Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 5 – Even if by
some miracle the Ukrainian problem were to be resolved, something unlikely to
happen, Mikhail Taratura says, relations between Russia and the US in
particular will remain bad for a long time, a reality that is independent of
what Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump may want.
In a Snob commentary yesterday, the Moscow commentator says that
reflects the underlying reality that American “politicians, the media and even
a certain part of the population which is usually indifferent to Russia does
not like us approximately in the same way as they did not in the years of
McCarthyism” (snob.ru/selected/entry/131952).
Many Russians
thought that after Trump was elected, Taratuta says, he would make a deal with
Putin, but “only now are we beginning to understand that one shouldn’t measure
America by a Russian yardstick and that, in contrast to us, in the United
States, there are several centers of power and each has its own distinctive
characteristics and relations to others.”
Those in the US establishment
opposed to Trump have played up the Russian factor and act according to the
following logic: “’Russia is absolute evil and a cunning opponent.’ Trump
either from stupidity or self-interest or perhaps because Putin has
compromising materials on him can’t or doesn’t want to oppose this enemy of the
United States.”
Consequently, according to this line
of thought, Trump “is acting against the interests of his country and cannot be
president; [and] from this the following simple algorithm is formed that the
more horrible and dangerous Russia is presented as being, the more criminal are
the actions of Trump, and thus the more probable his impeachment.”
As long as Trump
is in office, this will continue; but even after he leaves, one way or another,
“nothing can change at the level of principle in our relations,” Taratuta
says. That is because for the portion of
the US population that is left of center, “the cause of fear and nervousness”
is “Putin’s Russia and in the first instance Putin himself.”
Whether Putin’s Russia or Putin
deserve this reputation is “an essential question, but for our conversation,”
the commentator says, “it is a secondary one” because “even without Trump, the
image of a horrific enemy will live its own life for a long time even if
Russia” magically changed in ways the Americans want.
This will have a negative impact on
Russia because it will not be able to catch up with the West but rather fall
further and further behind. That will
continue until at least 2024 when apparently Putin will leave office and when
new people will be in the top positions in both Moscow and Washington.
Making predictions beyond that date
is more problematic, Taratuta says. But
it is clear that “even if in place of Putin comes someone softer like Medvedev
of the model of 2008-2012 or even the more liberal Aleksey Kudrin … geopolitical
competition – the apple of discord between our countries – apparently isn’t
going to disappear.”
“I cannot imagine,” the Moscow
commentator continues, “that any new Russian president could return Crimea to
Ukraine. This would be for him political suicide. I also doubt that Russia will
give up its efforts to be the arbiter on the post-Soviet space or to play a
significant role in world politics,” even if that forces it to live beyond its
means.
At the same time, it is at least
possible that six years from now, the US will come to understand that “the
world is changing, new centers of force and influence with their own interests
will appear. But that means that the US can’t remain forever in the status of
the leader of the world.”
Tension is thus going to continue
between the US and Russia, approximately in the same fashion as it did during
the Cold War. “The greatest achievement of that time was ‘peaceful coexistence’
which meant ‘we will not fight but we won’t cooperate.”
Of course, “another scenario is
possible,” the commentator says. The two countries could decide that they have
no choice but to cooperate in order to meet common challenges. “Everything is
possible,” even that; but it is hard to forecast such an outcome.
“To be friends, really friends, with
America in the foreseeable future is something that isn’t going to happen,”
Taratuta says. Instead, in the decades ahead, there will be tensions and
conflicts. “We are very different, and we know too little about one another and
thus do not understand to a catastrophic degree our opponents.”
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