Ivanov’s Death Highlights that the Putin Generation is Dying Off Much as the Brezhnev One Did a Half Century Ago, Russian Bloggers Point Out

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 1 – For some time, many have been speculating about how long Putin will remain alive and in power; but the death at the end of June of his close friend and aide, who was roughly the same age as the Kremlin leader, has prompted Russian bloggers to speak about the passing of an entire generation of leaders.

            Mark Krutov of Radio Liberty has assembled some of their comments which reflect both hopes and fears about the way in which the aging of the current leaders who had seemed eternal in both cases changes things (svoboda.org/a/okruzhenie-putina-redeet-sotsseti-o-smerti-sergeya-ivanova/33792113.html).

            Two of the commentaries on Ivanov’s passing seem especially prescient. Yanuta Laiminga says that his death shows that “Putin’s entourage is thinning” and that “soon the country will enter into a period with a series of magnificent funerals,” something that will highlight “the very fragility of the system.”

            And Artem Izgagin says that Ivanov’s demise has “something very Brezhnev-like in it. Then, a half century ago, “it also seemed that the leaders of the country were as much part of the permanent landscape as the Kremlin wall; but then it turned out that they were mortals” and so too was the system they had led for so long.

Moscow Stock Market Offers Better Indication of Public Sentiment than Any Poll or Focus Group, Rybakova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 1 – “Russia’s stock market is the best measure of Russia’s problems,” far better than any poll or focus group, Tatyana Rybakova says, because it speaks “with absolute honest about what it thinks of the economy and the ways that economy is being managed or mismanaged.

            Writing in The Moscow Times, the Russian commentator points out that the stock market is “the most honest and fastest public opinion poll because it takes place in real time and aggregates the views of thousands of participants” (themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/01/russias-stock-market-is-the-best-measure-of-russias-problems-the-signs-arent-good-a93139).

            And it is more accurate than these other measures because those participating in the stock market, while they may be wrong on occasion, are voicing opinions that reflect the fact that they have money in the game and stand to gain or lose depending on how right they are. Moreover, these assessments are “cynical and not held back by moral qualms.”

            What the Russian stock market shows now is that Russians have lost confidence in the country’s economy and those who run it. They no longer think firms will generate profits. They see that the government lacks any means of controlling inflation other than raising interest rates. And they recognize that the powers still think in Soviet terms.

            Rybakova acknowledges that the market is “a little slow, not from stupidity but because ‘the whales’ – large pools of capital concentrated in investment firms – control such a large share of the Russian market that they can turn the index in any direction they want.” But this ability is limited and can’t last for very long in any particular case.

            Consequently, the Russian commentator concludes, watching changes in market averages week by week if not day by day is the best way to know what Russians really think not just about the economy but about also the Kremlin that likes to claim it is controlling its direction. 

Anti-Western and Pro-War Attitudes ‘Much More Pronounced’ in Moscow than Beyond the Ring Road, Gudkov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 1 – Like most people, Lev Gudkov says that until recently he had been accustomed to thinking about Moscow as being at the center of Russian protests; but now the situation had changed and its residents are far more aggressive and anti-Russian than are those in the federal subjects beyond the ring road.

            The Levada Center sociologist says that this reflects both the departure of many opponents of the war from the capital and the fact that Moscow residents are doing relatively well while most people in the regions and republics are suffering. As always, those who are poor “don’t really want to fight” (theins.ru/podkasty/294289).

            Residents of the regions, Gudkov continues, “believe that the war isn’t needed and that too much money is being spent on it. They think it would be better for that money to be spent on them … as a result of these differences, “anti-war sentiment is more common in the provinces for these reasons.”

            Muscovites in contrast are “very loyal to the authorities and very aggressive towards the West … despite the fact that they live in a more informed and more educated environment,” he says. Those who used to speak out against Kremlin policies have left and thus do not have the impact they once did.

            Another reason for this divide, Gudkov argues, is that Muscovites have been less affected by the war than have people in the regions and republics. As a result of Kremlin policies, Moscow has provided fewer soldiers and continues to act as if the war is something that doesn’t matter to them personally. Those in the provinces know otherwise.

Drones Also Dropping Delayed Action Mines, Further Complicating De-Mining Operations

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 30 – Media attention to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia and Russian drone attacks on Ukraine have largely focused on their immediate impact, explosions, fires, and the killing and wounding of people; but they have longer term consequences as well because drones from the two countries are laying mines in unexpected places.

