Young Russians Caught in ‘Paternalistic Trap,’ New Study Finds, with Many Expecting to Deliver Basic Social Guarantees but No Longer Trusting It to Do So

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 10 – Young Russians expect the state to deliver the basic social guarantees it has promised but no longer trust that it will do so, leaving them in “a paternalistic trap” and putting this critical social contract at risk of collapse in the event of shocks, according to a new study of students in Yekaterinburg universities.

            The study by Urals Federal University scholars Yekaterina Zaytseva and Irina Britvina is entitled “Life Strategies of Students in Yekaterinburg as a Reflection of the State of the Social Contract” (in Russian) is in the latest issue of the Courier of the Institute of Sociology and is available at fnisc.ru/index.php?page_id=2624&jn=vestnik&jn=vestnik&jid=1171.

            It is discussed in detail by Yevgeny Chernyshov, a Nakanune journalist who follows social and political trends in the Urals region, at https://www.nakanune.ru/articles/125255/. In his review, the journalist says that the findings of this study call into question assumptions that all is rosy in relations between young Russians and the Russian state.

            The survey Zaytseva and Britvina carried out found that the vast majority of students (79 percent) have paternalistic expectations about the state and believe that the state much live up to its promises to provide high incomes, housing, medical care and the like. But just over half of these felt the Russian government is currently living up to its half of the bargain.

            According to the authors, “young people have not broken ties with the state physically but are alienated from it psychologically, no longer seeing any meaning in continuing a dialogue with the authorities.” Indeed, the authors say, young Russians “do not perceive the state as a party to which a contract is possible or necessary.”

            University students in Yekaterinburg thus believe they must make their own way and not count on the state to come through, a situation which could have serious political consequences in the event of a shock, Chernyshov says, one ever more likely to arise because the internet spreads imagery of the failings of the Russian state now to fulfill its promises. 

Future Commercial Rewards from Expanded Arctic Shipping ‘Surprisingly Small,’ European Scholars Say, but ‘Environmental and Geopolitical Risks Remain Substantial'

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 9 – Many have accepted Moscow’s vision that the Arctic will be a major route for maritime shipping, Boris Vergote says; but the rewards from the retreat of sea ice may be “surprisingly small” while “the environmental and geopolitical risks” are likely to “remain substantial.”

            Vergote, one of the co-authors of a 56-page study of these issues by European scholars, says that their research shows that Arctic routes are indeed shorter but that by itself doesn’t mean they are more cost effective or less risky. (The full text of the report itself is available online at  cdn.bfldr.com/WF0QU2QB/as/k97r4kr5v4m7r9ggnn5zr9/Systemiq_-_Breaking_the_Ice_Report A detailed discussion of its key findings can be found at arctictoday.com/arctic-shipping-brings-shorter-routes-but-few-rewards-new-research-finds/.)

            Among the greater costs that shippers using the Northern Sea Route or other Arctic routes must bear are building ice-capable ships, higher insurance premiums, lower speeds, and sparse infrastructure on shore in the case of accidents or for intermediate stops, the last of which is a major component for container shipping elsewhere.

            As a result and despite boosterism in Moscow, Beijing and some other centers, the report says, shipping in the Arctic is unlikely to form more than 0.2 percent of global maritime trade by value in 2050 because shippers who use these routes will save only 100 million US dollars by doing so, a drop in the bucket of spending on oceanic shipping worldwide.

            The European report also stresses that such shipping will cause serious environmental damage and will likely involve geopolitical competition among major powers given the location of Russia along much of the route and the US location at the entrance of the Arctic from the Pacific.

            The report thus serves as a useful corrective to the enthusiasm of some and the fears of others that the Northern Sea Route and other Arctic shipping lanes will soon radically transform international trade routes. Arctic routes may play a key role in the extraction of resources there, but they won’t transform international trade in the near term nearly as much as some suggest.

