more Russians to leave their own country and move to Belarus “in a search for comfort and security,” according to Irina Kravtsova.

            There are no available statistics on how large this flow has become, the Novaya Gazeta Europe journalist says; but it is clear from talk on social networks that it is no longer simply a curiosity. She spoke with four Russians who have already made this move (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2026/07/10/ia-tut-snova-stal-spat-golyshom).

            The first moved from St. Petersburg to Minsk in the summer of 2023. There are no language problems for him in Belarus, Dmitry says; and politics so far hasn’t become an issue. “As long as I’m not touched,” he continues, “every day I am becoming only more happy that I’ve moved.”

            The second, Kseniya, a native Muscovite moved in early 2025, moved not only to be with a Minsk air traffic controller but because she was happier to be in a place where income inequality was almost nonexistent at least in comparison with the Russian Federation now.

            The third relocator with whom Kravtsova spoke is a 28-year-old from Voronezh who moved to Brest in May of this year. He says that he began to think about leaving Russai when mobilization began in 2022; but as things got worse, he decided it was “incomprehensible” why he didn’t move to Belarus.

            Igor said that life in Belarus is far more pleasant than in his homeland and that he actively encourages other Russians to move. They won’t regret it, he suggests, however many temporary difficulties they may encourage. Life in the two countries is quite similar but life in Belarus is better.

            And the fourth, 38-year-old Elena, come from Minsk but after graduating from the Belarusian State University moved to Russia where she worked in advertising and in the public relations departments of various state institutions. She moved back because of increasing repression and the rising cost of living.

            So far, she has not found a job in Minsk; but she is optimistic and glad she has chosen to return to her original homeland. Life is better in many ways; and the fact that one has to avoid talking about politics is not a problem for Russians: they’ve already learned that lesson well. 

Declining Water Levels in Caspian ‘Irreversible’ and Littoral States Must Adapt, Azerbaijani Official Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 8 – The decline of the water level of the Caspian Sea, now falling at between 20 and 30 centimeters (eight to twelve inches) has become “irreversible,” Aliaga Azizov, deputy head of the State Supervision Service for the Use and Protection of Azerbaijan, says.

            Consequently, it is long past time to stop debating whether this is so and to focus instead on adapting to the situation now and preparing for it to become worse in the future, Baku’s senior water specialist says (casp-geo.ru/obmelenie-kaspijskogo-morya-stalo-neobratimym-protsessom-schitayut-v-baku/).

            He observes that “the shallowing of the Caspian Sea has a serious impact on various areas: ports, shipping, fishing, coastal tourism and oil and gas infrastructure. This poses additional challenges to countries that depend on sea resources,” and taken together those will require residents and businesses to adapt to new conditions.”

            Azizov’s words are important instance not only because they put Azerbaijan at odds with Russian specialists who remain more optimistic about the future but also because they come from someone on the southern shores of the Caspian where water levels over the last decades have fallen less rapidly than in the north.

            But more important still is his call for adapting to this new reality rather than continuing to deny it. If Azizov’s position reflects the thinking of the Azerbaijan government – and it is difficult to think that it does not – then Baku will be taking the lead in dredging operations and reconstruction of ports.

            That will be an expensive choice, but it is likely to be the only one that will allow Azerbaijan and her littoral neighbors to continue to use the Caspian as a source of food, petroleum products and transit, something that will have an impact on China, the EU, and the West generally which want to continue to send oil and other cargo across the Caspian.