            That danger has been pointed out by a Russian military analyst speaking on condition of anonymity of Novaya Gazeta Europe who says that will affect residents for many years by making demining efforts even more difficult than they already are (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2026/06/30/my-dolgoe-ekho-drug-druga).

            And cleaning up mines laid during the conflict will take years if not decades because maps of mines laid are notoriously unreliable – too many different military units are involved – and mean that even more Russians and Ukrainians will be injured or killed when they unwittingly step on mines laid earlier. 

Riga Says Probability of Russian Attack on Baltic States ‘Very Low’

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 29 – At a time when many Western analysts are suggesting that Putin may launch an attack on NATO by invading the Baltic countries, Latvia’s Bureau for the Protection of the Constitution says that the likelihood of a large-scale Russian attack on the Baltic countries is “extremely low.”

            What is likely, the Bureau says, is continued and even expanded Russian hybrid attacks and provocations against the three Baltic countries to put pressure on NATO and the West with regard to Putin’s war in Ukraine and other issues (leta.lv/rus/home/important/B6B7347C-0E97-4E70-BCE8-43630A82BA22/).

            This announcement thus is not only part of an effort to calm a population that has been bombarded with suggestions that a Russian attack is imminent but also to suggest that Russia’s hybrid war against the Balts will continue but is less about them than about other matters of concern to the major powers.

For Putin, Elections Remain Important as Means of ‘Testing the Waters’ as Far as What the Elites and Population Now Think, Chernozub Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 30 – For Putin, elections remain critically important even though their results are pre-ordained because they serve as a means of “testing the waters” as to what the elites and the population are prepared to put up with, according to Vsevolod Chernozub. 

            The Russian commentator who now lives in Lithuania argues that election campaigns act “as the ultimate political tool, as a way to gauge their standing, approval rating and distance from the public as well as to assess external influences” on political processes (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2026/06/30/iznos-elektorata).

            These “external influences” are not radicals now in emigration, Chernozub continues. Rather “the KPRF in recent years has become a factor of external influence” given its continued support by part of the Russian population and the support that party’s leadership gives to the Chinese government as an alternative model of rule.

            This year, he says, “this ‘testing of the waters’ appears to have shown if not the complete rupture of the social contract between the authorities and the people at least a total breakdown in communication between them, with implications ranging from the metaphorical to the literal.”

            According to Chernozub, the situation has deteriorated to the point that some in the United Russia Party are “claiming that the party has nothing to do with bans now being imposed in Russia” by the government and that these are “merely the machinations of political rivals.”

            Such claims are patently absurd, but they are a clear indivation that the popularity of United Russia or even the powers that be in general are hardly as high as they were and that the results of primaries and the party’s convention show that “the Kremlin recognized this” and is modifying its message if not yet its action.

            The real campaign which is yet to begin will continue this process of “testing the waters,” Chernozub says; but as of now, it is “a big question as to what will come of this second phase or even if anything will come of it at all.” But it may prompt the Kremlin to make adjustments so that its standing with elites and the people won’t continue to fall.

Human Use, Not Climate Change Behind Falling Water Levels in Amu-Darya River System, New Research Shows

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 30 – Many blame climate change for the decline in the flow of water in Central Asia’s Amu-Darya river system; but in fact, if that were the only factor driving change, water flows there would have increased slightly over the last century, according to new research published by Science Direct.

            Instead, the research suggests, it is expanded human use, especially for agricultural 14 to purposes, that is responsible for the decline because the impact of such consumption more than compensates for what should be an increase (asiaplus.news/2026/06/30/vody-v-amudare-stalo-namnogo-menshe-uchenye-obyasnili-glavnuyu-prichinu/).

            That reality should guide the governments of the region and those who hope to help Central Asia rather than the false assumption that climate change rather than human activity is responsible. This false belief is nothing more than an attempt to shift responsibility away from human agency.

            The investigation compared temperature and rainfall in the region of the Amu-Darya basin between the 1930s and now. Temperatures have indeed risen by 0.52 to 0.83 degrees centigrade and rainfall has increased by 14 percent, tends that should have increased the flow of the river by 14 to 20 percent.

            But that vector has been overwhelmed by increased human consumption, especially for agriculture, and so the amount of water passing through this river system has fallen by 22 percent or more, with some portions of the watershed seeing far greater declines.

            Only more efficient use of water and a shift away from agricultural crops that require vast amounts of water have any chance of changing this situation before the declines in flow force the hand of officials and the population when these decline even more in the coming years.