 

Russia’s Muslim Leaders Support Tokayev’s Proposal for Russia to Become Associate of Organization of Turkic States

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 6 – At the Organization of Turkish States summit in Ankara on October 30, Kazakhstan President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev proposed having the Russian Federation participation in an associate capacity with the OTS, something Russia’s Muslim leaders welcomed but that a senior Turkish official has questioned because of language requirements.

            Tokayev’s proposal (akorda.kz/en/kassym-jomart-tokayev-addresses-the-13th-summit-of-the-organization-of-turkic-states-319348) drew immediate support from the leaders of Russia’s senior Muslim Spiritual Directorates who clearly view the idea as something that would elevate their status (altyn-orda.kz/rossijskie-musulmane-podderzhali-ideyu-tokaeva-o-vstuplenii-rossii-v-tyurkskij-soyuz-chto-zayavili-v-moskve/).

            But a senior Turkish political official questioned the idea given that the OTS requires that its members speak a Turkic language, something those in power in Russia clearly do not do, a reaction that makes it unlikely Tokayev’s call will gain traction (timesca.com/turkish-official-questions-tokayevs-proposal-of-ots-observer-status-for-russia/).

            This back and forth recalls both the ongoing debate in Turkish nations over whether Pan-Turkism should be “large” or “small” (cronos.asia/news/bolshoy-i-malyy-pantyurkizm-pochemu-raskalyvaetsya-tyurkskiy-mir/) and the presentation to Turkish President Erdogan in November 2021 of a map showing the Turkic peoples of Russia as part of the Turkic world (caucasuswatch.de/en/news/nationalists-presented-erdogan-map-of-turkic-world-with-regions-of-southern-russia.html).

The appearance of that map provoked a violent response by Russian commentators who declared that even if the OTS expanded, it would never include nations like the Republic of Sakha in the Russian north (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/01/greater-turan-will-never-include.html).

Moscow TV Film Describes Portion of Norway’s Svalbard Archipelago as ‘a Russian Enclave Beyond the Arctic Circle’

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 6 – A 52-minute NTV film entitled “Svalbard. The Coal Archipelago” being shown in Moscow this week simultaneously suggests that Russia already has an “enclave” there and that Norway is militarizing the islands in violation of international law, according to Denis Zagorje of The Barents Observer.

            The film itself is available at rutube.ru/video/410a40573261fa50d530c6c02f587b3e/. The Barents Observer journalist’s report about it is at ru.thebarentsobserver.com/novosti/na-ntv-pokazali-film-pro-svalbard-cto-s-nim-ne-tak/461421.

            According to Zagorje, the film creates “the impression that there is a territory under Russian sovereignty in the archipelago” by stating that those who view it will see “how they live and work in the Russian enclave beyond the Arctic Circle,” a falsehood given that there is no such thing as a Russian enclave there. All the territory is under Norwegian sovereignty.

            But that is not the only false message of the film, he continues. Most of the movie is devoted to attacking Norway for militarizing Svalbard, even though the pictures the film claims show that are of military exercises elsewhere and the attacks against Oslo are at a minimum tendentious and more to the point outrageously false.

            This is the latest and most public example of Moscow’s effort to prepare Russians for the possibility of a move against Svalbard and thus NATO. For background on that possibility, see jamestown.org/moscows-first-move-against-nato-could-take-place-in-norways-svalbard-archipelago/ and jamestown.org/moscow-using-svalbard-to-test-natos-readiness-and-resolve/.  

Unlike Belarusians who Left Their Country in 2020, Russians who Left Theirs in 2022 have Not Formed a Unified Political Community, Konstantin Ivanov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 8 – For three major reasons, Konstantin Ivanov says, the Belarusians who left their country in 2020 after Lukashenka stole the election have formed a unified political community while the Russians who left theirs in 2022 because of Putin’s expanded war in Ukraine have not formed one and appear unlikely to do so, Konstantin Ivanov says.

