Moscow Finalizing Plans to Take Baltic Countries to International Criminal Court over Their Treatment of Ethnic Russians

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 16 – The Russian foreign ministry says that Moscow is now finalizing plans to files suit in the International Criminal Court against Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for their treatment of ethnic Russians. Baltic officials and experts say that there is no basis for such charges but warn that the case, even if ultimately unsuccessful, will have negative consequences.

            Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Mariya Zakharova said the Russian government is ycompleting the pre-litigation phase and expects to file charges by the end of this year or the beginning of next (en.rebaltica.lv/2026/07/from-propaganda-to-the-courtroom-how-russia-is-building-a-legal-case-against-the-baltic-states/).

            Baltic governments and academic experts say the charges Russia plans to bring are baseless but that the Russian case is of real concern to them because Moscow will use as a form of propaganda against the three Baltic countries and even to set the stage for a more major military move against them.

            More immediately, there is the danger that the ICC will issue some temporary orders even if it ultimately rejects the Russian suit and the certainty that the case will drag on and be very expensive not only in terms of money but perhaps even more in terms of the reputation of these three countries.

            This latest Russian use of lawfare against its opponents is intended to lead to demands within the Baltic countries that their governments not continue to support Ukraine; but what is most worrisome is that by presenting Russia’s claims in ostensibly legal language, many in the West will be taken in and reduce their support for the three. 

‘Digital Archaeological Gap’ Hitting Central Asia Especially Hard

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 16 – Many assume, the Bugin portal says, that digitalization has made documents immortal; but the reality in Central Asia – and not just there – is that “digital memory is proving less durable than that kept on paper and electronic files far more vulnerable to decay than an ancient manuscript.”

            As a result, the current faith that digitalization will save the situation may mean, the portal continues, that future students of the past “may know more about life in cities from two millenia ago than about the daily lives of people who lived in the internet age” (bugin.info/detail/khrupche-drevnikh-ruin-kak/ru).

“It is commonly assumed that digital information is immortal, yet the reality is quite the opposite. Files constantly require migration to new devices, as operating systems, storage standards, and software evolve. A document saved thirty years ago often cannot be opened using modern software,” Bugin says.

              “In Central Asia,” it continues, “this issue is compounded by the uneven pace of digitalization. While state archives are gradually transitioning to electronic storage systems, municipal institutions, local newspaper offices, rural libraries, cultural centers, and small museums often operate with limited resources.”

            “The avalanche-like growth in the volume of information being created … works against preservation because people stop organizing their archives and rely instead on cloud services, social media or phone storage;” and this is leading to “the emergence of a new phenomenon: ‘the digital archaeological gap.”

            Paradoxically, this gap is why “we sometimes know more about the life of a person from the 19^th century than we do about someone from the early 21^st,” Bugin says. That is true in many places, but Central Asia faces especial challenges because of the high mobility of the population, climate which works against preservation, and the shortage of efforts to save archives.

            What is an especially important task now, the portal says, is “establishing unified preservation standards: File formats, backup systems, metadata requirements, cataloguing methods, and interoperability of archival platforms are becoming just as important as the documents themselves.”

            If those issues are not addressed now and solutions found, even “digital collections risk becoming fragmented data sets that no one will be able to use only a few decades from now,” Bugin concludes.

Career FSB Officer who heads Russia’s Agency for Nationality Affairs Demands International Community Stop Trying to Speak in Defense of His Country’s Minorities

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 16 – Igor Barinov, a career FSB officer who now heads Russia’s Agency for Nationality Affairs and whose staff includes at least 13 others drawn from Russian security agencies, is demanding that the international community stop trying to speak in defense of his country’s ethnic minorities.

            At the 19^th session of the UN Expert Mechanism on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples held in Geneva this week, Barinov called  on the international community to adopt “a depoliticized approach” regarding indigenous rights and complained about “the lack of objectivity” in the mechanism’s research regarding Russia.

            (For details on his speech and background on his FSB service and his use of other security agency officers in the bureaucracy responsible for overseeing Moscow’s approach on ethnic minorities, see t.me/fadnrf/6838 as discussed at echofm.online/news/rossijskij-chinovnik-v-zheneve-prizval-depolitizirovat-zashhitu-prav-korennyh-narodov-ranee-on-sluzhil-v-fsb-vyyasnila-arktida.)

            In his speech, Barinov said that Russia “has its own historical experience in recognizing and ensuring the rights of indigenous peoples. This approach has made it possible to preserve their population numbers, as well as their traditional settlement patterns, livelihood systems, and self-governance structures, over the centuries."

            One hardly knows where to start to address just how false Barinov’s claims are, notions that have been documented as untrue by activists and academic specialists in Russia itself and recognized as untrue by those in the international community who have paid close attention to Russia’s efforts to undermine and even destroy ethnic minorities.

            Attempting to dismiss their criticism as political and demanding that they adopt a non-political approach, a demand that seems little more than one which calls on everyone to accept everything he and other FSB officers say, is yet another example of the regime headed by another FSB officer trying to deny the obvious by throwing a shroud over unpleasant realities.

            The best response to this bombastic and outrageous approach is for all those taking part in the UN mechanism on minorities to step up their demands that the peoples themselves and their representatives be allowed to speak for themselves rather than their places being usurped as now by security personnel whose commitment to the truth is anything but strong.

            And in addition to that, the international community as a whole needs to focus more attention on just what the Putin regime is doing when it comes to ethnic minorities and the ways in which it is trying to hide its horrendous record in that regard. Anything less will allow the Kremlin and the FSB to proceed with what they have been doing.

