Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 4 – The Russian
navy is on its way to losing its status a blue water force capable of
projecting power around the world and becoming a coast guard one able to defend
only “the nearby water zone” if defense ministry plans are carried out, according
to Russian shipbuilder Aleksandr Shishkin.
In today’s Vzglyad, he points to the words of Yury Borisov, deputy defense
minister, last week about Moscow’s plans for the next decade, plans that call
for coastal defense ships and numerous strategic submarines but no major
projects for the construction of major surface vessels (vz.ru/society/2017/12/4/897894.html).
Borisov’s remarks,
Shishkin says, came as a shock to many given Putin’s commitment to ensuring
that Russia was to be capable of projecting power anywhere in the world and have
a blue water navy second to none and also given recent naval parades highlighting
the challenges on the seas Russia now faces.
In the course of
his detailed article, the shipbuilder describes what Russia has and what it
doesn and why Moscow’s decision to focus only on coastal defense with ships
able to control only waters up to 500 nautical miles from Russia’ s shores allows
other powers to gain the upper hand in many theaters.
Shipbuilding by its very nature
requires long lead times, and thus, the decisions Moscow is making now will
determine its fleet size a decade from today.
What Moscow must recognize is that the average age of its major surface
ships has now passed the 25-year mark. (In 1917, the figure was 25.3 years.)
That means most need to be replaced or at least seriously refitted.
Only 17 percent of the surface fleet
is under ten years old, Shishkin says; and if Moscow carries through which its
plan to focus on coastal defense ships, that share will drop further, exactly
the opposite of what the country requires to meet its security needs now and
into the 2030s.
Some may think that this cutting
back in naval construction reflects problems in the economy, the shipbuilder
says; but he points out that the government is constantly saying that the crisis
is over and that the economy is on the rebound.
If that is the case, then it should be building more ships; if it isn’t,
then the cutbacks in surface naval construction reflect decisions to divert
funds to more immediate projects at the expense of longer term ones.
But one thing Russians in the
government and in the society should recognize is this, Shishkin says. If the
current plans remain in place, Russia will fall from a tie with China as a
naval power to a lower position, possibly a much lower one if other countries
start building and Russia does not.
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