            For any mass exodus to lead to the formation of such a community, the commentator says, three things are necessary: a common event which provides a point of reference for all involved, a vision of the future within which people can argue, and horizonal institutions where individuals can become participants.

            The Belarusians, Ivanov continues, “have all of these; while the Russians have none of them.” And thus it should surprise no one that the Belarusian diaspora has become a political community while the Russian diaspora has not and does not appear likely to do so anytime in the future (ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/11/08/nenastupivshaya-diaspora-a210728).

Had Bolsheviks Not Seized Power, Russia Would have Been Reduced to the Size of Muscovy Shortly After October 1917, Shirokorad Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 7 – A major reason Russian patriots should be glad that the Bolsheviks seized power in October 1917 is that they prevented their country from being reduced to the size of Muscovy, something that would certainly have happened, Aleksandr Shirokorad argues on the anniversary of the Bolshevik coup d’etat.

            Indeed, the Russian military commentator says, “without the Bolsheviks, the Russian sate in the best case would have been transformed into the Muscovite principality with borders of the 15^th century;” and “whether one likes it or not, only the Bolsheviks could hold the Power in the borders of 1917” (svpressa.ru/post/article/539737).

            At a time when people from many regions and republics are talking about independence for themselves and reducing the state centered on Moscow to that of Muscovy alone, what Shirokorad says is important. The center would not have held the rest of the country together had anyone but the Bolsheviks taken power.

            Instead, it would have likely fallen apart into many pieces, even if the largest one was a predominantly ethnic Russian core without significant access to the seas or control over much of what Russians today think of as their historically determined state extending from the Baltic to the Pacific and from the Arctic to the south.

            For a discussion of how a future disintegration of Russia might occur and why it could be limited by a Bolshevik-type strategy in Moscow, see my discussion of this issue a year ago at windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/11/future-disintegration-of-russian-state.html.

Russian Federal Subjects Putting Homeless Dogs to Sleep Form Deadly New ‘Archipelago’

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 6 – Since the end of 2023 when the governments of Russia’s federal subjects were authorized to kill homeless animals, a relatively small number of these regions and republics have put to death almost 16,000 dogs, thus forming what Takiye Dela journalist Aleksey Semyonov describes as a deadly new “dog archipelago” in Russia.

            Almost half of these deaths have taken place in Astrakhan Oblast, another 3300 dogs were put to sleep in Stavropol Kray, 1500 in the Tyva Republic, and 667 in Penza Oblast, he writes, with significantly fewer in other regions and republics (takiedela.ru/notes/arkhipelag-sobak/).

            Semyonov says he examined data from the 34 federal subjects where regional governments have adopted laws allowing the authorities to capture and then put down homeless dogs.  He notes that officials have been chary about releasing such data and acknowledges that these figures are almost certainly far from complete.

            Prior to the issuance in 2023 of  the federal law allowing the killing of stray dogs, regional officials were required to catch, then sterilize, vaccinate and release the dogs, an arrangement that did little to reduce the number of strays or the number of complaints of dog attacks by Russian residents.

            Even since then, about two-thirds of the federal subjects which have adopted laws allowing the killing of homeless dogs typically tried to find other means of getting the dogs off the streets, including adoption and dispatch to pounds and zoos. But in ten cases, the journalist says, the authorities have chosen execution as the primary means of control.

            According to Semyonov, the killing of dogs has done little to reduce the number of bites reported. Indeed, in nine regions where dogs were killed in significant numbers in 2025, only two showed declines and small ones at that regarding the number of bites that residents had suffered from homeless dogs.

            Animal rights activists are seeking to overturn these inhumane laws and hope that as people see that killing dogs doesn’t give them the results they want, they will be willing to support other measures to deal with what has long been a problem in Russia (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/05/if-duma-enacts-putin-regime-backed.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2026/09/more-than-half-of-russian-households.html).