Ukrainian Reaction to Firing of Defense Chief Proves ‘Ukraine is Not Russia,’ Eidman Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 16 – The reaction by Ukrainians to the dismissal of their country’s defense ministry is compelling evidence that Ukraine is not Russia, Igor Eidman says. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs only to ask himself or herself if one could imagine Russians reacting the dismissal of a defense minister by taking to the streets to protest.

            The Russian sociologist now living in Germany says that “Ukraine has once again shown that it is a democratic state with a mature civil society,” one in which “people care what happens at the top, react keenly and immediately to events, and one in which the authorities listen to them (t.me/igoreidman/3119 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/pochemu-ukraina-ne-rossiya).

“It remains unclear how this case will end,” Eidman continues. “ Zelenskyy might yet reverse his decision under public pressure, just as happened with the attempt to strip anti-corruption bodies of their independence,” something absolutely unimaginable in the case of Russians and their leader.

If Putin “dismisses another defense minister, the vast majority of the population simply wouldn’t care,” he continues. Firing anyone without regard to what people think is “the god of that country,” and this god has the prerogative to do what he likes. The population thus “behaves not like a society of citizens but rather a mute herd.”

According to Eidman, “this herd views everything happening at the top as a natural phenomenon—something beyond its control and something it cannot influence. Any action taken by the cruel shepherd is met either with submissive lowing or, more often, with total silence.”

That settles the matter: Whatever Putin or anyone else thinks, “Ukraine is not Russia,” he says. And the war going on there is “not merely Russian aggression …  It is also a struggle by a Ukrainian democratic society against a totalitarian system of enslavement, a system obsessed with extending its internal servitude to others.”

New Law Defining Who is a Writer May Change Little But Opens Door to Abuse, Experts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 15 – Under the terms of a law that will go into effect as of September 1, writers will be formally recognized as a distinct profession within the Russian legal system. Most observers see it as a positive step that will allow writers to formalize employment relationships and qualify for social benefits, but some see it as a potential tool for bureaucratic control.

            Nakanune journalist Elena Rychkova, in reporting on this debate, says that after the Soviet Union collapsed, “writers, composers and other freelancers lost the system of creative unions that had previously provided them with pension contributions and healthcare coverage” (nakanune.ru/articles/124847/).

            Most of the professionals who lost such standing in the legal system have already regained it, but writers are only doing so now, she continues. They will now be accruing employment hours and pension contributions, something they have not been able to do since 1992.

            But the question arises, Rychkova points out, as to “who will decide whether an author is professionally qualified or not.” Presumably most firms which employ writers, such as publishing houses, will make that determination on their own and so the new law will benefit the writers without limiting their opportunities.

            There is, however, “an even more important question,” she suggests. “Might the existence of the standard defining a writer lead to the homogenization of creative work, where meeting formal criteria becomes more significant than artistic merit.” The bureaucrats who will decide who is a writer in legal terms will thus have a powerful and perhaps adverse effect.

            That happened in Soviet times when the Writers’ Union expelled those its political masters did not approve of; and that could happen again under this new arrangement. For most writers, however, the new legal arrangement will be a net plus, although as Rychkova’s interlocutors say, abuses of various kinds remain quite possible.

World Cup Drawing Russian Viewers Away from Political Talk Shows, Mediascope Data Show

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 15 – Even before the semi-final matches, broadcasts of World Cup matches drew Russian viewers away from political talk shows and entertainment programs and allowed the Russian sports channel Match TV to dominate ratings in recent weeks, Mediascope data show.

            Its figures, gathered in ways like the Nielsen ratings are in the United States, have been reported by the We Can Explain telegram channel (t.me/mozhemobyasnit/23670) and discussed in detail by the NeMoskva portal (https://nemoskva.net/2026/07/15/futbol-pobedil-propagandu-rossiyane-smotryat-chempionat-mira-po-futbolu-vmesto-politicheskih-tok-shou-na-goskanalah/).

            Over the past month, Match TV broadcasts of World Cup matches dominated Russian TV viewing. The clearest example was when the match between Argentina and Egypt garnered twice as many people as did the main political program hosted by Dmitry Kiselyov.

            This situation is likely to remain the case, with Match TV’s advantage over all other channels increasing as the final rounds and championship of the World Cup take place. 

Moscow and Astana Inch toward Cooperation on Second Trans-Border River Flowing into the Caspian

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 15 – A serious controversy has arisen between the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan over the state of the Volga River which feeds the Caspian Sea (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/08/russians-outraged-kazakhstan-wants.html ). Now the two countries are edging toward cooperating on a second such river, the Ural.

            The Ural, which arises in Russia’s Ural Mountains and flows through Kazakhstan before emptying in the Caspian, makes a significantly smaller contribution to the water levels of that sea than does the Volga; but progress on cooperation there could lead to progress on the other (altyn-orda.kz/rossiya-obratilas-k-kazahstanu-za-pomoshhyu-v-spasenii-reki-ural/).

            Moscow is pressing hard for an agreement that will require the two countries to work together on the Ural between 2027 and 2032, and Astana officials say they want to be involved. Complicating this situation and making it far more fraught is the effort of Orenburg Oblast officials to involve Kazakhstan specialists in this effort.

            Orenburg, on the border of Russia and Kazakhstan, was once the capital of Kazakhstan; and some argue that its recovery is essential if the nations of the Middle Volga are to achieve independence from Moscow. (On this, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/09/orenburg-corridor-arose-because-kazakhs.html).