Paul
Goble
Staunton, July 9 – Since winning approval
of constitutional changes including one that may allow him to stay in power 16
more years, Vladimir Putin has taken the offensive, attacking intellectuals (novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/07/09/86211-rossiya-na-izmene),
expanding attacks on journalists (newtimes.ru/articles/detail/195907), and moving against governors.
The
last may be the most fateful. Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter and
now Putin critic, says the arrest of LDPR Khabarovsk Governor Sergey Furgal on
murder conspiracy charges has three important political “subtexts” for the future
of Russian politics (echo.msk.ru/blog/gallyamov_a/2673747-echo/).
First of all, he says, “this is a
signal to all opposition candidates who are taking part in the gubernatorial
campaigns now just beginning: don’t think seriously about going for victory. If
you win, it will be still worse for you.” Those who win elections can be sent
to prison if Putin decides he needs to.
Second, “this is a signal to the gubernatorial
corps: don’t imagine that ‘coronavirus federalization’ is real: All power which
was transferred to localities during the epidemic must be returned intact.” By
making this demand in this way, Putin is making clear that for him politically,
the pandemic is over.
And third, “after the arrest of
Furgal, the LDPR will find it easier to show that it is a real opposition and
not some Kremlin spoiler. That is not unimportant in light of the growing
protest attitudes and the approaching Duma elections. Now the Zhirinovsky group
will be able with complete basis to seek the votes of dissatisfied voters.”
From Putin’s perspective, if they
vote in that way rather than for other opposition groups or even the KPRF, that
won’t be the worst outcome.
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